@11:50, 3/10/13

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1

Opinion

Death in the Forests

Mar 7, 2013

China’s voracious appetite for ivory continues to devastate Africa’s elephants.

Ivory; Elephants; Editorials; Endangered and Extinct Species; Poaching (Wildlife); 

We will not end the Chinese demand for ivory.

We can feed it something else.

Methadone works after a fashion for opioid drugs.

Plastic worked for a time.  Process and price have destroyed that.

Bakelite has a market in the US as a now banned material.

Melamine could be added to that group.

Carved cellulose acetate passed very quickly.

There has been a great deal of work on growing organs in the lab.

Tusks are just another organ.

Farming works better than hunting.

The Circus world calls elephants "rubber pigs".

The Chinese should grow their own ivory. 

We can do it for them at a price.

  

2

Opinion

Sunday Dialogue: Science and Politics

Mar 10, 2013

Is anti-science sentiment threatening public health policy?

Science and Technology; United States Politics and Government; Creationism and Intelligent Design; Social Conditions and Trends; Smoking and Tobacco; Medicine and Health; Gun Control; Research; 

The faithful do not learn.

The faithful must not lead.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Profession

"A profession is a vocation founded upon specialized educational training, the purpose of which is to supply objective counsel and service to others, for a direct and definite compensation, wholly apart from expectation of other business gain.^[1] "

3

Opinion

Intensive Care

By MARGO RABB | Mar 10, 2013

If my family history taught me anything, it was that hospitals meant death. So when my newborn son contracted a dangerous disease, I braced for the worst.

Babies and Infants; Hospitals; Nursing and Nurses; 

For both mother and child.

I talk with the other side of the professional barrier.

4

Opinion

Don’t Be Afraid of Genetic Modification

By EMILY ANTHES | Mar 10, 2013

We shouldn’t let political calculations or unfounded fears keep safe genetically modified animals off the market.

Genetic Engineering; Salmon; Livestock; Presidential Election of 2012; Biotechnology; 

http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

http://www.wunderground.com/severe/europe.asp

What I fear is the Monsanto legal department and others like it.

5

Health

Stroke Prevention Device Misses Key Goal in Study

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS | Mar 10, 2013

Boston Scientific’s Watchman may not be better than a drug that is used now to prevent strokes, heart-related deaths and blood clots in people with atrial fibrillation in the long term.

Stroke; Medical Devices; Drugs (Pharmaceuticals); Research; 

Not a concern here at this time.   

This reads as a negative report on the mechanical device.

6

U.S.

House G.O.P. Plans a Budget That Retains Tax Increases and Medicare Cuts

By JONATHAN WEISMAN | Mar 7, 2013

The House easily passed legislation to keep the government financed through September, raising pressure on the Senate to follow suit quickly.

Federal Budget (US); United States Politics and Government; Medicare; Income Tax; 

This bill will fail in the senate.  If it does not it should be vetoed.

Krugman:

"March 9, 2013, 8:31 am78 Comments

Gone Deficit Gone

So says the CBO, although not directly.
Anyone who is serious (as opposed to Serious) about matters fiscal knows that it’s highly misleading just to focus on the raw deficit numbers (ONE TRILLION DOLLARS), for two reasons.
First, fluctuations in the deficit tend to be driven by the business cycle; when the economy slumps, revenues fall and some kinds of expenditure, like unemployment benefits, rise. You want to take out these “automatic stabilizers” when assessing the underlying state of the budget.
Second, we don’t have to balance the budget to have a sustainable fiscal position; all we need is to ensure that debt grows more slowly than GDP.
So CBO is now out with its latest report on automatic stabilizers. It estimates that in fiscal 2013 these stabilizers will amount to $422 billion, accounting for just about half of a projected $845 billion deficit. So the cyclically adjusted deficit will be $423 billion.
How does this compare with the deficit consistent with fiscal sustainability? Well, there’s about $11.5 trillion in federal debt in the hands of the public. A reasonable, indeed fairly conservative guess is that nominal GDP will in future grow by 4 percent per year, half from real growth and half from inflation. This means that the sustainable deficit is 4 percent of $11.5 trillion, or $460 billion. Hey, we’re there!
And next year the adjusted deficit is projected to be much smaller:

Yes, late this decade deficits will start to rise again thanks to rising health costs and an aging population, yada yada. But I have yet to hear a coherent argument about why the long-term problem of paying for the benefits we want — which will eventually have to be resolved through a combination of cost savings and revenue increases — should constrain our fiscal policy right now, in the midst of what remains a terrible economic slump.
And I would say that the figure above is, in fact, a portrait of deeply irresponsible fiscal policy — because it is just crazy that in this deeply depressed economy we are now pursuing a fiscal policy that is tighter than the policy we followed at the height of the housing bubble.
So let’s try to stop doing that. And everyone repeat with me: there is no deficit problem."

