Friday, June 28, 2019

@10:00, 6/28/19

Blame Steve Bannon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bannon

@6:25, , 6/28/19

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1

The Gerrymandering Ruling and the Risk of a Monopoly on Power

Nate Cohn at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
The Supreme Court’s decision may be a small step, but together with other trends, could put a strain on democracy.
 
Yes.
 

Debate Night 2: The ‘On Politics’ Breakdown

Lisa Lerer at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Last night, former Vice President Joe Biden had a moment. And it wasn’t pretty.
 
Read it.
 
The Republicans favorite Democrat.  
 

Full Transcript: Democratic Presidential Debates, Night 2

NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Read the full transcript from Night Two of the Democratic primary debate.
 
I do not want to waste my attention.
 

Biden Comes Under Attack From All Sides in Democratic Debate

Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Senator Kamala Harris confronted the former vice president in a searing moment over racial equality, and others attacked him on policy and generational divide.
 
The Republicans favorite Democrat. 
 

Kamala Harris Makes the Case That Joe Biden Should Pass That Torch to Her

Matt Flegenheimer and Alexander Burns at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
With one exchange about race, the senator began to take aim at Joe Biden’s tenuous hold on his front-runner status in the Democratic presidential field.
 
Argument is her specialty.
Biden is not a winner.
 

Even Half a World Away, Trump Weighs In on Debates

Peter Baker and Michael Crowley at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Spoiler alert: The president was not impressed with the Democratic candidates vying to run against him in 2020. “They definitely have plenty of candidates, that’s about it,” he said.
 
Trump is known to lie.
 

Kamala Harris on Seeking to ‘Prosecute the Case’ Against Trump

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Ms. Harris, the former California attorney general, reset her campaign and trained her focus on the president.
 
The house will not impeach while conviction is impossiblr.
 

John Hickenlooper Used to Be Michael Bennet’s Boss

Julie Turkewitz at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The two Colorado politicians’ decisions to run for president added an element of sibling-style rivalry to the race.
 
Pointless.
 

Transcript: Kamala Harris and Joe Biden Clash on Race and Busing

Isabella Grullón Paz at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Ms. Harris sharply criticized Mr. Biden over his stance on busing and his recent comments on segregationist senators. Here is a transcript of the exchange.
 
Senator Kamala Harris  wins.
 
10 

Eric Swalwell on Gun Control

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Mr. Swalwell has sought to stand out in the crowded Democratic field by making addressing gun violence his top priority.
 
There must be an end to the second amendment unconditional right to arms. 
 
11 

Kirsten Gillibrand’s ‘Family Bill of Rights’ Seeks to Level the Playing Field

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
One of Ms. Gillibrand’s signature proposals calls for investing heavily in maternal and child health.
 
"Crooked Hillary"
 
sorry is not enough. 
 
12 

Joe Biden on Abortion and the Hyde Amendment

Maggie Astor at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Abortion is one example of a larger problem for Mr. Biden: his inability to escape parts of a nearly 50-year record.
 
The Republicans favorite Democrat.
 
13 

Kirsten Gillibrand on Abortion

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Ms. Gillibrand’s strong defense of women’s reproductive rights at a time when they have come under attack has helped her campaign gain steam.
 
"Crooked Hillary"
 
sorry is not enough.
 
14 

Joe Biden on Crime and Mass Incarceration

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
During the ’80s and ’90s, Mr. Biden helped shepherd a string of bills that transformed the criminal justice system — and, experts say, hurt America’s black communities.
 
I was distracted.
 
15 

Reparations Are Part of Marianne Williamson’s Plan to Heal America

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Ms. Williamson, a self-help author and presidential candidate, wants to pay $200 billion to $500 billion in reparations for slavery.
 
The moment passed in 1867.
 
16 

Pete Buttigieg and the South Bend Police

Reid Epstein at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
From the dawn of his mayoralty, Mr. Buttigieg has wrestled with the sort of complicated issues of race and criminal justice that afflict communities nationwide.
 
A solution would win the presidency.
There is no sign of that solution.
 
