Krugman:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/11/the-rights-stuff/
The Right’s Stuff
Many conservatives, including old-line relatively moderate conservatives, were outraged by the political thesis of my book The Conscience of a Liberal
(first published before the 2008 election) — which was that extreme
movement conservatives took over the GOP a long time ago, were able to
win elections by exploiting white resentment, but were on the verge of
losing their grip thanks to demographic change.
But that’s pretty much exactly what Sam Tanenhaus, the Times book review editor and a long-time conservative, is now saying.
In COAL I also argued that the place to begin a new liberal agenda was with health care reform, more or less along the lines of the Massachusetts reform, which I believed was finally achievable. (I hoped for a public option, but oh well).
I sometimes get people declaring that I don’t know anything about politics; I’m willing to agree, with the proviso that you also admit that *nobody* knows anything about politics. But I don’t think that I’m doing all that badly here …"
But that’s pretty much exactly what Sam Tanenhaus, the Times book review editor and a long-time conservative, is now saying.
In COAL I also argued that the place to begin a new liberal agenda was with health care reform, more or less along the lines of the Massachusetts reform, which I believed was finally achievable. (I hoped for a public option, but oh well).
I sometimes get people declaring that I don’t know anything about politics; I’m willing to agree, with the proviso that you also admit that *nobody* knows anything about politics. But I don’t think that I’m doing all that badly here …"
Hearsay Economics
Jonathan Chait is boggled by Joe Scarborough’s latest rant. (Dear Jon: I am not
“prickly”: I’m aggressive and annoying. But that’s by design, and I
only do it when the situation calls for it.) What’s really striking is
Scarborough’s certainty that we’re experiencing “explosive” spending
growth, which is very much not the case:
How do JoScar and others like him come by such misconceptions?
Well, I’ve gradually come to the realization that most of the commentariat doesn’t do what, say Martin Wolf or I do — grub around in published data, read reports, and all that. Instead, they rely on what they heard somebody say the facts are; hearsay economics. Of course, they don’t listen to any old bum on the street; they listen to people of repute, people in their circle. But the repute in question has nothing to do with technical expertise; hey, Admiral Mullen is a serious person, so if he says something on any subject, such as economics, it must be solid.
And where do the reputable people get their information? Why, it’s what they heard somebody in their circle say. It’s hearsay economics all the way down.
You can see how this leads to the incestuous amplification I’ve written about. Everyone they know — tous le monde, as Tom Wolfe used to say — says that we have exploding spending and the deficit is a crucial problem. How could it not be true?
It may seem hard to believe that this sort of petty small-group sociology exerts a vast influence on actual policy, and that it is actually responsible for millions of lost jobs. But the more I look at it, the more that seems to be right."
Well, I’ve gradually come to the realization that most of the commentariat doesn’t do what, say Martin Wolf or I do — grub around in published data, read reports, and all that. Instead, they rely on what they heard somebody say the facts are; hearsay economics. Of course, they don’t listen to any old bum on the street; they listen to people of repute, people in their circle. But the repute in question has nothing to do with technical expertise; hey, Admiral Mullen is a serious person, so if he says something on any subject, such as economics, it must be solid.
And where do the reputable people get their information? Why, it’s what they heard somebody in their circle say. It’s hearsay economics all the way down.
You can see how this leads to the incestuous amplification I’ve written about. Everyone they know — tous le monde, as Tom Wolfe used to say — says that we have exploding spending and the deficit is a crucial problem. How could it not be true?
It may seem hard to believe that this sort of petty small-group sociology exerts a vast influence on actual policy, and that it is actually responsible for millions of lost jobs. But the more I look at it, the more that seems to be right."
It’s Always 1923
David Glasner
writes sensibly about the “currency war” issue and related subjects,
set off by recent commentary by Irwin Stelzer. As Glasner says,
expansionary monetary policy can cause currency depreciation — but it is
not currency manipulation. There’s a world of difference between
Chinese-style intervention-plus-tight-money and either the Fed’s
quantitative easing or Japan’s new turn to inflation targeting.
