1
The Upshot
One Way to Fix the Corporate Tax: Repeal It
An economist says companies’ moves abroad offer another reminder that it’s time to rethink the entire tax system — and to base it on consumption.Draghi at Deflation Gulch
Full
disclosure: I know Mario Draghi, a bit, since we overlapped in grad
school, and I both like and admire him; he did a fantastic job of
containing the euro crisis of 2012. And I like to imagine that he knows
and understands more than he can say in his position. Still, I don’t
think I’m projecting too much in reading his Jackson Hole speech
as the words of a man who knows perfectly well how dire the situation
is, and is sailing as close to the wind as he can, but is all too aware
of how inadequate that’s likely to be.
Although he gives a nod to structural factors, he effectively declared that people in Europe are exaggerating the problem:
Research by the European Commission suggests that estimates of the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU) in the current situation are likely to overstate the magnitude of unemployment linked to structural factors, notably in the countries most severely hit by the crisis
and he basically says that the problem with the euro is inadequate demand:
The most recent GDP data confirm that the recovery in the euro area remains uniformly weak, with subdued wage growth even in non-stressed countries suggesting lacklustre demand. In these circumstances, it seems likely that uncertainty over the strength of the recovery is weighing on business investment and slowing the rate at which workers are being rehired.
So he’s effectively saying the same thing as Janet Yellen: if unemployment is structural, where are the wage gains?
Also, the confidence
fairy has vanished from official ECB rhetoric. So has the ECB’s
trigger-happiness when it comes to any hint of inflation:
The risks of “doing too little” – i.e. that cyclical unemployment becomes structural – outweigh those of “doing too much” – that is, excessive upward wage and price pressures.
The trouble is, what
can he do about it? He appeals for a consideration of euro-wide measures
of fiscal stance, which is basically urging Germany to run bigger
deficits, but the Germans aren’t interested. He says that the ECB will
do more, but doesn’t promise massive QE, probably because he knows he
can’t.
The point is that even
if Draghi is, as I believe he is, a good man and a good economist who
gets the situation, the combination of the euro’s structure and the
intransigence of the austerians means that the situation remains very
grim."
2
Video: Devoted to Rural America
Patrick Gottsch, founder of the rural cable channel RFD-TV, is taking up the fight against big media mergers.World
Latvia’s Tensions With Russians at Home Persist in Shadow of Ukraine
A persistent rift between Latvians and ethnic Russians who live there as residents, but not as citizens, continues to be divisive in a year of conflict between Russia and Ukraine.N.Y. / Region
The Invisible Ink That Wasn’t: A Player Pleads Guilty to Marking Cards at a Casino
Bruce Koloshi of Summit, N.J., pleaded guilty to cheating at gambling in Connecticut, where he had marked cards at the Mohegan Sun casino.U.S.
Bid to Expand Medical Marijuana Business Faces Federal Hurdles
If the federal government agrees, the door could open to interstate sales by medical cannabis growers across the country.
If They Survive in Ebola Ward, They Work on
At the government hospital in Kenema, Sierra Leone, the deputy nurse matron is one of perhaps three women on the original Ebola nursing staff who have neither gotten sick nor fled.
Opinion
Large Dams Just Aren’t Worth the Cost
Sure, they look powerful, but as development projects they have failed mightily.Opinion
Congress and Iraq
Bruce Fein, a former Justice Department official, responds to a news article.Business Day
Fed Chief Sees Not Enough Data to Raise Rates
At her first keynote speech for the Federal Reserve’s annual conference, Janet Yellen says she wants to see more evidence of a labor market recovery.
I’m by no
means the only person, or even pundit, who sometimes (often) feels that
centrists are the craziest people in our political life. Liberals these
days rarely stake out really extreme positions (more on that in a
minute); conservatives may denounce Obama as a Muslim atheist communist,
but at least they know what they want. The really strange people are
those who insist that there is symmetry between left and right, that
both are equally far out and equally at fault for polarization, and make
up all kinds of strange stories to justify this claim.
Barack Obama is, of
course, the biggest target of these delusions; it’s really amazing to
see pundits accuse him of being chiefly to blame for Republican
scorched-earth opposition — you see, he should have used his mystic
powers of persuasion to bring them into the tent. But liberal
commentators also get hit — usually via gross misrepresentations of what
we said. And of course I get this most of all.
Today Jonathan Bernstein leads me to Andrew Gelman, who catches an assertion that I’m all wrong about the difference in conspiracy theorizing between left and right.
What I said was that
conspiracy theories are supported by a lot of influential people on the
right, but not on the left. They misrepresent this as a claim that most
conspiracy theorists are on the right, and point to evidence that
“motivated reasoning” is equally common on left and right as proof that
I’m wrong.
This is doubly wrong.
For one thing — Gelman doesn’t say this as clearly as I’d like —
motivated reasoning isn’t the same thing as conspiracy theorizing.
Believing that official inflation numbers understate true inflation,
based not on understanding the data but on political leanings, is
motivated reasoning. Believing that the BLS is deliberately understating inflation and unemployment as a political favor to the White House is a conspiracy theory.
And there’s a big
difference even when it comes to conspiracy theorizing between having
something believed by some, maybe even a lot, of people and having it
stated by influential politicians and other members of the elite.
So how did my claim
about elites and conspiracy theories — which I think is very defensible,
even obvious — turn into a supposed claim that isn’t defensible, and
can be dismissed as foolish? Well, you know the answer: centrists want
to believe that liberals are just as bad as conservatives, so they see
shrill partisanship even when it’s not really there.