17 

6 Takeaways From Night 2 of the Democratic Debate

Sydney Ember, Shane Goldmacher, Katie Glueck and Reid J. Epstein at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Kamala Harris stood out from the 10-person crowd several times during the NBC debate. Her exchange with Joe Biden, who is leading in the polls, put him on the defensive.
 
Also ran.
 
18 

Fact-Checking Night 2 of the 2020 Democratic Debates

The New York Times at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
New York Times reporters followed the exchanges and provided context around the candidates’ claims.
 
Also ran.
Biden is the Republicans favorite Democrat.
 
19 

Michael Bennet and the Immigration Compromise That Failed

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Mr. Bennet, a senator from Colorado, may be best known for helping negotiate a comprehensive immigration proposal in 2013.
 
Legislation murdered by Republicans.
 
20 

Five Takeaways From the Border Aid Vote

Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
The vote on Thursday exposed a number of realities about the House majority and its relationship with the Senate.
 
Cash for PR,  farmers, and shelters.   The price is high. 
 
 

@21:00, , 6/26/19



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1




Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago
Thursday: • At 8:30 AM: The *initial weekly unemployment claims* report will be released. The consensus is for 218 thousand initial claims, up from 216 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM: *Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019* (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.1% annualized in Q1, unchanged from the second estimate of 3.1%. • At 10:00 AM: *Pending Home Sales Index* for May. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index. • At 11:00 AM: the *Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey* for June. This is the last of regional manufacturing surveys for June.
No numbers.

Matching Donations Finished

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 1 hour ago
The $1,000 in matching donations has now been met. The fundraiser will continue till Friday midnight, and any donations will be more than appreciated, but they won’t be matched. A sincere thank you to the matching donor, and to everyone who has donated. The 16 reviews and the booklet on how to think will be […]
https://www.ianwelsh.net/the-problem-with-public-expertise/
People often tell stories.
Facts are optional.

U.S. Economic Conference Shows Few Signs of Enticing Palestinians

David M. Halbfinger at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
A White House conference aimed at showing the Palestinians the economic benefits of the future Trump peace plan was shunned by most Palestinians.
The fighting in the Levant is about moral legitimacy.
Trump is using the wrong tool.

With Rare Comity, Senate Panel Advances Bills to Lower Health Costs

Abby Goodnough at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
The Senate health committee approved a suite of bills to address rising health costs — including surprise medical bills and prescription drug prices — and raise the legal smoking age.
This is a story told by a Republican.
The Congress does what it can.
Coral Davenport at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
By signing a clean-car deal with California, Canada inserted itself into the high-profile battle over Mr. Trump’s weakening of rules to fight climate change.
Mr. Trump is not a diplomat. 

The Problem With Public Expertise

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 3 hours ago
One of the talking points against the internet and social media is that it has led to the death of expertise. The issue with this is that, when you move away from the hard sciences and engineering, which still leaves vast swathes of public policy, the experts aren’t much, if any, better than laypeople. The […]
A story is just a story.
Editors are thought to be concerned with truth. 

Senate Approves $4.6 Billion for Border With Fewer Restrictions

Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The Republican-controlled Senate rejected a House border bill that reined in Trump immigration policies, then passed its own version with few strings attached.
No bill will become law.
Blame Trump and his Republicans.

Steve Bullock, Locked Out of the Debate, Sees a Path Forward in the 2020 Race

Reid J. Epstein at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Mr. Bullock, the governor of Montana, is trying to make the most of his failure to qualify, holding televised events on both days of the debate.
The Democratic Campaign Committee is not mistaken.

Here Are the Lineups for the First 2020 Democratic Debates

Matt Stevens and Shane Goldmacher at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Elizabeth Warren will be in the center on Wednesday night, next to Beto O’Rourke. Does positioning matter? Decide for yourself.
Noise.
10 

Reddit Restricts Pro-Trump Forum Because of Threats

Niraj Chokshi and Neil Vigdor at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The subreddit The_Donald was “quarantined” after users posted threats of violence against police officers and politicians in Oregon, administrators said.
Politics is serious business.
11 

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Same YoY Price Gains in May as in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 4 hours ago
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: April Case-Shiller Results and May Forecast: Getting Back to Normal The housing market has continued to normalize throughout the spring, finding more balance between buyers and sellers and slowing to a pace of growth much more in line with historic norms. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 3.5% in... more» 
  I hope to build.

