The Upshot
Health Spending Forecast: No Drastic Rise, but Slowdown Seems Over
The big question is whether health spending will reset to the slow rate of recent years or return to the long-term pattern of high growth.http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/14/health-care-hatred/
Health Care Hatred
The good news about Obamacare so far
shouldn’t be considered disputable. Enrollments really are above
target; multiple independent surveys show a sharp drop in the uninsured
population; health care cost growth really has slowed dramatically,
whatever the reason; the newly insured are generally satisfied with
their coverage. If you want to insist that big problems lie ahead, fine
(but please explain), but the facts so far are pretty good.
But what I’m getting —
and what you get whenever you suggest that things are going OK — is an
outpouring, not so much of disagreement, as of fury. People get
red-in-the-face angry, practically to the point of incoherence, over the
suggestion that it’s not a disaster.
What’s that about? Partly it may be Obama derangement syndrome. I was struck by mail I received after my last column
accusing me of shilling for Obama and refusing to admit what a disaster
he’s been — when the column didn’t so much as mention the guy.
Obamacare was a label stuck on the Affordable Care Act by its opponents,
to tie the president to the disaster to come; now they’re livid that
it, and he, are turning out OK.
Partly it may be
general hatred for any kind of program that helps the less fortunate,
especially if they happen to be, you know, not white. Such programs must
be disasters — don’t bother me with evidence.
And partly, I suspect,
there’s now an element of shame. If this thing is actually working,
everyone who yelled about how it would be a disaster ends up looking
fairly stupid.
But, you know, sometimes looks don’t deceive."
2
Opinion
Prescription for Happiness
A clinical social worker suggests that avoiding drugs and teenage pregnancy is crucial among the disadvantaged.My guess is the prescription is general.
3
Real Estate
$650,000 Homes in Philadelphia, Florida and Tennessee
This week’s properties include a beach house in Florida, a stone house in Tennessee and a rowhouse in Philadelphia.I do not want a pool.
Most of these features are bugs.
4
Sports
David Hearn Leads on Home Turf
Hearn moved into position to become the first Canadian to win the Canadian Open in 61 years, taking a two-stroke lead over Bubba Watson and Jason Day.
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| CWS: J. Quintana (5-9, 3.56 ERA) | ||||||
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5
U.S.
Video: Video of Sandra Bland’s Booking in Jail
Judge Carbett J. Duhon III of Waller County, Tex., narrates a video showing Sandra Bland’s booking at the county jail that was released to dispel rumors circulating about her death.No information.
There should be more in this record.
6
The Upshot
A $15 Minimum Wage. But Why Just for Fast-Food Workers?
A wage increase applying to only a narrow segment of the economy is a recipe for unintended consequences.The political establishment does not want to fix the bottom of the economy.
7
World
Litvinenko Poisoning Inquiry Nears End as Russian Refuses to Testify
The move by Dmitri V. Kovtun, a former Soviet Army officer, clears the way for final statements before the judge prepares a report on the ex-K.G.B. officer’s death.Putin will not establish blame in the assassination.
8
Opinion
Who Should Be Allowed to Compete as a Female Athlete?
Athletes who participate as females in junior competitions, and continue to do so at the senior level, should not have their eligibility questioned.Winning in court does not establish a win on the track.
Undopped and female genetically is enough to allow competition.
9
Business Day
Video: The Fed’s Button on the Economy
When it comes to raising or lowering interest rates, what the Fed is really trying to do is balance growth and inflation. But they have a limited set of tools to accomplish their goal.http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/07/28/second-best-macroeconomics/
Second-best Macroeconomics
There’s a
paradox about economic policy since the Great Recession, one that is
often acknowledged implicitly but rarely stated directly. On one side,
the economic problems facing both the United States and Europe have been
quite straightforward and comprehensible. On the other side, the debate
over actual policy has been tortured and confused, with a general sense
even among aficionados that the tools being deployed are inadequate and
come with troubling side effects.
Specifically, the
whole western world has spent years suffering from a severe shortfall of
aggregate demand; in Europe a severe misalignment of national costs and
prices has been overlaid on this aggregate problem. These aren’t hard
problems to diagnose, and simple macroeconomic models — which have
worked very well, although nobody believes it — tell us how to solve
them. Conventional monetary policy is unavailable thanks to the zero
lower bound, but fiscal policy is still on tap, as is the possibility of
raising the inflation target. As for misaligned costs, that’s where
exchange rate adjustments come in. So no worries: just hit the big
macroeconomic That Was Easy button, and soon the troubles will be over.
Except that all the
natural answers to our problems have been ruled out politically.
Austerians not only block the use of fiscal policy, they drive it in the
wrong direction; a rise in the inflation target is impossible given
both central-banker prejudices and the power of the goldbug right.
Exchange rate adjustment is blocked by the disappearance of European
national currencies, plus extreme fear over technical difficulties in
reintroducing them.
As a result, we’re stuck with highly problematic second-best policies like quantitative easing and internal devaluation.