7

Travel

As You Travel, Making Money Work for You

By EMILY BRENNAN | Mar 10, 2013

The travel blogger known as Nomadic Matt offers tips on setting a daily travel budget, choosing the right credit cards and avoiding transaction fees abroad.

Budget Travel; Travel and Vacations; Credit Cards; 

This reads like good advice.

I will do an American Express

8

Opinion

Putting Corporate Cash to Work

Mar 10, 2013

What should profitable companies like Apple do with their growing piles of money?

Corporate Taxes; United States Economy; Corporations; 

The cash is idle because the managements see no reason to deploy it.

The situation is called a "liquidity trap".

9

Opinion

Of Fraud and Filet

By FRANK BRUNI | Mar 10, 2013

Food surprises on both sides of the Atlantic are reminders that almost every bite we take is a leap of faith.

Frauds and Swindling; Food; Meat; Seafood; 

Frank Bruni either cooks at home or eats with close friends who cook.

10

Magazine

Should I Pay for a Gas-Station Attendant’s Mistake?

By CHUCK KLOSTERMAN | Mar 10, 2013

The difference between what is reasonable and what is “right.”

Ethics (Personal); Automobile Service Stations; Ethicist, The (Times Column); 

Yes

11

Opinion

No to Keystone. Yes to Crazy.

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN | Mar 10, 2013

If the oil pipeline is approved, President Obama will need to make it up to his green base.

Keystone Pipeline System; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Environment; Federal Taxes (US); Demonstrations, Protests, and Riots; 

I have no interest in electing a Republican in the near future.

If the president plays this right the pipe line gets built and never used.

Get good relations with Venezuela and the gulf refineries will have the oil they were built to handle at a lower price than the tar sands can deliver.

 

12

Opinion

Student Debt and the Economy

Mar 10, 2013

Borrowers with private loans need help before they are ruined by default.

Student Loans; Credit and Debt; United States Economy; Personal Finances; Recession and Depression; Banking and Financial Institutions; Consumer Protection; 

This looks to be several ways to pay for law school.

An alternate way would be to  make the student a loan from the bank of mom to be repaid on passing the bar or as soon thereafter as possible.

The then graduate repays the loan with an ordinary loan in the former students name.  The interest rate is low and there is no "government guarantee".  If bankruptcy is necessary the loan can be discharged.
The bank of mom is made whole(repaid ) and the distraction of working while studying full time is avoided. 
I don't know why the bank of mom gets paid.
My paternal aunt took her inheritance early when she was setting up and doing a doctorate simultaneously.
Before doing such a thing consider the tax implications for all parties.
 

13

Real Estate

Q & A

By JAY ROMANO | Mar 10, 2013

Updating a Rental’s Kitchen; Updating a Rental’s Kitchen; No Dogs for Condo Renters.

Renting and Leasing (Real Estate); Kitchens; Dogs;

Getting permission from the powers obviates legal processes.
You will have to talk to the owner or the owner's agent in any case.
Go with a list.

14

U.S.

Energy and Climate on the White House Agenda

By JOHN M. BRODER | Mar 8, 2013

President Obama hosted a casual off-the-record meeting with a diverse group of energy and climate change experts at the White House on Thursday evening, officials and participants said.

Alternative and Renewable Energy; Solar Energy; United States Politics and Government; Wind Power;

This list reads like a gathering of real powers.  I expect a second meeting in a month or so.  This should be a markup session on the participants proposals. 
There is limited money at this point.
It is time to assign priorities and resources.

15

Fashion & Style

Though Now Apart, We Faced a Common Enemy

By JACQUELINE SHEEHAN | Mar 10, 2013

After our divorce, we didn’t want to lose the friendship. We still helped each other through the hard times.

Divorce, Separations and Annulments; Friendship; Marriages; Modern Love (Times Column);

OK  
(Simple expository prose really helps to prevent bad guessing.)