13

Supreme Court Strikes Down Tennessee Liquor Law

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The law barred newcomers to the state from operating liquor stores. The justices based their decision on the 21st Amendment, which ended Prohibition.
The Supreme Court is showing unfortunate signs of rationality.
The insanity is intentional.
14 

Why the Democratic Takeover in New Jersey Is More Civil War Than Progressive Revolution

Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
A chasm between Gov. Philip D. Murphy and more moderate legislators could lead to a government shutdown.
The Democratic party is another coalition in search of power.
It is better than the Other though far from perfect.
15 

Supreme Court Limits Agency Power, a Goal of the Right

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Conservatives, who have long complained that federal agencies are treated too deferentially by the courts, said the majority did not go far enough.
Give lawyers a few days to digest the decisions.
Precident continues to rule.
16 

Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in June

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production. From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Is Flat In June The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), *was flat (0.0 percent change) in June on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis*, following three monthly gains. *On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.3 percent* (3MMA). ... “The slowing economy and rising trade tensions have weighed on business confidence and investment, resulting in mixed manuf... more » 
The Trump administration is in trouble.
17 

‘Talk Is Meaningless’: Readers Tell Us What They Want From the Debates

Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Should the Democratic hopefuls focus on differentiating themselves from one another or stir the imagination on who’s best to go against President Trump in the general election?
The "debate" is half over.
Democrats should not debate with Democrats.
There can be no winner.
18 

Trump’s Inauguration: The Money Behind the Most Expensive Presidential Debut in U.S. History

NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Watch our new TV show from The New York Times on FX and Hulu.
No.
19 

Trump Attacks Mueller, Repeating False Accusations

Eileen Sullivan at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Mr. Trump repeated false accusations that the special counsel had destroyed text messages by F.B.I. officials critical of the president.
No surprise. 
20 

Trump Criticizes Megan Rapinoe Over Refusal to Visit White House

Andrew Das and Victor Mather at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
The American soccer star had used an obscenity to dismiss the idea of a White House visit if her team won the Women’s World Cup.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_like_thee,_Doctor_Fell
*********************************************************************************


1

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Same YoY Price Gains in May as in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 minute ago

I will try to build.

2

Supreme Court Strikes Down Tennessee Liquor Law

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago

The interstate commerce clause controls.

3

Why the Democratic Takeover in New Jersey Is More Civil War Than Progressive Revolution

Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
A chasm between Gov. Philip D. Murphy and more moderate legislators could lead to a government shutdown.
Democrats are a coalition 

Supreme Court Limits Agency Power, a Goal of the Right

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago

Read with more care.
This Court usually does nothing.

5

Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in June

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 2 hours ago
The economy is in trouble.

6

‘Talk Is Meaningless’: Readers Tell Us What They Want From the Debates

Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago

Winners are not available yet.

7

Trump’s Inauguration: The Money Behind the Most Expensive Presidential Debut in U.S. History

NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Watch our new TV show from The New York Times on FX and Hulu.
My mind is not for sale. 
8

Trump Lashes Out After Mueller Agrees to Testify to Congress 

Eileen Sullivan at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Typical Trump.
9

Trump Criticizes Megan Rapinoe Over Refusal to Visit White House

Andrew Das and Victor Mather at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago

She is correct.

10

Bill Wehrum, an Architect of Trump Administration’s Pro-Coal Rules, to Leave E.P.A.

Lisa Friedman at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago

Some things stink more than others.

11

House Panel Subpoenas Kellyanne Conway on Ethics Law Violations

Catie Edmondson at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago

Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.

12

‘My Plan B Is Maybe My Plan A’: Trump Threatens New Tariffs on China

Ana Swanson at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago

There is no cure for stupid.

13

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 5 hours ago
   
 Crash time. 

