@13:30, ,5/13/19

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I am nervous about NOLa.

Florida has easy internet.

1

Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 27 minutes ago

The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through April 2019. Unfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only two recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate - and all four groups are generally trending down. [image: Unemployment by Level of Education]*Click on graph for larger image.* Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would... more » 

No surprise.

2

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a Super Hero? This Comic Book Thinks So

GEORGE GENE GUSTINES at NYT > Politics - 29 minutes ago

The representative from New York inspired a comic book anthology that arrives in stores on Wednesday.

She has been winning. 

3 

Welcome to TrumpTok, a Safe Space From Safe Spaces

JOHN HERRMAN at NYT > Politics - 29 minutes ago

On TikTok, there’s always a rally, and expressing support for the president makes for good content.

Blood lust from a mob. 

4 

Supreme Court Allows Antitrust Suit Against Apple to Proceed

ADAM LIPTAK at NYT > Politics - 29 minutes ago

Plaintiffs argued that the technology giant had used its monopoly power to raise the prices of iPhone apps.

There are other smart phones.

Apple software is not open source.

5 

Former Top Financial Regulators Warn Against Move to Ease Oversight of Firms

ALAN RAPPEPORT at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago

Ben S. Bernanke, Timothy F. Geithner, Jacob J. Lew and Janet L. Yellen said the Trump administration’s push to relax some controls could harm the American financial system’s stability.

Banking should not be exciting.

There is no right to profit.

6 

China Retaliates With Higher Tariffs as Trump Defends U.S. Approach

ANA SWANSON, KEITH BRADSHER and EILEEN SULLIVAN at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago

The president asserts that there is “no reason” Americans will pay tariffs, but economists and his own advisers say otherwise.

"The only way to win is not to fight"

7 

LA area Port Traffic Down Year-over-year in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago

*Special note:* The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. On the impact of the trade war, from Port of Long Beach Executive Director Mario Cordero: “With peak season approaching, we’re expecting imports to continue to grow, but it’s clear *exports are suffering under the weight of tariffs*.” emphasis added Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported a... more » 

No matter how this is not happy news.

8 

Trump Defends China Trade Policy as Advisers Say Costs Will Pass to Consumers

EILEEN SULLIVAN at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago

The president asserts that there is “no reason” Americans will pay tariffs, but economists and his own advisers say otherwise.

The advisors are correct. 

9 

Iowa’s Likely Outcome for 2020 Contenders: A Field of Broken Dreams

SHANE GOLDMACHER at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago

The nation’s first presidential caucus is always important, but with more than 20 Democrats running this time, the need for a strong showing is far more urgent.

some will scratch.

10 

Sidebar: Accused of ‘Terrorism’ for Putting Legal Materials Online

ADAM LIPTAK at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago

After Carl Malamud posted Georgia’s annotated laws, the state sued for copyright infringement. Both sides have asked the Supreme Court to step in.

No tort.

11 

Luring Refugees: N.Y. Cities Desperate for People Try a New Strategy

CHRISTINA GOLDBAUM at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago

The Trump administration has cut the small but steady influx of refugees into the United States, leading some cities to woo the ones who are already here.

Cheap labor is always popular.

12 

On Politics: Americans Will Face Economic Pain From the Trade War

NYT > Politics - 10 hours ago

President Trump’s decision to renew his trade war with China will hurt consumers — a contradiction to his claim that his tariffs are a mostly one-way payment by China.

Yes.

13 

Trump’s Trade War Escalation Will Exact Economic Pain, Adviser Says

JEANNA SMIALEK, JIM TANKERSLEY and MARK LANDLER at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago

President Trump’s decision to renew his trade war with China could inflict lasting damage on the American economy, but the ultimate impact depends on how far the president takes the fight.

Yes.

14 

Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 15 hours ago

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of May 12, 2019 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are down 22 and DOW futures are down 200 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $61.58 per barrel and Brent at $70.73 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $78 - so oil prices are down 10% to 15% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.85 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.86 per gallon, so gasoline prices... more » 

No crash this week.

15 

Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, Justices With Much in Common, Take Different Paths

ADAM LIPTAK at NYT > Politics - 19 hours ago

Justices Gorsuch and Kavanaugh were expected to a be jurisprudential twins. In both style and substance, they have embraced different approaches.

They will toe the line

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toe_the_line.

16 

Larry Kudlow Breaks With Trump, Saying ‘Both Sides Will Pay’ in Trade War With China

MARK LANDLER at NYT > Politics - 21 hours ago

Larry Kudlow’s acknowledgment was merely a recognition of Economics 101. But it flew in the face of one of President Trump’s favorite arguments: that trade wars are easy to win.

Alomst correct.

17 

Political Memo: ‘There He Goes Again’? Not Yet, as Biden Avoids Major Gaffes

JONATHAN MARTIN at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago

With aides enveloping him, Mr. Biden has not blurted anything out that delights his rivals or reinforces his image as America’s there-he-goes-again relative.

Biden is sticking to his script.

18 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 11, 2019

Tony Wikrent at Ian Welsh - 1 day ago

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 11, 2019 This post is by Tony Wikrent “‘Purity Tests’: How Corporate Media Describe Progressives Standing Up for Principles [CommonDreams.com, via Avedon’s Sideshow 4-28-19] “The phrase is code for elites being pressured in ways they don’t like, and is often a shield against legitimate criticism of corruption or dependence on […]

A graphical presentation of energy sources and sinks in North America.
See the article for a readable version.

19 

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago

From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 3.0% for 1Q GDP. ... *2Q remains at 2.1%*. [May 10 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at *2.2% for 2019:Q*2. [May 10 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the *second quarter of 2019 is 1.6 percent on May 9*, down from 1.7 percent on May 3. [May 9 estimate] CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2% annualized in Q2.

Small.

20 

Trump Tries to Bring Hungary’s Orban in From the Cold

BENJAMIN NOVAK and PATRICK KINGSLEY at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago

President Trump’s audience with Prime Minister Viktor Orban will be a meeting of like minds. It’s also an effort to get Mr. Orban to prioritize U.S. interests.

Trump is fleaing the heat.

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