16

World

Recipe for Divided Europe: Add Horse, Then Stir

By ANDREW HIGGINS | Mar 10, 2013

At a time of immense strains brought on by the euro crisis and austerity, the horse meat scandal has brought into the open the deep divisions that bedevil Europe.

Horses; Meat; Labeling and Labels; Regulation and Deregulation of Industry; Frauds and Swindling;

There is other work that needs to get done. 
The Euro is a distraction and a parasite.
Europe has problems.  The US restructured after about twelve years.
Since then we have done constant modification.  How can Europe hope to do better.  They have our example if they can understand it.  Most of our population does not understand us.

17

Opinion

The Good, Racist People

By TA-NEHISI COATES | Mar 7, 2013

What does it mean when Forest Whitaker is frisked at a deli?

Race and Ethnicity; Discrimination; Blacks;

Works both ways. 
Constant attention and effort are necessary but not sufficient.
The colonial governments found a powerful self perpetuating tool.

18

Business Day

The Shrinking Government

By FLOYD NORRIS | Mar 8, 2013

The job market is expanding, and now even construction jobs are growing. But the dark spot remains government employment. Its continued decline set a post-World War II record in February.

Building (Construction); Government Employees; Labor and Jobs;

When the jobless workforce shrinks, the jobless claims shrink.

The workforce shrank because benefits were exhausted and those who could claim social security did.  

"March 10, 2013, 4:22 pm40 Comments

Crude

Mark Thoma on Jeff Sachs. Also Ryan Cooper. And here’s what happens if you actually read the links from Scarborough-Sachs: you find that what I actually said bears no resemblance to their, ahem, crude caricature of my views.
The truth is that I came into this crisis with what I think can be described as a pretty sophisticated view of liquidity-trap economics, based on my own work on Japan in the late 1990s and that of Mike Woodford and Gauti Eggertsson. This view made some predictions — about interest rates, about the effect of large increases in the monetary base, and about the size of fiscal multipliers — that were very much at odds with what a lot of people were saying; those predictions have been overwhelmingly confirmed by recent experience.
I guess I can understand some people not wanting to believe that evidence. But they don’t help their case by pretending that there is no evidence, and certainly not by pretending that people like me, Brad DeLong, Martin Wolf, Larry Summers etc. etc. are ignoramuses who unconditionally favor fiscal expansion under all conditions, as opposed to as a specific remedy under special conditions that happen to apply right now."

 http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2013/03/crude-sachsism.html
"Crude Sachsism
Jeff Sachs:

Professor Krugman and Crude Keynesianism, by Jeff Sachs: I recently published a Washington Post op-ed called "Deficits do Matter" that was co-authored with talk-show host, commentator and former Congressman Joe Scarborough. The piece argues that high and rising levels of public debt are a real concern. It also makes the case that the stimulus packages that began in 2009 --which have consisted mainly of temporary tax cuts and transfer payments -- have significantly raised the public debt while doing very little to solve the nation's long-term employment and growth problems.

Let's stop there. As many people have pointed out, the basic premise that Krugman thinks deficits don't matter is just wrong (see some of his earlier writing when we weren't in a liquidity trap as well, he is very clear on this point). Here's Krugman:

Right now, deficits don’t matter — a point borne out by all the evidence. But there’s a school of thought — the modern monetary theory people — who say that deficits never matter, as long as you have your own currency. I wish I could agree with that view — and it’s not a fight I especially want, since the clear and present policy danger is from the deficit peacocks of the right. But for the record, it’s just not right.

Back to Sachs:

... I have argued against short-term stimulus packages. Krugman has supported them, and indeed argued that they should have been even larger. I have been against temporary tax cuts and temporary spending programs, believing that instead we need a consistent, planned, decade-long boost in public investments in people, technology, and infrastructure. Such a sustained rise in public investment should have been paid for by ending the Bush-era tax cuts in 2010, or by adopting a comparable boost in revenues. Instead Obama and Congress have now made almost all of those tax cuts permanent, putting us into a deeper fiscal bind.