14

hat Block New Housing
Emily Badger at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Progressives and conservatives share common goals on this issue, but the details may be harder to agree on.
The rules are not the problem.   Try economics.
15

​First Democratic Debate: When Is It and What to Watch For

Shane Goldmacher and Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Everything you need to know about Wednesday’s presidential primary debate on NBC.
Let reporters tell you what they heard.
16 

How 21 Democrats Answered Our Questions Before the Debates

Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Which candidates believe the next president can stop climate change? How do they see the future of health care, handguns, the Supreme Court and other issues? Here's a quick look at their answers.
No change.
17

Where in N.Y.C. to Watch the Democratic Debates

Azi Paybarah at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Wednesday: Two nights of debates means two nights of watch parties across the city.

18

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 9 hours ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 21, 2019. ... The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week. *The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier*. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was *9 percent higher than the same week one year ago* . ... “Markets last we... more » 

19

How 21 Democrats Answered Our Questions Before the Debates

Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Which candidates believe the next president can stop climate change? How do they see the future of health care, handguns, the Supreme Court and other issues? Here's a quick look at their answers.

20 

It’s Not So Much the Debate. It’s the Days After the Debate.

Lynn Vavreck at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Dramatic moments aren’t as important as the story lines that become set in the aftermath.
||

Thursday, June 27, 2019

@19;51, , 6/27/19

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1

Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago
Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, *Personal Income and Outlays, May 2019*. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. • At 9:45 AM, *Chicago Purchasing Managers Index* for June. • At 10:00 AM, *University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index* (Final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 97.9.
 
Bad sample.
 

Debating Tonight: Michael Bennet on Corruption in Washington

Julie Turkewitz at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Mr. Bennet, a senator from Colorado, has called for a lifetime ban on members of Congress becoming lobbyists, and other measures meant to reboot American democracy.
 
"First catch your rabbit"
 

Democratic Debate Ratings Exceed NBC’s Expectations, at 15.3 Million Viewers

Michael M. Grynbaum at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Even 16 months before Election Day, interest in the campaign is intense. Wednesday’s TV audience nearly equaled the record for a Democratic primary debate.
 
People are interested.
 

House Passes Election Security Package, With an Eye on Mitch McConnell

Nicholas Fandos at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
House Democrats are trying to push Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, to allow the consideration of election security bills in his own chamber.
 
I expect no change.
 

Debating Tonight: Marianne Williamson on Spiritual Healing

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Ms. Williamson, a self-help author running for president, hopes to end what she calls an ongoing “low-level emotional civil war.
 
Good idea in the wrong forum.
 
6  

Trump’s Latest Acting Pentagon Chief Faces Immediate Stress Test

Thomas Gibbons-Neff at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Mark T. Esper, the third person to run the Defense Department under President Trump, visited NATO. A few days ago he was still Army secretary.
 
An empty suit.
 

Debating Tonight: Andrew Yang on Universal Basic Income

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
He’s an entrepreneur and former tech executive who wants to give Americans $12,000 a year. Here’s some background.
 
Just noise.    Been there.  Done that.
 
8   

Andrew Yang on Universal Basic Income

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
He’s an entrepreneur and former tech executive who wants to give Americans $12,000 a year. Here’s some background.
 
"Democracy is a great idea.  It should be tried."
 

Julián Castro Is Crowned the Winner on Telemundo’s First Debate Night

Jennifer Medina at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The network simulcast the Democratic debate in Spanish, and had interpreters prepare for months to be able to translate “Medicare for all” in real time.
 
Puerto Rico can't vote in PR
 
10 

U.S. and China Angle for Trade Truce, but Both Insist the Other Will Back Down

Ana Swanson and Keith Bradsher at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
As President Trump prepares for a pivotal meeting with President Xi Jinping of China, both countries say they do not need to compromise to bring a bruising trade war to an end.
 
No progress.
 
11 

The Lessons of Washington State’s Watered Down ‘Public Option’

Sarah Kliff at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
A big health care experiment for Democrats shows how fiercely doctors and hospitals will fight.
 
Give them more money and no COLA.
 
12 

Manafort Pleads Not Guilty to N.Y. Charges Designed to Thwart a Trump Pardon

Sharon Otterman at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
President Trump’s former campaign chairman is serving federal prison time. He was in court on Thursday to face new fraud charges in New York.
 
Manafort is not a compleat idiot.
 