But what really seems to get Glasner going is Stelzer’s bad history — bad history that is, one has to say, very widely accepted out there. No, the 1923 hyperinflation didn’t bring Hitler to power; it was the Brüning deflation and depression. Hard money and a gold standard obsession, not excessive money printing, was the proximate disaster.
One thing Glasner doesn’t do, though, is point out not just that Stelzer seems weirdly obsessed with inflation risks despite the complete absence of any evidence, but the unchanging nature of that obsession. A quick bit of googling says that Stelzer has been warning about an inflationary explosion for at least four years (pdf). (In the same piece he also insisted that it would be very hard to find anyone to buy all the bonds the US would be issuing).
This gets at one of the true wonders of this ongoing economic crisis: the inflation-and-soaring-rates crowd has been wrong, again and again, year after year, yet seems completely undaunted in its certainty that it possesses The Truth. You might think that someone, at some point, would have a creeping suspicion that he might be working with the wrong model. But it never seems to happen."
"126 Comments
But what really seems to get Glasner going is Stelzer’s bad history — bad history that is, one has to say, very widely accepted out there. No, the 1923 hyperinflation didn’t bring Hitler to power; it was the Brüning deflation and depression. Hard money and a gold standard obsession, not excessive money printing, was the proximate disaster.
One thing Glasner doesn’t do, though, is point out not just that Stelzer seems weirdly obsessed with inflation risks despite the complete absence of any evidence, but the unchanging nature of that obsession. A quick bit of googling says that Stelzer has been warning about an inflationary explosion for at least four years (pdf). (In the same piece he also insisted that it would be very hard to find anyone to buy all the bonds the US would be issuing).
This gets at one of the true wonders of this ongoing economic crisis: the inflation-and-soaring-rates crowd has been wrong, again and again, year after year, yet seems completely undaunted in its certainty that it possesses The Truth. You might think that someone, at some point, would have a creeping suspicion that he might be working with the wrong model. But it never seems to happen."
"126 Comments
Where Do “Facts” Come From?
Just
a quick observation: for the past couple of days I’ve been seeing in a
lot of places, including comments on this blog, the assertion that
federal spending has risen 37 percent under Obama — that specific
number. Does anyone know where it’s coming from? Because if I look at
the actual data,
I see federal spending rising from $3.475 trillion in fourth-quarter
2008 to $3.917 trillion in fourth-quarter 2012 — a rise of 12.7 percent.
Obviously this is coming from somewhere, and being broadcast by Rush or somebody. But it’s still kind of amazing how a totally wrong number can become part of what everyone on the right just knows to be true."
Yesterday:
Obviously this is coming from somewhere, and being broadcast by Rush or somebody. But it’s still kind of amazing how a totally wrong number can become part of what everyone on the right just knows to be true."
Yesterday:
1
Business Day
Business and Labor Unite to Try to Alter Immigration Laws
Two oft-feuding groups, the A.F.L.-C.I.O. and the Chamber of Commerce, have formed an alliance to find a way for immigrants illegally in the United States to gain citizenship.
2
N.Y. / Region
Montefiore’s President, Influential in Albany, Is Unknown by Design
Behind the scenes, where he holds court with political and business leaders as a community activist, Dr. Steven M. Safyer has become one of the most powerful figures in the Bronx.
3
U.S.
A Growing Trend: Young, Liberal and Open to Big Government
In a trend that is surprising pollsters and jangling the nerves of Republicans, a majority of young people embraces President Obama’s notion that government can be a constructive force.
4
Business Day
In Italy, a Factory Too Fragile for Its Time
For nearly 300 years, the Richard Ginori factory produced singular, handcrafted and elegant porcelain tableware, but the factory was declared bankrupt in January.
5
Health
Promising Depression Therapy
Transcranial direct current stimulation, which uses a very mild current to stimulate nerve cells, has shown promise in several studies.
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