On Twitter, he goes a bit further:

@madarts13 @ktguru @joenbc @kdrum I don't.I think short-run stimulus has little effect on GDP. I want long-term growth strategy instead.
— Jeffrey D. Sachs (@JeffDSachs) March 9, 2013

He can think whatever he wants, but the evidence says otherwise. In a severe recession government spending multipliers are much larger than in normal times. That's why this statement is so puzzling:

...First off, here is what I mean when I say that Krugman is a crude Keynesian... There are four elements of crude Keynesianism and, indeed, of Krugman's position:

(1) The belief that multipliers on tax cuts and transfers are stable, predictable and large; (2) The belief that America's employment and growth problems are overwhelmingly cyclical, not structural, and therefore remediable by short-term aggregate demand management; (3) The belief that a growing debt burden is a minor nuisance as long as the economy is in recession; (4) The belief that for practical purposes, the most urgent need is to raise aggregate demand rather than to focus on the quality and type of public spending.

I believe that all of these positions are misguided.

Again, he can believe whatever he wants, but the evidence is against him. On (1), as already noted, Krugman has NOT said that multipliers are "stable, predictable, and large." He is saying what both the theorists and empiricists looking at this are saying, that multipliers are larger in a liquidity trap. It's a result that comes directly out of modern DSGE models. Second, asserting that our problems are mostly cyclical is fine, but go to the SF Fed who has done a lot of work on this, talk to Narayana Kocherlakota at the Minnesota Fed sho was persuaded to change his mind on this -- go to paper after paper and they all say the same thing, there is a very large cyclical component to our problem. I know he wants to use this argument to push his favorite green policies, etc., but it needs to be grounded in theory and the empirical evidence. On (3), where's the evidence that financial markets are worried? It's not there. And (4) -- the charge that Keynesians/Krugman don't worry about the quality of spending -- is again wrong.
More specifics from Sachs on these arguments:

First, Krugman believes that fiscal multipliers are predictable and large. Thus, a $1 rise in government spending of any kind, according to Krugman, predictably leads to something like $1.50 in higher GDP. Similarly, a $1 cut in payroll taxes leads to something like a $1.30 rise in GDP.

Don't miss the work "might":

The belief in stable, predictable, and large multipliers is belied by both theory and evidence. Households and local governments might simply use a temporary tax cut or temporary transfer, for example, to pay down debts rather than to increase spending, especially because the tax cut or transfer is seen to be temporary. Businesses, concerned about the buildup of public debt, might hold back on business investment in the face of large deficits, anticipating higher taxes in the future.

The original stimulus legislation was overwhelmingly of the form of temporary tax cuts and temporary transfer payments, the kind of deficit spending especially likely to have little effect on aggregate demand. Only $88 billion of the $787 billion stimulus-package was in direct purchases of goods and services by the federal government. The rest was temporary transfers and tax cuts.

(This was not an accident. A critical and predictable weakness of the 2009 stimulus is that House Democrats and the White House negotiated it in just a few weeks. In the unnecessary haste, there was no serious consideration given to long-term needs in infrastructure, for example. With presidential leadership we could -- and should -- have forged a decade-long strategy. ...

He got what he could from Republicans, and it had to include tax cuts (nearly 40 percent). I wasn't happy either, but it is a lot more complicated than just simply asserting "poor leadership." But the weird thing is the assertion about no infrastructure spending. Let me turn it over to Ryan Cooper:

Jeff Sachs ... [has] one of the most bizarre pieces of economic analysis I’ve seen, arguing among other things that 1) the stimulus was too focused on short-term stuff like tax cuts which 2) aren’t effective stimulus anyway (huh?) and 3) should have had much more long-term investment. Listen to him complain...

Nutty aggregate demand issues aside, this is simply ignoring the plain facts. The stimulus did have money for renewable energy ($90 billion in fact), upgrading our rail network, and highway maintenance. A book has been written about this very topic, large sections of which is devoted to lamenting the fact that lazy, irresponsible pundits and reporters then and now keep complaining that the stimulus didn’t have things it in fact had.

Peggy Noonan got hammered for complaining Obama hadn’t done infrastructure spending he had in fact done, but no one was surprised because it’s Peggy Noonan and she’s basically your crazy aunt. But Jeff Sachs is supposed to be a professional economist. ... I would have thought he could at least bother to read a summary of such a huge bill before holding forth. ...

Back to Sachs:

... Krugman argues that the stimulus worked just as advertised, with the multipliers that were predicted, but that other factors held up recovery. ... My own view is that the predicted multipliers were too high in the first place, especially for such a poorly designed tax-and-transfer program, and that recovery is impeded by structural factors. These structural components are not susceptible to a Keynesian diagnosis or to a Keynesian remedy. They require a long-term public investment response that has not been forthcoming.

