Gaza should be treated as the nest of bandits it is.
Then what?
Europe is in the hands of a protection racket.
"Millions for defense. Not one red cent for tribute." Is a proper slogan for the circumstance. Buy generous insurance and refuse to pay.
The mobsters are not going to occupy sovereign nations.
They will squeeze all they can out of cowardly governments.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/15/oh-we-see-disaster/
"9 Comments
Oh, We See Disaster
I
got my first heads-up of the extent to which austerity fever had taken
over the minds of Very Serious People when the OECD, which is
conventional wisdom central, went all in for austerity now now now.
The report making that case, the 2010 OECD Economic Outlook, made economic projections out through the last quarter of 2011. For a project I’m working on, I have compared those projections with what actually happened to selected countries; here’s what it looks like:
The harsh-austerity countries did much worse than the OECD was expecting.
This is similar to the IMF’s exercise, which convinced its staff that fiscal multipliers are not just positive — contractionary policy is contractionary — but bigger than they thought. So the OECD was terribly, terribly wrong and gave awful advice. I wonder if they have learned anything from the experience."
The report making that case, the 2010 OECD Economic Outlook, made economic projections out through the last quarter of 2011. For a project I’m working on, I have compared those projections with what actually happened to selected countries; here’s what it looks like:
This is similar to the IMF’s exercise, which convinced its staff that fiscal multipliers are not just positive — contractionary policy is contractionary — but bigger than they thought. So the OECD was terribly, terribly wrong and gave awful advice. I wonder if they have learned anything from the experience."
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/11/modern-money-public-purpose-yanis-varoufakis-and-marshall-auerback-on-the-eurozone-crisis.html
"Thursday, November 15, 2012
Modern Money & Public Purpose: Yanis Varoufakis and Marshall Auerback on the Eurozone Crisis
This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 559 donors have
already invested in our efforts to shed light on the dark and seamy
corners of finance. Join us and participate via our Tip Jar or WePay in the right column or read about why we’re doing this fundraiser and other ways to donate, such as by check, on our kickoff post or one discussing our current target.
One of the reasons the public knows little about economics is that most economists are lousy speakers. Part of that is their reliance on jargon, which is often shamanistic, designed to obscure rather than communicate. But the other reason is that a lot of economists don’t bother to try to be engaging.
The remarks by Yanis Varoufakis and Marshall Auerback are informative and lively, if ultimately pretty grim. The comments at YouTube are extremely positive. The video includes a Q&A section, so don’t be put off by the 2 hours taping time. The talk proper is a bit more than an hour.
One of the reasons the public knows little about economics is that most economists are lousy speakers. Part of that is their reliance on jargon, which is often shamanistic, designed to obscure rather than communicate. But the other reason is that a lot of economists don’t bother to try to be engaging.
The remarks by Yanis Varoufakis and Marshall Auerback are informative and lively, if ultimately pretty grim. The comments at YouTube are extremely positive. The video includes a Q&A section, so don’t be put off by the 2 hours taping time. The talk proper is a bit more than an hour.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpIsZL5FJVs&feature=player_embedded
1930s medicine pushes Europe back into double-dip recession
15 Nov 2012
| 91 Comments
Beijing and Berlin must pay
15 Nov 2012
| 89 Comments
Eurozone in double-dip recession: as it happened
15 Nov 2012
| 575 Comments
Anti-austerity marches turn violent across southern Europe
Demonstrations turned violent in Spain and Portugal after millions took part in a mostly peaceful general strike on Wednesday in organised labour's biggest Europe-wide challenge to austerity policies since the debt crisis began three years ago.
15 Nov 2012
| 5 Comments
Moody's to review UK's AAA rating in 2013
Moody's will revisit the UK's AAA rating in early 2013, the credit rating agency said on Wednesday night, warning about the weak economy and the eurozone's debt crisis.
15 Nov 2012
| 57 Comments
Debt crisis: anti-austerity strikes hit Europe - as it happened
Clashes break out in Spain and Italy as angry workers stage a Europe-wide string of rallies and strikes against austerity cuts and tax rises, shutting transport, grounding flights and closing schools.
14 Nov 2012
| 963 Comments
Britain waits for boldness, Mr Osborne
Telegraph View: the Chancellor must begin radical supply-side reforms to rescue the UK economy
14 Nov 2012
| 68 Comments
Europeans vent their anger as cuts bite
The violent protests and strikes that flared up across the European Union on Wednesday are a sign of things to come as frustration grows over austerity measures and Europe’s recession peaks.
