@17:21, , 7/3/19

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1

Jessica Cisneros on Challenging an Incumbent Democrat: ‘There’s a Lot He Has Never Had to Justify’

Jennifer Medina at NYT > Politics - 20 minutes ago

If elected, Ms. Cisneros, a 26-year-old immigration lawyer and South Texas native, would be the youngest woman ever in Congress.

Good luck to her.

2

Goldman: June Payrolls Preview

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill: *We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 175k in June*, somewhat above consensus of +162k … *We estimate the unemployment rate rebounded a tenth to 3.7%* (vs. consensus 3.6%), mirroring the rise in continuing claims. … We estimate that average hourly earnings growth narrowly rounded up to +0.4% in June (consensus +0.3%), which would boost the year-on-year rate by one tenth to +3.2% (consensus also +3.2%). emphasis added

"Figures don't lie.  Liars certainly figure."

3

‘Leave Tanks for Red Square’: Trump’s July 4 Celebration Unsettles Military

Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Eric Schmitt and Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago

President Trump’s plan to deploy battle tanks in Washington for the July 4 celebration has prompted worries about politicization of the military.

The military has been politicized for decades.

4

Justice Dept. Watchdog to Review Shift in Plan to Move F.B.I. Headquarters

Adam Goldman at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago

Democrats have expressed concern that President Trump may have intervened to keep the land from being redeveloped into a project that would compete with his nearby hotel.

The explanation is wrong.  The action is correct.

5

A Job ‘Unlike Any Other’: Maggie Haberman on Covering President Trump

The New York Times at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago

One of our White House correspondents answers readers’ questions about her reporting, the use of anonymous sources and the value of Twitter.

"What tips and thoughts do you have for young aspiring journalists?
— Kyle J. Mullins, St. Petersburg, Fla.

On tips, get coffee with anyone who wants to meet with you. Try to be the last person still working when others have gone home. Work hard never to get beat on a story. And remember that this is an incredibly important job, and one that is unlike any other."

Though far from repaired PR is more prepared than it has been in the past.

NPR reports that emergency managers are doing good things.

6

 BEA: June Vehicles Sales decrease to 17.3 Million SAAR

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago

The BEA released their estimate of June vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated sales of 17.29 million SAAR in June 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 0.6% from the May sales rate, and up slightly from June 2018. Sales in 2019 are averaging 16.9 million (average of seasonally adjusted rate), down 1.4% compared to the same period in 2018. [image: Vehicle Sales]*Click on graph for larger image.* This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for June (red). This was above the consensus forecast for June. A small decline in sales t... more » 

Sales of automobiles are flat except for Tesla. 

7

Joe Biden Has Raised $21.5 Million, His 2020 Campaign Says

Thomas Kaplan at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago

Mr. Biden’s fund-raising haul fell short of Pete Buttigieg’s total for the second quarter of the year, though Mr. Biden did not enter the race until late April.

Joe Biden is the Republicans favorite presidential aspirant.

8

Trump Vows to Move Forward With Citizenship Question on Census

Alan Rappeport and Michael Wines at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago

The president contradicted statements by his Justice and Commerce Departments that census forms were being printed without the question and they would heed a court ruling.

Only Trump insists the question is constitutional.

9

June Employment Preview

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 165,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.6%. Last month, the BLS reported 75,000 jobs added in May. Here is a summary of recent data: • The ADP employment report showed an increase of only 102,000 private sector payroll jobs in June. This was below the consensus expectations of 150,000 private sector payroll jobs added. The ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report for any one month, but *in general, ... more » 

Guessing.

10 

Some Democrats Talk About Cosmetic Surgery Insurance. It Doesn’t Exist.

Margot Sanger-Katz at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago

‘Medicare for all’ would essentially do away with private insurance, a fact that some politicians seem reluctant to emphasize.

Insurance is about risk and risk pools.
Cosmetic surgery under medicare for all will be rationed by wait times.
If the need is instant cash must be paid.
If it will wait a year or five single payer can cover it.

Burn victims need surgery.

11 

Two Voice Recorders on Hand, Because Congress Does Talk

Nicholas Fandos at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago

Nicholas Fandos covers the Capitol, where “a lot of energy goes into being in the right place at the right time.” Some in-house resources help.

Congress people are trying to work.
They work with words.

12              

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index decreased to 55.1% in June

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 7 hours ago

The June ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 55.1%, down from 56.9% in May. The employment index decreased to 55.0%, from 58.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in June for the 113th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for ... more » 

It might be sinking.

13 

Trade Deficit increased to $55.5 Billion in May

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 8 hours ago

From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $55.5 billion in May, up $4.3 billion from $51.2 billion in April, revised. May exports were $210.6 billion, $4.2 billion more than April exports. May imports were $266.2 billion, $8.5 billion more than April imports. [image: U.S. Trade Exports Imports] *Click on graph for larger image.* Exports and imports increased in May. Exports are 27% above the pre-recession peak and down 1% compared to May 2018; imports are 15% abo... more » 

People love things.

14 

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 221,000

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 8 hours ago

The DOL reported: In the week ending June 29, *the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 221,000*, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 227,000 to 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 222,250, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 221,250 to 221,750. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. *Click on graph for larger ... more » 

Seasonal employment. 

15

ADP: Private Employment increased 102,000 in June

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 8 hours ago

From ADP: *Private sector employment increased by 102,000 jobs from May to June* according to the June ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... “Job growth started to show signs of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “While large businesses continue to do well, small businesses are struggling as they compete with the ongoing tight labor market. The goods producing sector ... more » 

Keeping up appearences.

16

Pete Buttigieg Proposes National Service Programs for Climate Change and Mental Health

John Ismay at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago

Mr. Buttigieg proposed an expansion of voluntary national service programs, aiming to attract 250,000 Americans. Student debt relief would be offered in exchange.

Tiney tools.

17

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Slightly in Latest Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 10 hours ago

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased Slightly in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 28, 2019. ... The Refinance Index decreased 1 percent from the previous week. *The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier*. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 1*0 percent higher than the same week one year ago*. ... “Pur... more » 

18

Noise. 

It’s a Question No One Says They Want to Ask. But the Women Running for President Keep Hearing It.

Lisa Lerer at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago

Female candidates are climbing in the polls and dominating debates. Yet Democrats are still being asked if a woman can be elected president.

Another reason for a primary campaign.

19

Here Are the Democrats at Risk of Not Making the July Debates

Matt Stevens and Maggie Astor at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago

Fourteen candidates are assured a place onstage. The rest are battling it out for six remaining slots. In September, things get tougher.

Keep hope alive.

20 

On Politics: Census Will Not Have Citizenship Question

NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago

The Trump administration abandoned its quest to add the question, a week after being blocked by the Supreme Court.

We will follow the constitution.