Again, he talks about my view rather than the actual evidence on these points. Sure, you can find estimates of multipliers that support his position, but the majority of the evidence is on Krugman's side. Also, Krugman said the package wasn't large enough (and could have been constructed better), so there's no real disagreement on that point, this is just another way for Sachs to claim multipliers are small contrary to much of the evidence.

Second, Krugman seriously and repeatedly downplays these structural changes occurring in the U.S. economy. He repeatedly emphasizes that we suffer a demand shortfall, pure and simple, one easily remedied by more stimulus. Yet it's increasingly hard to reconcile many features of the U.S. economy with this view. ...

What are some of the structural problems? These include large-scale offshoring of jobs, large-scale automation of jobs, decline in demand for low-skilled workers, skill mismatches, broken infrastructure, and rising global energy and food prices. These require various kinds of targeted public investment spending, not simply aggregate demand.

This is silly, most of those factors were already present prior to the recession. The recession added a large cyclical component on top of whatever pre-existing structural issues were in place.
To summarize so far, despite considerable evidence to the contrary, Sachs position is that short-run multipliers are small, and even if they aren't there's little cyclical unemployment. So we need to do the things I was pushing prior to the recession instead.
Anyway, trudging on:

In view of these challenges, would a different kind of spending program have worked better? If the spending had been concentrated on long-term infrastructure and job skills, with investments carried out not for two years but over the course of a full decade (as in the 1950s-60s national highway program), the answer is probably yes. But such projects were not "shovel ready."

Such long-term investment programs are very different from quick-and-dirty Keynesian "stimulus" packages such as temporary tax cuts. Long-term investment programs require thinking and planning of the kind that has never happened with Obama's stimulus packages. ...

The Administration should indeed have taken several months in 2009 to design and advocate for long-term investment programs for renewable energy, fast intercity rail, large-scale highway upgrading, large-scale skill and job training, and so forth, rather than rushing to pass a stimulus package of hundreds of billions of dollars of shortsighted and largely ineffective temporary tax cuts and transfer programs. The budget should have paid for such new long-term investments by allowing the temporary Bush-era tax cuts to expire on schedule in 2010 (or by negotiating equivalent revenues of 2-3 percent of GDP per year as the price for maintaining the Bush-era tax cuts).

Again, this is mainly a disagreement about short-run multipliers. Take your time, no need to hurry (other than the millions of people who are unemployed and struggling to make ends meet). Krugman and others (like me) say that yes, of course, shovel-ready infrastructure is the first choice, and of course we need to make progress on our long-run issues. But while we are getting that done, why the hell wouldn't we want to do whatever it takes to alleviate the suffering in the shorter-run?
Back to Sachs:

One of the Obama arguments at the time was that the rush in the stimulus program was needed to avoid a Great Depression. This was and is highly doubtful (though, yes, it is widely accepted). The US economic emergency in late 2008 and early 2009 wasn't really an aggregate demand crisis but a financial crisis. The chaotic failure of Lehman Brothers had led to an intense panic and credit squeeze. The Fed therefore needed to flood the markets with liquidity, which it rightly did, in order to unwind the panic. The Fed's action was the real difference with 1933 (when the Fed allowed the banks to fail). It was the Fed, not the fiscal stimulus, which prevented a fall into depression.

But, again, so what if it wasn't the key to avoiding another "Great Depression" (though he seriously underplays the role of automatic stabilizers in helping along these lines), if we can end suffering -- help the unemployed -- we should do so.
Now the deficit hawkery:

Third, crude Keynesians like Krugman believe that we don't have to worry about the rising public debt for many years to come, perhaps well into the next decade. This is remarkably shortsighted. The public debt has already soared, from around 41 percent of GDP when Obama came into office to around 76 percent of GDP today (and with no lasting benefit to show for it). If Krugman had his way, and deficits were not restrained, the debt-GDP ratio would already be above 80 percent by now and would be rising rapidly towards 90 percent and above (as shown in the recent CBO alternative scenario).

