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anniedoc4328
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Does IMF Stand for Impressive Macroeconomic Flexibility?
So the IMF is holding a meeting on rethinking macroeconomic policy (I was invited but couldn’t make the timing work.) And the Fund’s chief economist has already made it clear that he’s open to some serious revision of the prevailing paradigm.There is no news until the markets and banks open tomorrow.The futures market opines up. They may open that way. I doubt it will last until lunch. This one is from leftist democrats:http://firedoglake.com/2011/11/13/oligarchy-is-the-politics-of-wealth-defense-by-the-richest/There is a PDF link:"This is exactly what you would expect from a nation governed by an oligarchy fused with a democracy, as described in this important paper by Jeffrey Winters, Oligarchy in the United States? (.pdf, kindly provided by Professor Winters), and fleshed out in his book Oligarchy."http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/devastating-analysis-of-mers.htmlOur nations realestate disaster from the outside.http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/downside-risks.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29Realestate from the inside." The California State controller recently reported:State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California's cash balance, receipts and disbursements in October, showing revenues came in $810.5 million below projections from the recently passed state budget.
From the side bar:
"October's poor revenues capped a very disappointing first four months of the fiscal year," said Chiang. "Unless revenues and expenditures begin to track with projections, the State will face increasing cash pressure in the months ahead.""
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2011/11/greece_italy_an.html
"According to ECB data, Greek government debt was already 120% of GDP in 2008. The primary budget deficit was over 10% of GDP in 2009 and almost 5% in 2010. That plus the rapidly increasing interest rate facing Greece pushed their debt to 156% of GDP for 2010.
Greek general government debt as a percentage of GDP. Source: ECB.
And from there it's hard to tell a story with a happy ending. Even if the Greeks defaulted 100% on the outstanding debt, moving the primary budget back to balance requires significant contractionary moves. And default (or large "haircuts") on the debt means huge capital losses for Greek banks and pensions. That kind of financial disruption can eliminate the extension of most credit and initiate a brutal economic contraction."
That is in place
". At a visit to UCSD a few weeks ago, University of Maryland Professor Carmen Reinhart was asked whether that's a correct inference to draw from a low government borrowing cost. Emphatically not, she said: "Yes, yields are low-- until they're not." Historically, the changes can come pretty quickly, as the Italians discovered last week.
Yield on Italy government 10-year bonds. Source: Bloomberg.
Italy has responded with a series of reforms described by the New York Times:
The legislation includes selling $21 billion of state assets and increasing the retirement age to 67 from 65 by 2026. It also sets the stage for a liberalization of closed professions and labor laws, a gradual reduction in government ownership of local services and tax breaks for companies that hire young workers.
Good ideas, which succeeded in bringing the Italian 10-year yield down 60 basis points by week end."
"So, at this point the really scary fallout from the situation in Europe is perceived to be under control.
Until it isn't.Posted by James Hamilton at November 13, 2011 07:29 AM"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/euro-dead
Speculation about speculation.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/13/the-correct-pronunciation-of-ec-is-eek/
"The Correct Pronunciation Of EC Is Eek
I’ve managed to go a whole day without thinking about the euro, but tomorrow’s FT is online and I couldn’t help myself.
So Munchau says that the Germans believe that the installation of Mario Monti will solve everything. The president of the Bundesbank has ruled out any lender of last resort actions by the ECB. And Gavyn Davies does the math on Italian stabilization; it’s not pretty unless rates come way down, and restoring cost-competitiveness looks impossible without a higher inflation target for the eurozone, a point I keep trying to make.
Maybe the markets will continue a relief rally for a little while. But as far as I can see, Eurodämmerung is still very much on track."
The U.S. Markets will dip as the news goes home.
They will spike hard as the currency controls go on. That will be the time to sell equities.
I expect a fall and no real bottom at that point.
The time to buy will be when inflation spikes past 4%. That will mean people are earning again.
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ttor
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The Underlying Tragedy
On Oct. 17, 1989, a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 struck the Bay Area in Northern California. Sixty-three people were killed. This week, a major earthquake, also measuring a magnitude of 7.0, struck near Port-au-Prince, Haiti. The Red C..."The late political scientist Samuel P. Huntington used to acknowledge that cultural change is hard, but cultures do change after major traumas. This earthquake is certainly a trauma. The only question is whether the outside world continues with the same old, same old."
The world has continued with "the same old, same old"Some work has been found for Haitians.There are glimmers of hope there.In so far as the disaster has been an opportunity to steal it has moved from an event to a condition.The population will shrink. (known as a crash)David Brooks is spouting talking points.Haiti is going to have to fix Haiti. That will not happen easily.
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Ashley & Travis
If you want to publish a "How We Met" I will not object.
Those who are interested know.
