1
2
Science
Swift Diving in Bali
The expedition ends in Bali, with a dangerous dive to both healthy and troubled reefs.
3
U.S.
Kentuckians Don’t Rule Out a Star as a Potential Senator
The actress Ashley Judd, a possible challenger to Senator Mitch McConnell, has already become a target of a Republican “Super PAC.”
4
World
The Mumbai/New York Photo Project: In Transit
People seem to be on the move all the time, in both cities.
5
6
Opinion
What Data Can’t Do
Data can’t account for everything in our experience, nor serve as the only guide for our thinking, planning and decision-making.Data, Stimulus, and Human Nature
David Brooks
writes about the limitations of Big Data, and makes some good points.
But he goes astray, I think, when he touches on a subject near and dear
to my own data-driven heart:
For the truth is that there were some clear and very different predictions from each side of the debate — not about the success of the Obama stimulus, which even advocates like yours truly warned would fall far short, but about interest rates, inflation, and the effects of austerity policies. On these predictions, the data have spoken clearly; the problem is that people don’t want to hear.
And really, would you have expected otherwise? It would be lovely to live in a world in which the failure of interest rates to soar as predicted would lead Brian Riedl of Heritage and Niall Ferguson to concede that their anti-stimulus critiques of 2009 were based on a completely wrong model; in which the economic downturns that have followed austerity policies almost everywhere they have been applied would lead Alberto Alesina to concede that his work on expansionary austerity was probably flawed, and lead George Osborne to proclaim publicly that he led Britain down the wrong path. But such things very rarely happen, and the fact that they don’t happen has nothing to do with the limitations of data.
Indeed, such things rarely happen even in fields of endeavor that are largely insulated from politics, and in which the ethos is supposed to reward objectivity over ego. Science, Max Planck declared, progresses funeral by funeral. If quantum mechanics needs to rely on mortality to prevail, how much more so must this be true of Keynesian macroeconomics?
That said, if you look at players in the macro debate who would not face huge personal and/or political penalties for admitting that they were wrong, you actually do see data having a considerable impact. Most notably, the IMF has responded to the actual experience of austerity by conceding that it was probably underestimating fiscal multipliers by a factor of about 3.
So yes, it has been disappointing to see so many people sticking to their positions on fiscal policy despite overwhelming evidence that those positions are wrong. But the fault lies not in our data, but in ourselves."
Morality has no place.
For example, we’ve had huge debates over the best economic stimulus, with mountains of data, and as far as I know not a single major player in this debate has been persuaded by data to switch sides.Actually, he’s not quite right there, as I’ll explain in a minute. But it’s certainly true that neither stimulus advocates nor hard-line stimulus opponents have changed their positions. The question is, does this say something about the limits of data — or is it just a commentary on human nature, especially in a highly politicized environment?
For the truth is that there were some clear and very different predictions from each side of the debate — not about the success of the Obama stimulus, which even advocates like yours truly warned would fall far short, but about interest rates, inflation, and the effects of austerity policies. On these predictions, the data have spoken clearly; the problem is that people don’t want to hear.
And really, would you have expected otherwise? It would be lovely to live in a world in which the failure of interest rates to soar as predicted would lead Brian Riedl of Heritage and Niall Ferguson to concede that their anti-stimulus critiques of 2009 were based on a completely wrong model; in which the economic downturns that have followed austerity policies almost everywhere they have been applied would lead Alberto Alesina to concede that his work on expansionary austerity was probably flawed, and lead George Osborne to proclaim publicly that he led Britain down the wrong path. But such things very rarely happen, and the fact that they don’t happen has nothing to do with the limitations of data.
Indeed, such things rarely happen even in fields of endeavor that are largely insulated from politics, and in which the ethos is supposed to reward objectivity over ego. Science, Max Planck declared, progresses funeral by funeral. If quantum mechanics needs to rely on mortality to prevail, how much more so must this be true of Keynesian macroeconomics?
That said, if you look at players in the macro debate who would not face huge personal and/or political penalties for admitting that they were wrong, you actually do see data having a considerable impact. Most notably, the IMF has responded to the actual experience of austerity by conceding that it was probably underestimating fiscal multipliers by a factor of about 3.
So yes, it has been disappointing to see so many people sticking to their positions on fiscal policy despite overwhelming evidence that those positions are wrong. But the fault lies not in our data, but in ourselves."
Morality has no place.
7
Science
A Strategy to Prevent the Next Fukushima
Researchers weigh the possibility of using a ceramic material to replace potentially explosive zirconium in reactor components.
8
Opinion
Is There Room for Varied Approaches to Energy and Climate Progress?
"My way or the highway" environmentalism and the Keystone pipeline fight.
9
Science
Recent Developments in Health and Science News
“The Week” highlights recent developments in health and science news and glances at what’s ahead. In this column: help for the blind and a gene mutation that may explain the appearance of East Asians.
10
11
Sunday Review
Doctors Who Don’t Speak Out
While experts say that doctors have an ethical obligation to warn their peers about bad drugs or medical devices, they don’t always do so.
12
N.Y. / Region
Can Bronx Be a Destination? The Hope Is for Nights at a Time
The boutique hotel has come to the borough, which developers are giving another look thanks to its relatively low real estate prices and other factors.
13
Health
DNA Test for Rare Disorders Becomes More Routine
As the cost of genetic sequencing plunges, more people, especially parents, are using it to find disease-causing mutations.
14
Opinion
Going Green Is Good for the Economy
Readers respond to a Sunday Review article by David Leonhardt, “It’s Not Easy Being Green.”
15
Booming
Celebrating Your Big Sober Gay Birthday
Newly in recovery, a gay man wonders: cancel the party or carry on?
16
Your Money
Jumping Aboard the Train, as if There Won’t Be Another
Ominous developments in Washington haven’t seemed to crash the stock market’s party. But a strategist says that while the bull market will continue, it may be in a final stage.
17
N.Y. / Region
‘Organic’ Dry Cleaners Can Serve as Barometer of Gentrification
Businesses promoting the “organic” and “natural” service have blanketed affluent Manhattan neighborhoods and crept farther afield.
18
Arts
Cambodia Sees Ethical Conflict in Import Panel
Cambodia has asked that Jane A. Levine, who sits on a State Department panel on cultural property issues, recuse herself because her employer, Sotheby’s, is named in a lawsuit over an ancient Khmer statue it seeks to sell.
19
Opinion
Charting the Future of the High Seas
Good governance can increase the ocean’s benefits, bringing improvements in such areas as economic growth, security and human rights.
20
Science
Prison and the Poverty Trap
Many social scientists no longer think that America’s shift to longer prison terms has been a help to poor neighborhoods.
1
Business Day
New Comparison Shopping Site for Pet Owners
A new Web site aims to make comparison shopping for pet supplies easier.
2
Science
Video Game Vigilance (1 Letter)
3
4
7
Magazine
Sudden-Onset Madness
8
9
10
Business Day
Readers Weigh In on Working Your Way Through College
Readers offer opinions on student loan debt aversion, the ramifications of too many working hours and the obligations of responsible and accountable parents.
11
12
13
14
Business Day
A Fed Official Calls for New Power
While some say the central bank's safety-net role has rightfully been scaled back, the head of the New York Fed argues that it should be expanded.
15
16
Business Day
In the Year of the Snake, Challenges for the Chinese Economy
China is back to work after a weeklong holiday to celebrate the Chinese New Year. Questions about economic data and cyber attacks remain.
18
19
20
No comments:
Post a Comment