No lasting benefit? Is he serious? The automatic stabilizers alone had a huge benefit, and the discretionary policy helped as well (despite his insistence in every possible way that short-run multipliers are near zero).
Not sure I can go on, but here's more (reacting to my first read, and don't plan to proof what I've written as usual for typos, etc. as I don't feel like reading this again):

... It's true that we've not paid heavily so far for this rising debt burden because interest rates are historically low. Yet interest rates are likely to return to normal levels later this decade, and if and when that happens, debt service would then rise steeply, increasing by around 2 percent of GDP compared with 2012. Many people seem to believe that we can worry about rising interest rates when that happens, not now, but that is unsound advice. The build-up of debt will leave the budget and the economy highly vulnerable to the rise in interest rates when it occurs. The debt will be in place, and it will be too late to do much about it then.

Yes, because of problems that might happen "later this decade" we should let people suffer now (and besides, it's all structural and multipliers are zero).
Let's move to his fourth point:

Fourth, crude Keynesians believe that for all intents and purposes, "spending is spending." ...

No he doesn't. Not at all. Again, this is just an argument that short-run multipliers are zero, blah, blah, blah. Krugman has made it clear that quality of spending matters, but if we can't get infrastructure spending in place in time we should help people in other ways. Sorry if that interferes with Sach's pet issues.
Moving along:

This approach is disastrous both politically and economically. Progressives like myself believe strongly in the potential role of public investments to address society's needs... Spending is not spending. The U.S. needs productive public investments, not wasteful spending. ...

Yes. it's very wasteful to help the unemployed through non-infrastructure spending. Wonder how he feels about food stamps? Are those okay?
Let's go to Sachs' conclusion:

... Mr. Krugman, I believe that you are a crude Keynesian at a time when we need subtler, surer, longer-term policies.

That subtler set of policies should include:

(1) Decade-long public investment programs in renewable energy, upgraded public infrastructure, fast rail, job training and the like; (2) Adequate fiscal revenues (including tolls on infrastructure) to pay for these investments over the course of a decade, including a downward path of the debt-GDP ratio; (3) Increased revenues through taxation on high net worth, financial transactions, high incomes, capital gains and carried interest, offshore corporate earnings, and carbon emissions, and a stiff crackdown on tax havens and phony transfer pricing.

All of this would have been much easier if Obama had started down this long-term path in 2009, and had never conceded the permanence of the Bush-era tax cuts for almost all households. Instead, he followed a populist and shortsighted policy of "stimulus" and tax cuts. ...

We all agree on the need to address the long-run issues, and I have called for infrastructure spending again, and again, and again as a way to help the economy is both the short and longer runs. But that doesn't mean we should ignore other policies -- money spent on things other than infrastructure -- that might help people in the short-run. Short-run multipliers are sufficiently large, there is substantial cyclical unemployment, and out debt problems are not immediate. I hope Jeff Sachs does manage to get his favorite projects in place -- I support them -- but not at the expense of people who have already spend far too long struggling to get by as they look for work"

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/11/opinion/krugman-dwindling-deficit-disorder.html?hp

"For three years and more, policy debate in Washington has been dominated by warnings about the dangers of budget deficits. A few lonely economists have tried from the beginning to point out that this fixation is all wrong, that deficit spending is actually appropriate in a depressed economy. But even though the deficit scolds have been wrong about everything so far — where are the soaring interest rates we were promised? — protests that we are having the wrong conversation have consistently fallen on deaf ears. What’s really remarkable at this point, however, is the persistence of the deficit fixation in the face of rapidly changing facts. People still talk as if the deficit were exploding, as if the United States budget were on an unsustainable path; in fact, the deficit is falling more rapidly than it has for generations, it is already down to sustainable levels, and it is too small given the state of the economy.

Start with the raw numbers. America’s budget deficit soared after the 2008 financial crisis and the recession that went with it, as revenue plunged and spending on unemployment benefits and other safety-net programs rose. And this rise in the deficit was a good thing! Federal spending helped sustain the economy at a time when the private sector was in panicked retreat; arguably, the stabilizing role of a large government was the main reason the Great Recession didn’t turn into a full replay of the Great Depression.

But after peaking in 2009 at $1.4 trillion, the deficit began coming down. The Congressional Budget Office expects the deficit for fiscal 2013 (which began in October and is almost half over) to be $845 billion. That may still sound like a big number, but given the state of the economy it really isn’t.

Bear in mind that the budget doesn’t have to be balanced to put us on a fiscally sustainable path; all we need is a deficit small enough that debt grows more slowly than the economy. To take the classic example, America never did pay off the debt from World War II — in fact, our debt doubled in the 30 years that followed the war. But debt as a percentage of G.D.P. fell by three-quarters over the same period.