Draghi at Deflation Gulch
Full
disclosure: I know Mario Draghi, a bit, since we overlapped in grad
school, and I both like and admire him; he did a fantastic job of
containing the euro crisis of 2012. And I like to imagine that he knows
and understands more than he can say in his position. Still, I don’t
think I’m projecting too much in reading his Jackson Hole speech
as the words of a man who knows perfectly well how dire the situation
is, and is sailing as close to the wind as he can, but is all too aware
of how inadequate that’s likely to be.
Although he gives a nod to structural factors, he effectively declared that people in Europe are exaggerating the problem:
Research by the European Commission suggests that estimates of the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU) in the current situation are likely to overstate the magnitude of unemployment linked to structural factors, notably in the countries most severely hit by the crisis
and he basically says that the problem with the euro is inadequate demand:
The most recent GDP data confirm that the recovery in the euro area remains uniformly weak, with subdued wage growth even in non-stressed countries suggesting lacklustre demand. In these circumstances, it seems likely that uncertainty over the strength of the recovery is weighing on business investment and slowing the rate at which workers are being rehired.
So he’s effectively saying the same thing as Janet Yellen: if unemployment is structural, where are the wage gains?
Also, the confidence
fairy has vanished from official ECB rhetoric. So has the ECB’s
trigger-happiness when it comes to any hint of inflation:
The risks of “doing too little” – i.e. that cyclical unemployment becomes structural – outweigh those of “doing too much” – that is, excessive upward wage and price pressures.
The trouble is, what
can he do about it? He appeals for a consideration of euro-wide measures
of fiscal stance, which is basically urging Germany to run bigger
deficits, but the Germans aren’t interested. He says that the ECB will
do more, but doesn’t promise massive QE, probably because he knows he
can’t.
The point is that even
if Draghi is, as I believe he is, a good man and a good economist who
gets the situation, the combination of the euro’s structure and the
intransigence of the austerians means that the situation remains very
grim."
U.S.
Washington: Landslides Follow Fires
Rain unleashed landslides on land left bare by wildfires, washing down hillsides, damaging homes and closing highways as the threat of more storms loomed Friday.U.S.
U.S. Officials and Experts at Odds on Threat Posed by ISIS
With the rapid advance of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the rhetoric the Obama administration is using to describe the danger the group poses to the United States has escalated.| Chuck Hagel | |
|---|---|
 |
|
| Hagel in February 2013 | |
| 24th United States Secretary of Defense | |
| Incumbent | |
| Assumed office February 27, 2013 |
|
| President | Barack Obama |
| Deputy | Ashton Carter Robert O. Work |
| Preceded by | Leon Panetta |
| United States Senator from Nebraska |
|
| In office January 3, 1997 – January 3, 2009 |
|
| Preceded by | James Exon |
| Succeeded by | Mike Johanns |
| Personal details | |
| Born | Charles Timothy Hagel October 4, 1946 North Platte, Nebraska, U.S. |
| Political party | Republican |
| Spouse(s) | Patricia Lloyd (1979–1982) Lilibet Ziller (1985–present) |
| Children | 2 |
| Alma mater | Brown College University of Nebraska at Omaha |
| Religion | Episcopalian[1] |
| Military service | |
| Allegiance |  United States of America |
| Service/branch |  United States Army |
| Years of service | 1967–1968 |
| Rank |  Sergeant |
| Unit | 2nd Battalion, 47th Infantry Regiment 9th Infantry Division[2] |
| Battles/wars | Vietnam War (WIA) |
| Awards | Purple Heart (2) Army Commendation Medal Vietnamese Gallantry Cross Combat Infantryman Badge |
Sports
A Question of Safety, Not Just for Professionals
The International Automobile Federation has started Action for Road Safety, a global campaign to help F.I.A. members educate and advocate for safer roads, vehicles and behavior.Opinion
Why We Love Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
They are far from the first mutant characters to captivate audiences, and they can tell us a lot about the kinds of stories we care about.Health
Food and the Dying Patient
The medicalization of food deprives the dying of some of the last remnants of the human experience: taste, smell, touch and connection to loved ones.U.S.
Florida Judge Deals a Blow to Democrats on Districting
After the Republican-led Legislature’s map was ruled unconstitutional last month, a slightly modified version is approved, but the 2014 election will proceed under the old map.
Opinion
In the Battle Over Abortion, Ireland Struggles to Define Human Rights
Ireland again reckons with its reproductive rights policies after an 18-year-old immigrant is impregnated via rape and denied an abortion on constitutional grounds.Opinion
How the Carolinas Fixed Their Blurred Lines
Interstate border fights can get ugly. Two states found a better way.
World
Many Migrants Feared Dead After Boat Sinks Off Libya
As many as 200 people were aboard the boat that went down about a half-mile off the coast.U.S.
A Waste Solution May Lean Again on a Low-Income Area
Many of Houston’s waste facilities are in predominantly minority neighborhoods, and critics of a city proposal for sorting waste say it could land on a familiar spot.
U.S.
Problems Plague Washington State’s Ferry System
Officials are wondering if recent problems are a sign of how deeply the state has cut into a transportation system that is a major economic driver and lifeline for many communities.Sports
A Question of Safety, Not Just for Professionals
The International Automobile Federation has started Action for Road Safety, a global campaign to help F.I.A. members educate and advocate for safer roads, vehicles and behavior.World
Elite Mexican Police Corps Targets Persistent Violence, but Many Are Skeptical
President Enrique Peña Nieto announced the new unit, aiming to stamp out violent crime and reassure business interests, but his was not the first such effort.
World
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