14 Nov 2012
| 41 Comments
-
15 Nov 2012: German mayors at co-operation event with Greek counterparts target of municipal workers incensed by overstaffing comments
-
15 Nov 2012: Eurozone GDP fell by 0.1% in third quarter, plunging region into recession that economists fear could drag into next year 153 comments
-
15 Nov 2012: Amy Goodman: As Obama opens the debate on the US's fiscal cliff, Europe is brought to a standstill by protests at cuts to the social safety net
45 comments -
Picture, 15 Nov 2012: Photographs from the Guardian Eyewitness series
-
15 Nov 2012: City experts have warned that the crisis in Southern Europe is creeping north after the eurozone fell back into recession. Euro area GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2012, as austerity and the weakening global economy hit demand
-
15 Nov 2012: Some Brussels officials may take a glass-half-full view of new figures, but there is good reason to be gloomy
-
Interactive, 15 Nov 2012: The eurozone is officially back in recession, the latest official data from Eurostat shows
Endangered Currency
First Greece -- then Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal: The European common currency has come under pressure from large national debts and the effects of the global financial crisis, ultimately requiring a rescue package close to a trillion euros.
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2012/11/weekly-unemployment-claims-dont-panic.html
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Weekly unemployment claims: don't panic, it's Hurricane Sandy
- by New Deal democrat
Initial unemployment claims jumped about 80,000 last week to 439,000. This is almost certainly an outlier due to Hurricane Sandy, which disrupted both the NYC and Philadelphia metro areas with a combined population of about 30 million people, or almost 10% of the entire country's population.
The exact same thing happened after Hurricane Katrina, which struck at the end of August in 2005. Here's the graph of initial claims starting with January 1, 2004:
See that spike of about 120,000 late in 2005? Those are the first two full weeks in September, right after Katrina. After that claims returned to their more typical readings.
This spike of 80,000 isn't quite so bad. If after a couple of weeks it hasn't returned below 380,000, then I'd be concerned. This week's increase isn't worth worrying about.
Germany's Weakening Economy
While most of Europe has been hit by the slowdown, Germany for the most
part appears to have weathered the storm pretty well. Until the last
month, that is. Recent statistics indicate the European stalwart is
being bit by a slowdown.
The manufacturing PMI issued by Markit has been in contraction for most of 2020. And while this number rebounded a bit over the year, the recent readings have been lower. New orders are down, and new export orders dropped sharply. Backorder work also decreased, indicating manufacturers may start running out of things to do, leading to layoffs.
And now, the services sector is following the manufacturing sector into contraction territory. While the overall reading has only registered a negative number over the last three months, new orders have been dropping for 7. Like the manufacturing sector, employers are focusing on their backlog of orders, which has fallen in each month since March.
Finally, consider falling industrial production:
The seasonally adjusted 1.8 per cent month-on-month fall in industrial production was worse than expected and followed other data published by the German economy ministry on Tuesday that showed factory orders fell 3.3 per cent in September.
Here are the charts from the German Statistics Bureau:
Overall production has been stable for the last year, but we haven't seen a strong advance. On the good side, there hasn't been a strong decrease, either, which considering the overall EU situation is pretty good.
The overall new orders number is also not encouraging.
The manufacturing PMI issued by Markit has been in contraction for most of 2020. And while this number rebounded a bit over the year, the recent readings have been lower. New orders are down, and new export orders dropped sharply. Backorder work also decreased, indicating manufacturers may start running out of things to do, leading to layoffs.
And now, the services sector is following the manufacturing sector into contraction territory. While the overall reading has only registered a negative number over the last three months, new orders have been dropping for 7. Like the manufacturing sector, employers are focusing on their backlog of orders, which has fallen in each month since March.
Finally, consider falling industrial production:
The seasonally adjusted 1.8 per cent month-on-month fall in industrial production was worse than expected and followed other data published by the German economy ministry on Tuesday that showed factory orders fell 3.3 per cent in September.
Here are the charts from the German Statistics Bureau:
Overall production has been stable for the last year, but we haven't seen a strong advance. On the good side, there hasn't been a strong decrease, either, which considering the overall EU situation is pretty good.
The overall new orders number is also not encouraging.
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Japan averts its 'fiscal cliff'
Japan's lawmakers pass a crucial bill that will allow the
government to pay for a large chunk of its expenses, averting a
potential fiscal cliff.
Bernanke: Banks hurting housing
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the overly
stringent lending requirements of banks are hurting the US housing
recovery.
Qatar backs Xstrata-Glencore deal
The planned merger of commodities trader Glencore and mining
group Xstrata moves a step closer after Xstrata's second-largest
shareholder said it would back the deal.
15 November 2012
Last updated at 19:19 ET
Treasury 'must spend on building'
The government should boost the UK economy by committing £1.5bn to backing major construction projects, says the CBI.
Eurozone slides into recession
The eurozone returns to recession for the first time in three
years as the bloc's economy contracts by 0.1% between July and
September.
UK retail sales fall in October
UK retail sales fall by more than expected in October as shoppers cut back on food and clothing purchases, official data shows.AOL spam:
If you need another yes I can give you one. YES, always.