Most of those who do not know have no need to know.-
Liz O'Sullivan
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Gordon Brown Says Newspaper Hired ‘Known Criminals’
“Gordon Brown Says Newspaper Hired ‘Known Criminals’ - http://nyti.ms/obU3q1”I see no sin in that.Rupert Murdoch will be finally destroyed by his acts, not those of others. Secrets are secret because they are not published.Circumstantial evidence is enough for a story in a disreputable tabloid. The evidence must be public.
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Jon Oden
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Gordon Brown Says Newspaper Hired ‘Known Criminals’
“Gordon Brown Says Newspaper Hired ‘Known Criminals’ - http://nyti.ms/obU3q1”http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/rupert_murdoch/index.html?inline=nyt-per"Murdoch in America
In recent years, Mr. Murdoch has become more of a political force than ever in the United States. Fox News has added viewers and influence since the election of President Obama, becoming an enthusiastic promoter of the Tea Party Movement and other conservative candidates.
Mr. Murdoch’s News Corporation played a larger and more directly partisan role in the 2010 elections than it is known to have played in any previous American campaign. The company gave $1 million to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which largely worked to elect Republicans, and its News America division gave $1 million to the Republican Governors Association.
The disclosure of the donations drew swift condemnation from Democrats and liberal groups, which cited it as more evidence that Mr. Murdoch was pursuing a political agenda. Mr. Murdoch’s more prominent involvement in American politics comes at a time when campaign finance rules have effectively been loosened in ways that require less disclosure of donations.
News Corporation officials stated that its donations are entirely separate from its news operations and are instead related to its broader corporate interests.
But the News Corporation’s donations to the U.S. Chamber and the Republican Governors Association were different for their heft and the nature of the groups, which can accept unlimited, unregulated donations to pursue hardball political campaigns."
"Murdoch’s Influence in Britain
Since he began building his media empire, Mr. Murdoch has been a figure of towering political importance, credited by many British politicians with the power to make and unmake governments as well as influence government policies that affect the fortunes of his newspaper and television interests.
Mr. Murdoch has used his clout to try to curb the powers of media regulatory bodies and expand his control of BSkyB. But he has also voiced strong opinions on matters of wider significance, like British politicians’ flirtation with the idea of abandoning the pound for the euro, an idea Mr. Murdoch vehemently opposed.
His decision to switch his British newspapers’ support to Mr. Cameron and the Conservatives in 2010 after backing Labour in three elections, many political analysts say, made a crucial difference in returning the Conservatives to power.
Similarly, when he dumped the Conservatives in favor of Labour in 1997, many say, he helped create the wave that kept Mr. Blair in office for the next decade.
That influence, unmatched by any other figure outside of politics, has been damaged by the phone-hacking scandal that erupted over News of the World.
The company’s decision to close News of the World will not end the scrutiny of the newspaper’s practices by the police, courts and Parliament and by a public panel of inquiry that Mr. Cameron has promised to appoint.
Together, these investigations seem likely to make for an inquisition that could run for years, causing further erosion in the credibility of the Murdoch brand and costing News International millions of dollars in potential legal settlements."
James Murdoch Faces Skeptical British Lawmakers
Rupert Murdoch’s son returns to Parliament on Thursday to defend himself against evidence that he knew that hacking was not limited to a single rogue reporter.November 10, 2011James Murdoch in Test of Wills With Former Allies
James Murdoch is firmly locked in a high-stakes battle of wills with the former editor and former legal manager of The News of the World, who say his testimony has been “calculated” and “disingenuous.”November 11, 2011MORE ON JAMES R. MURDOCH AND: WIRETAPPING AND OTHER EAVESDROPPING DEVICES AND METHODS, NEWS AND NEWS MEDIA, LONDON (ENGLAND), NEWS OF THE WORLD, MYLER, COLIN, CRONE, TOMJames Murdoch."Over the past few years at its New York headquarters, the News Corporation has slowly purged executives, including Peter Chernin, the former president, and Gary Ginsberg, the top communications adviser, who were close to Rupert Murdoch and seen as stabilizing influences on him and a counterweight to his conservative politics. James Murdoch and a handful of executives close to him have sought to fill that power vacuum, with an abrasive style that has alienated many longtime associates of Rupert Murdoch. While some have criticized James Murdoch’s ascent as a case of nepotism, he has proven himself in various company roles as a skilled operator. In his first major job, as the head of Star TV unit in 2000, James Murdoch turned the television service, which was then hemorrhaging cash, into a profitable division. Later, as the chief executive of BSkyB, he helped increase subscribers and pushed for high-definition programming.
The phone hacking scandal raised questions about whether James Murdoch would ever take the helm of his father’s $62 billion media giant. Behind the scenes, the two men’s relationship had frayed in recent years even before the hacking story broke, sometimes leaving them not even on speaking terms. The disagreements stemmed in large part from the clashing visions of a young technocratic student of modern management and a traditionalist who rules by instinct and conviction."
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