Right now, a sustainable deficit would be around $460 billion. The actual deficit is bigger than that. But according to new estimates by the budget office, half of our current deficit reflects the effects of a still-depressed economy. The “cyclically adjusted” deficit — what the deficit would be if we were near full employment — is only about $423 billion, which puts it in the sustainable range; next year the budget office expects that number to fall to just $172 billion. And that’s why budget office projections show the nation’s debt position more or less stable over the next decade.

So we do not, repeat do not, face any kind of deficit crisis either now or for years to come.

There are, of course, longer-term fiscal issues: rising health costs and an aging population will put the budget under growing pressure over the course of the 2020s. But I have yet to see any coherent explanation of why these longer-run concerns should determine budget policy right now. And as I said, given the needs of the economy, the deficit is currently too small.

Put it this way: Smart fiscal policy involves having the government spend when the private sector won’t, supporting the economy when it is weak and reducing debt only when it is strong. Yet the cyclically adjusted deficit as a share of G.D.P. is currently about what it was in 2006, at the height of the housing boom — and it is headed down.

Yes, we’ll want to reduce deficits once the economy recovers, and there are gratifying signs that a solid recovery is finally under way. But unemployment, especially long-term unemployment, is still unacceptably high. “The boom, not the slump, is the time for austerity,” John Maynard Keynes declared many years ago. He was right — all you have to do is look at Europe to see the disastrous effects of austerity on weak economies. And this is still nothing like a boom.

Now, I’m aware that the facts about our dwindling deficit are unwelcome in many quarters. Fiscal fearmongering is a major industry inside the Beltway, especially among those looking for excuses to do what they really want, namely dismantle Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. People whose careers are heavily invested in the deficit-scold industry don’t want to let evidence undermine their scare tactics; as the deficit dwindles, we’re sure to encounter a blizzard of bogus numbers purporting to show that we’re still in some kind of fiscal crisis.

But we aren’t. The deficit is indeed dwindling, and the case for making the deficit a central policy concern, which was never very strong given low borrowing costs and high unemployment, has now completely vanished."

19

Business Day

Clothing Companies Trying to Find More Direct Paths to Customers

By IAN MOUNT | Mar 7, 2013

Many new apparel brands have decided to forgo the traditional wholesale route of selling through multibrand boutiques and department stores, but it is not for everyone.

Shopping and Retail; E-Commerce; Fashion and Apparel; Advertising and Marketing; Small Business;

Let us discuss business model. 
The time I spend selling is time I am not creating.

20

Opinion

The Civil War's War on Fraud

By MARK GREENBAUM | Mar 7, 2013

The Confederacy wasn’t the only enemy of the Union Army. Rampant fraud was a threat, too.

Civil War (US) (1861-65); Defense Contracts; Frauds and Swindling; Government Procurement; Law and Legislation; United States Politics and Government; 

Despite mutters from the right it is not the government that is defrauded.
it is the individual citizen.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

@14:30

19

Opinion

Shareholders in Europe Demand Control

Mar 8, 2013

Swiss measures are the newest and most far-reaching of the say-on-pay policies now in place or under consideration in many European nations.

Executive Compensation; Shareholder Rights and Activism; Banking and Financial Institutions; Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010); Pensions and Retirement Plans; Editorials;

Good luck to the Swiss.  I think they will need it.

20

Technology

At an Annual Tech Show, It’s Hardware’s Turn in the Spotlight

By JENNA WORTHAM | Mar 8, 2013

Thanks to 3-D printers and online sources of financing, the South by Southwest conference features an unusual number of new devices this year.

South by Southwest Music and Media Conference; Social Networking (Internet); Mobile Applications; New Models, Design and Products; 3-D Printers; Crowdfunding (Internet); Start-ups;

I do not think like Jenna Wortham.  Nothing listed here has much appeal.
 

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@16:30

19

World

In Public Eye, Shining Star of Myanmar Loses Luster

By THOMAS FULLER | Mar 10, 2013

For Myanmar’s opposition leader in Parliament, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate, the transition from dissident to politician has not been easy.

Defense and Military Forces; Legislatures and Parliaments; Political Prisoners;

According to Samuel Clemons saints must be three generations dead.
They are also supposed to perform miracles on demand.
 

20

U.S.