13 

Michigan Republicans Tune In to Democratic Debate. No Conversions Reported.

Trip Gabriel at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Scouting out the opposition, Republicans viewing Wednesday’s debate were impressed by Tulsi Gabbard and Elizabeth Warren and quick to defend President Trump.
 
Michigan is Gerrymandered. 
 
14 

Rex Tillerson Says He Was Cut Out of Decisions by Kushner and Bannon

Edward Wong and Sharon LaFraniere at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The former secretary of state told Congress that the top White House aides dealt with foreign leaders without his knowledge.
 
It looks Right. 
 
15 

House Passes Senate Border Bill in Striking Defeat for Pelosi

Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in a stinging defeat after a show of Democratic disunity, let a Senate border spending bill pass the House without controls that liberals had demanded.
 
Watch the amendments.
 
16 

What You Need to Know About the Census Citizenship Question

Timothy Williams at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
An attack on immigrants or a need to protect minority voters? With a deadline to print 2020 forms looming, the Supreme Court left the question undecided.
 
The question is struck down.
 
17 

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.7%

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q2 2019, unchanged from 4.7% in Q1, and unchanged from 4.7% in Q2 2018. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.1% in 2016. From chief economist Victor Calanog at Reis: *The apartment vacancy rate was flat in the quarter at 4.7%* - a zero net change from a year ago. After climbing 60 basis points from a low of 4.1% in Q3 2016, the vacancy rate has remained near 4.7% since the first quarter of 2018. The national average asking rent increased 1.2% in the second quarter while effective rent, wh... more » 
 
Rents are high.
 
18 

Supreme Court Leaves Census Question on Citizenship in Doubt

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
In a setback for the Trump administration, the court said the reason for adding the question was inadequate. Government experts said adding the question could suppress participation among immigrants.
 
No.
 
19 

Democrats Diverge on Economy and Immigration in First Debate

Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Elizabeth Warren set the tone for the party’s progressive wing, but others among the 10 candidates were more cautious, producing clashes along ideological lines.
 
The Democratic party is a coalition.
 
20 

At the First Debate, an Audio Snarl and a Traffic Jam

James Poniewozik at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The Democrats’ prime-time debut was like a big ensemble TV pilot, with a lot of characters to manage.
 
It was the wrong form.
 
||

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

@21:25

|


1

Judge Rejects Government’s Request to Halt Emoluments Suit Against Trump

Sharon LaFraniere at NYT > Politics - 13 minutes ago
The Justice Department criticized the ruling, which allows evidence gathering to begin on Friday. An appeal is likely.
 
Good.
 

What Will Democrats Look for in Debates? Someone They Can Imagine Onstage With Trump

Annie Karni at NYT > Politics - 13 minutes ago
Four years after Donald J. Trump blew up the expectations for how a candidate is expected to behave in a debate, he will loom over the 20 Democrats who take the stage in Miami this week.
 
A boxer is not required.
 

Debates Mark the Starting Line for the Media’s Race Through 2020

Michael M. Grynbaum at NYT > Politics - 13 minutes ago
Millions of Americans start paying attention once the candidates start sparring on national TV, which puts a spotlight on both cringe-worthy gaffes and successful zingers.
 
There should be nothing to debate among Democrats.
 

‘A 10-Person Debate Is a Mess’: Debate Advice for Democrats, From Republicans

Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
Ted Cruz, Chris Christie and others from the crowded, chaotic 2016 Republican race offered tips to Democrats on surviving the debate stage.
 
A debate among Democrats is a trap at this stage.
"I am less a Trump than Though" 
 

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May was 0.63%, down from 0.65% in April. Freddie's rate is down from 0.87% in May 2018. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since November 2007. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". [image: Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate]*Click on graph for larger image* I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.4% to 0.6% range - so this i... more » 
 
Panic in the suburbs   
 
6

‘A Constant Game of Musical Chairs’ Amid Another Homeland Security Shake-Up

Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Mark Morgan, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement acting director will lead Customs and Border Protection, administration officials said Tuesday.
 
Both the mothers and the #metoos are after Trump.
 

Toasting Sarah Huckabee Sanders. By the Press. Really.