In case you don’t know, “second best” is an economic term of art. It comes from a classic 1956 paper by Lipsey and Lancaster,
which showed that policies which might seem to distort markets may
nonetheless help the economy if markets are already distorted by other
factors. For example, suppose that a developing country’s poorly
functioning capital markets are failing to channel savings into
manufacturing, even though it’s a highly profitable sector. Then tariffs
that protect manufacturing from foreign competition, raise profits, and
therefore make more investment possible can improve economic welfare.
The problems with
second best as a policy rationale are familiar. For one thing, it’s
always better to address existing distortions directly, if you can —
second best policies generally have undesirable side effects (e.g.,
protecting manufacturing from foreign competition discourages
consumption of industrial goods, may reduce effective domestic
competition, and so on). There’s also a political economy concern, which
is that in a complicated world you can come up with a second best
rationale for practically anything. Somewhere the Chicago economist
Harry Johnson wrote (this is from memory) that in practice “second best
policies are always devised by third-best economists working for
fourth-best politicians” — harsh, but you can see his point.
But here we are, with
anything resembling first-best macroeconomic policy ruled out by
political prejudice, and the distortions we’re trying to correct are
huge — one global depression can ruin your whole day. So we have
quantitative easing, which is of uncertain effectiveness, probably
distorts financial markets at least a bit, and gets trashed all the time
by people stressing its real or presumed faults; someone like me is
then put in the position of having to defend a policy I would never have
chosen if there seemed to be a viable alternative.
In a deep sense, I
think the same thing is involved in trying to come up with less terrible
policies in the euro area. The deal that Greece and its creditors
should have reached — large-scale debt relief, primary surpluses kept
small and not ramped up over time — is a far cry from what Greece should
and probably would have done if it still had the drachma: big
devaluation now. The only way to defend the kind of thing that was
actually on the table was as the least-worst option given that the right
response was ruled out.
Which makes me ask
myself the question: Do people like me spend too much time being limited
by what is presumed to be politically practical? Should we devote more
time to trying to widen the range of options, to pointing out that we
really would be much better off if we threw off the fetters of
conventional deficit fears, the 2 percent inflation target, and the
extremely ill-advised euro project?"
10
Sports
With New Leader, Changes Could Come to Cup Events
Candidates for the International Tennis Federation’s presidency are proposing changes to features including annual competition, home-and-away ties and the best-of-five-set format.http://nytimes.stats.com/mlb/scoreboard.asp
Start 19:10
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| W: J. Quintana (6-9) L: R. Porcello (5-11) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CWS HR: A. Eaton (9) A. Ramirez (5) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bos HR: M. Napoli (12) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Preview | Box | Gameview |
11
Opinion
The High Cost of Medications
A reader with a chronic disease discusses the sky-high cost of drugs."Your money or your life"
12
U.S.
Gay and Transgender Catholics Urge Pope Francis to Take a Stand
A large group seeks to meet the pope during his first visit to the United States, in September, to urge him to fully include gay and transgender Catholics in the church.The church cannot change doctrine.
13
Opinion
The Challenges That Remain After Marriage Equality
The same-sex marriage victory should not be regarded as the coda of the gay rights movement while entrenched discrimination endures.Moving the cultural conservatives is always an effort.
14
World
French Foreign Minister Arrives in Tehran
The visit by Laurent Fabius was one of the first in what was likely to be a string of trips by European officials seeking closer ties with Iran.He has a good idea.
15
U.S.
Massachusetts: Bulger Wanted to Testify at His Trial, His Lawyer Argues
The lawyer for the former Boston mob boss James (Whitey) Bulger went before a three-judge federal panel in Boston on Monday.James (Whitey) Bulger will die in prison.
16
N.Y. / Region
Ex-Police Chief in Westchester County Pleads Guilty to Child Pornography Charge
Brian Fanelli, who led the Mount Pleasant agency, admitted to using home computers to swap photos and videos of children as young as 7 engaged in sex acts.Brian Fanelli knows the consequences of his plea.
17
World
Brazil Arrests Nuclear Chief in Widening of Graft Case
Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva is accused of taking more than $1.3 million in bribes as chief executive of Eletronuclear, a company that operates nuclear plants.The government of Brazil is collapsing.
18
Health
Praluent Looks Cheap to Those With Extreme Cholesterol
About a million Americans have an inherited condition that defies cholesterol-lowering statins. Even at $14,600 a year, a new drug provides hope.Another robbery.
19
N.Y. / Region
Bryant Park’s Fence Is Removed for Repairs. In Its Place, a Bench.
When the fence was taken down at the Midtown Manhattan park, the public gained a new place to sit and a new way to crush the flower beds.Mild steel is shockingly temporary.
There has been no wrought iron since the Bessemer converter became standard.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bessemer_process#Bessemer_converter
20
Travel
Cuba Through the Eyes of the Poet Richard Blanco
With his new blog, the Cuban-American poet hopes to connect Cubans on the island and in the United States.Cuba is more than an imaginary place.
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