George Shultz Presses Congress to Act on Climate Change

By ASHLEY SOUTHALL | Mar 8, 2013

Mr. Shultz, who was the secretary of state, labor and the Treasury, urged lawmakers to support the development of hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking, and alternative energy.

Alternative and Renewable Energy; Energy and Power; Hydraulic Fracturing;

Republicans are not all irrational insanity however is prevalent.

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@17:14

18

Magazine

How Economics Can Help You Lose Weight

By ADAM DAVIDSON | Mar 10, 2013

Your personal austerity program.

Weight; Diet and Nutrition;

Yes.
 

19

N.Y. / Region

Closing Arguments Made, Jurors at Cannibal Trial Get Case

By BENJAMIN WEISER | Mar 8, 2013

The central question posed by both sides was whether the sadistic acts that Officer Gilberto Valle had fantasized about involved real crimes.

Cannibalism; Freedom of Speech and Expression;

Progress.  No verdict.
 

20

Opinion

A Dangerous ‘New Normal’ in College Debt

By CHARLES M. BLOW | Mar 9, 2013

Many students can’t earn their way out of this trap.

Credit and Debt; Student Loans; Colleges and Universities; Tuition;

The one percent have no interest in becoming the twenty percent.

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20

U.S.

Using Billboards to Stake Claim Over ‘Jihad’

By STEVEN YACCINO and POH SI TENG | Mar 7, 2013

Two advocacy groups in Chicago are running dueling ads over the meaning of jihad: one campaign is focused on a nonviolent interpretation of the word, the other on its association with terrorism.

Political Advertising; Muslims and Islam; Muslim-Americans; Terrorism;

I really don't care which group claims Mien Kamph.

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@21:43

18

Business Day

The Price of Marriage in China

By BROOK LARMER | Mar 10, 2013

China’s economic surge — and vast wealth inequality — have bred a new type of matchmaker, referred to as a love hunter.

Marriages; Single Persons; Dating and Courtship; Economic Conditions and Trends; High Net Worth Individuals;

"we know what you are, my dear, we are negotiating price."

19
 

N.Y. / Region

Bronx Offers Case Study Over Future of Voting Act

By WINNIE HU | Mar 8, 2013

As the Supreme Court reviews a section of the landmark Voting Rights Act, arguments for and against election monitoring are again being batted about in New York.

Voting Rights Act (1965); Discrimination; Voter Registration and Requirements; Elections;

YES.
 

20

World

Threats Sow Concerns Over Korean Armistice

By RICK GLADSTONE | Mar 10, 2013

North Koreans have said many times over the years that they were disregarding the armistice ending the Korean War. What is unclear this time is whether they mean it.

Korean War; International Relations; Nuclear Tests; Defense and Military Forces; United States International Relations;

We have diplomats for this. 
If they meant it we would have permission to shoot them.
Find out what they want and what they will give.  We may be able to deal.

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@0:15

18

Your Money

For Parents-to-Be, a Few Financial and Legal Tips

By TARA SIEGEL BERNARD | Mar 9, 2013

Having a baby is a wonderfully happy time and also a stressful one, so it pays to get your financial house in order for the sake of you, your partner and your new child.

Personal Finances; Parenting; Pregnancy and Childbirth; Tax Credits, Deductions and Exemptions; 

Without direct two way contact I have nothing but hope.

19

Business Day

C.F.T.C.'s General Counsel to Depart

By BEN PROTESS | Mar 8, 2013

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced on Friday that its general counsel, Dan M. Berkovitz, would soon depart the agency. His departure follows the agency’s recent legal crackdown on Wall Street.

Derivatives (Financial Instruments); Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010); Futures and Options Trading; United States Politics and Government; 

A long career.

 

20

U.S.

Too Young to Retire, but These Deals Can’t Wait

By HOWARD GOODMAN and MICHAEL WINERIP | Mar 10, 2013

Baby boomers are finding themselves drawn to condominiums at 55-and-older retirement communities where prices have plunged since the recession.

Baby Boomers; Retirement Communities and Assisted Living; Condominiums; Real Estate and Housing (Residential); 

I would like there to be space for gardens.

I want my work space.

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@0:47

20

Business Day

Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS | Mar 8, 2013

Initial claims for state jobless aid fell 7,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 340,000, the Labor Department reported.

Labor and Jobs; United States Economy; Unemployment; Unemployment Insurance; 

The retired do not claim.

Freudian psychology may be an attempt to deny the process of addiction. 

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