Shawn McCreesh at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
“You’d better not say I was here,” said one White House reporter, who attended the awkward drinks at a nearby steakhouse.
 
Free drinks always draw reporters.
Editors will insist on the story.
 

Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman Resigns Amid Sexting Scandal

Neil Vigdor at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Val DiGiorgio was accused of sexual harassment by Irina Goldstein, who ran unsuccessfully for the Philadelphia City Council.
 
I will hear about it.   I don't vote there.
Nassau Democrats did not run a primary.
 

Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago 
CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs. A few key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. 3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the seasonal change (second graph below). 4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index. For in depth description of these issues, see ... more » 
 
Yes.  Surgery is better here. 
 
10

Netanyahu Presses Superpowers to Remove Iranian Forces from Syria

Isabel Kershner at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
At a meeting of American, Israeli and Russian national security advisers, the competing regional interests were evident.
 
It is not likely that more troops will be committed. 
 
11 

House Democrats Move to Rein In Trump’s Immigration Crackdown

Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
House Democrats pressed toward a vote on $4.5 billion in humanitarian aid to address the plight of migrants at the southern border, as leaders moved to quell a revolt.
 
Shock and rejection are growing.  
staff is not quitting yet.
 
12
 

Fed Chair Powell Weighs Whether Cut Will Be Needed as Risks Loom

Jeanna Smialek at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Mr. Powell underlined the Fed’s insulation from politics and kept the door open for interest rate cuts at a time of trade uncertainty.
 
Powell is in a no win situation.
 
13 

Trump Names Stephanie Grisham, Aide to First Lady, as Sarah Sanders’s Successor

Katie Rogers and Annie Karni at NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago
Ms. Grisham joined the Trump campaign in 2015 and is one of the last remaining aides from Mr. Trump’s campaign still serving in the White House.
 
The domestic politics will drag him into court.
 
14 

Fed Chair Emphasizes Independence as Trump Attacks Persist

Jeanna Smialek at NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell underlined the central bank’s insulation from politics and kept the door open for interest rate cuts as uncertainties loom.
 
Powell will get inflation if things are as we are told.
A weaker dollar would be a good thing for trade.
Trump would fire him if he could.
 
15 

Review: ‘The Investigation’ Makes the Mueller Report a Dark-Comic Indictment

James Poniewozik at NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago
The star-studded reading was surreal and unsubtle but somehow fitting for a political era of tragedy-as-farce.
 
16 

"A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell"

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 8 hours ago
Live video for A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook and monetary policy review The Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures—what is often referred to as our "independence." Congress chose to insulate the Fed this way because it had seen the damage that often arises when policy bends to short-term political interests. Central banks in major democracies around the world have similar independence. And on policy: Let me turn now from the longer-term issues that are the focus of the review to the nearer-term outlook for the ec... more » 
 
Yes.
 
17 

Elizabeth Warren’s Latest Plan: Expanding Voting Access

Thomas Kaplan at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Ms. Warren is calling for new national standards that would apply to federal elections across the country.
 
The Republicans cannot compete.
 
18 

Is Cory Booker Too Nice? (And Is That Bad?)

Jonathan Martin and Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
The New Jersey senator is a gifted orator with a glittering résumé, but he often pulls back from political infighting. The debates offer him a chance to break out.
 
Cory Booker is not a power in the Senate.
 
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A few Comments on May New Home Sales

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 9 hours ago
New home sales for May were reported at 626,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for April were revised up slightly, and sales for March were revised down. Earlier: New Home Sales decreased to 626,000 Annual Rate in May. [image: New Home Sales 2017 2018]*Click on graph for larger image.* This graph shows new home sales for 2018 and 2019 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in May were down 3.7% year-over-year compared to May 2018. Year-to-date (just through May), sales are up 4.0% compared to the same period in 2018. *This comparison was the mo... more » 
 
I will build.
 
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Canceling Student Loan Debt Doesn’t Make Problems Disappear

Kevin Carey at NYT > Politics - 10 hours ago
Plans from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren could have unintended consequences.
 
I have little sympathy for banks. 
Enough will survive.
The deflation may be a problem.
A bailout may be required.
 
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