I have never needed a blue pill in the past. I have no current experience.
I would really make my own pictures. Video usually disappoints. Text is much more vivid.
Television can be your choice.
There are real books if other things fail to hold my attention.
Text can download in the unused bandwidth.
I will not work in sales if I can help it. I get abrasive when irritated.
My choice is to do the work on the house rather than pay an incompetent.
Debt has no attraction for me. My income is irregular at best.
The best way to weight control is through hunger.
I make furniture. Appliances should fit and work.
I am willing to shop for them.
I am cautious and far from nimble when investing. I take advice and try to think. I still get it wrong often. It is not the time to buy as yet.
I have done all the selling I want to do just now.
I signed up with pay-pal long ago. I have not used them for several years.
We can certainly talk. I try not to speak to spam.
I use restaurants very rarely. They earn their money.
I am not in the market for life insurance as yet.
I do not send spam. I have no interest in "customer contact".
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/16/opinion/life-death-and-deficits.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
"America’s political landscape is infested with many zombie ideas —
beliefs about policy that have been repeatedly refuted with evidence and
analysis but refuse to die. The most prominent zombie is the insistence
that low taxes on rich people are the key to prosperity. But there are
others. And right now the most dangerous zombie is probably the claim that
rising life expectancy justifies a rise in both the Social Security
retirement age and the age of eligibility for Medicare. Even some
Democrats — including, according to reports, the president — have seemed
susceptible to this argument. But it’s a cruel, foolish idea — cruel in
the case of Social Security, foolish in the case of Medicare — and we
shouldn’t let it eat our brains.
First of all, you need to understand that while life expectancy at birth
has gone up a lot, that’s not relevant to this issue; what matters is
life expectancy for those at or near retirement age. When, to take one
example, Alan Simpson — the co-chairman of President Obama’s deficit
commission — declared that Social Security was “never intended as a
retirement program” because life expectancy when it was founded was only
63, he was displaying his ignorance. Even in 1940, Americans who made
it to age 65 generally had many years left.
Now, life expectancy at age 65 has risen, too. But the rise has been
very uneven since the 1970s, with only the relatively affluent and
well-educated seeing large gains. Bear in mind, too, that the full
retirement age has already gone up to 66 and is scheduled to rise to 67
under current law.
This means that any further rise in the retirement age would be a harsh
blow to Americans in the bottom half of the income distribution, who
aren’t living much longer, and who, in many cases, have jobs requiring
physical effort that’s difficult even for healthy seniors. And these are
precisely the people who depend most on Social Security.
So any rise in the Social Security retirement age would, as I said, be
cruel, hurting the most vulnerable Americans. And this cruelty would be
gratuitous: While the United States does have a long-run budget problem,
Social Security is not a major factor in that problem.
Medicare, on the other hand, is a big budget problem. But raising the
eligibility age, which means forcing seniors to seek private insurance,
is no way to deal with that problem.
It’s true that thanks to Obamacare, seniors should actually be able to
get insurance even without Medicare. (Although, what happens if a number
of states block the expansion of Medicaid that’s a crucial piece of the
program?) But let’s be clear: Government insurance via Medicare is
better and more cost-effective than private insurance.
You might ask why, in that case, health reform didn’t just extend
Medicare to everyone, as opposed to setting up a system that continues
to rely on private insurers. The answer, of course, is political
realism. Given the power of the insurance industry, the Obama
administration had to keep that industry in the loop. But the fact that
Medicare for all may have been politically out of reach is no reason to
push millions of Americans out of a good system into a worse one.
What would happen if we raised the Medicare eligibility age? The federal
government would save only a small amount of money, because younger
seniors are relatively healthy and hence low-cost. Meanwhile, however,
those seniors would face sharply higher out-of-pocket costs. How could
this trade-off be considered good policy?
The bottom line is that raising the age of eligibility for either Social
Security benefits or Medicare would be destructive, making Americans’
lives worse without contributing in any significant way to deficit
reduction. Democrats, in particular, who even consider either
alternative need to ask themselves what on earth they think they’re
doing.
But what, ask the deficit scolds, do people like me propose doing about
rising spending? The answer is to do what every other advanced country
does, and make a serious effort to rein in health care costs. Give
Medicare the ability to bargain over drug prices. Let the Independent
Payment Advisory Board, created as part of Obamacare to help Medicare
control costs, do its job instead of crying “death panels.” (And isn’t
it odd that the same people who demagogue attempts to help Medicare save
money are eager to throw millions of people out of the program
altogether?) We know that we have a health care system with skewed
incentives and bloated costs, so why don’t we try to fix it?
What we know for sure is that there is no good case for denying older
Americans access to the programs they count on. This should be a red
line in any budget negotiations, and we can only hope that Mr. Obama
doesn’t betray his supporters by crossing it."
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