1
Outsider or Insider? How Bernie Sanders Learned to Walk the Line
Glenn Thrush at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Mr. Sanders met with scorn when he arrived on Capitol Hill in 1990. But in
the years since, he has evolved from a gadfly to a reliable team player.
I would be much more enthusiastic about Bernie if I thought he could win.
2
Melania Trump Gets a Statue Near Her Hometown, Carved by Chain Saw
Palko Karasz at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
An American artist commissioned a local amateur wood carver to create “the
first monument to Melania” in her native Slovenia. Not everyone is
impressed.
Conceptual art at its best.
The price was right.
3
Susan Collins, a Fixture in Maine, Has Twin Troubles: Trump and Kavanaugh
Sheryl Gay Stolberg at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Senator Susan Collins said she would decide this fall whether she would
seek re-election, but Maine’s Republican mainstay faces a shifting
political landscape.
Loyalty is central to Republican organization.
4
Schedule for Week of July 7, 2019
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 5 hours ago
The key report this week is June CPI.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy
Report to the Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
*----- Monday, July 8th -----*
3:00 PM: *Consumer Credit* from the Federal Reserve.
*----- Tuesday, July 9th -----*
6:00 AM ET: NFIB *Small Business Optimism Index* for June.
[image: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey] 10:00 AM ET: *Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey* for May from the BLS.
This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff,
Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue colu... more »
Ordinary people are paying for Trump's front.
5
Cory Booker’s Brand of Advocacy: Show Up. Cameras Often Follow.
Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
He has crafted a political style that emphasizes being present for the
issues he’s fighting for.
Another good person with minimal support.
6
Momentum for Harris, Big Haul for Buttigieg: This Week in the 2020 Race
Matt Stevens and Maggie Astor at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Kamala Harris gets a bump after the debates, Pete Buttigieg raises $24.8
million and Cory Booker unveils an immigration overhaul.
Small potatoes still. The primary votes are not cast or counted.
7
‘Do You Support Busing?’ Is Not the Best Question
Emily Badger at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Issues of educational inequality raised by a 1970s-era practice remain
relevant today, but language can obscure what’s really at stake.
Busing for integration is a makeshift.
Banks must be made "color blind".
It would result in a slow but stable change.
8
Open Thread and Posting
Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 11 hours ago
Spent the last week dealing with the bureaucracy and various paperwork.
Given it was the week of both Canada Day and Independence Day, this seemed
like a good time to reduce posting. Regular posting will resume this coming
week. In the meantime, feel free to use this as an open thread.
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
Ian needs to do his reading.
9
Trump Suggests Executive Order on Drug Prices, With a Scope That Is Unclear
Margot Sanger-Katz at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
He may be talking about a pilot program that would apply to only a small
subset of drugs.
People always get the numbers wrong.
There must not be a set price.
10
Restoring Forests Could Help Put a Brake on Global Warming, Study Finds
Somini Sengupta at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
Researchers looked at how many trees could be planted on every available
parcel of land on Earth, where they could go, and what impact could be on
our survival.
The emergency is immediate.
The fixes are slow.
The best that can be done is to limit the dead to billions.
There should be a crash program on preserving civilization.
11
AAR: June Rail Carloads down 5.3% YoY, Intermodal Down 7.2% YoY
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 21 hours ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. *Graphs
and excerpts reprinted with permission*.
*Total U.S. rail carloads in June 2019 were down 5.3%* (57,173 carloads)
from June 2018, as just 4 of the 20 carload commodities the AAR tracks had
carload gains. ... Last year was the best year ever for intermodal, but
this year isn’t keeping up. In June 2019, U.S. *intermodal originations
were down 7.2% from June 2018*, their fifth straight decline and the
biggest percentage decline since April 2016.
emphasis added
[image: Rail Traffic] *Click on graph for large... more »
Less stuff.
12
Two Years Into Trump’s Presidency, Obama Remains a Top Target for Criticism
Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
The president faults his predecessor on North Korea, Iran, Turkey, NATO and
the border. “I call it the ‘Obama-Biden mess,’” Mr. Trump said.
Shooting at the dead is easy. They can't shoot back.
13
The Redcoats Are in a Holding Pattern Over La Guardia
Niraj Chokshi at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
Revolutionary War airports? President Trump revised history in his Fourth
of July speech, to the internet’s amusement.
All doubt is removed.
14
Trade War May Be Slowing Business Spending and Factories, Fed Says
Jeanna Smialek at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
A report by Federal Reserve officials said that United States economic
activity increased at a “solid pace” in early 2019, but that risks still
loomed.
Observant
15
Kamala Harris Raised Close to $12 Million in 3 Months, Lagging Top Rivals
Reid J. Epstein and Thomas Kaplan at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
Ms. Harris’s total for the quarter, which went from April through June, is
far below what some other first-tier candidates reported this week.
Horse race.
16
Do Latino Voters Really Care if the 2020 Candidates Speak Spanish?
Jennifer Medina at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
They might not, according to polls, but that isn’t stopping Beto O’Rourke,
Cory Booker and others.
No.
17
Biden, in CNN Interview, Says Harris Caught Him Off Guard in Debate
Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Mr. Biden reiterated that Ms. Harris had mischaracterized his position on
school busing, prolonging what has been a combative period of the
presidential primary.
A confession of failure.
18
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
From Merrill Lynch:
A widening in the trade deficit and slower than expected inventory build in
May were mostly offset by strong vehicle sales in June. On net, the data
cut 0.1pp from 2Q GDP tracking, leaving us at *1.7% qoq saar*. [July 5
estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at *1.5% for 2019:Q2* and 1.7% for
2019:Q3. [July 5 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual
rate) in the *second quarter of 2019 is 1.3 percent* on July 3, down from
1.5 ... more »
It seems small.
19
Comments on June Employment Report
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
The headline jobs number at 224 thousand for June was above consensus
expectations of 165 thousand, however the previous two months were revised
down 11 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.
Overall this was a decent report. Note: Temporary Decennial Census hiring
for June is not available yet (something to watch).
Earlier: June Employment Report: 224,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
In June, the year-over-year employment change was 2.301 million jobs. That
is decent year-over-year growth.
*Average Hourly Earnings*
Wage growth was below expectations. F... more »
Summer jobs.
20
June Employment Report: 224,000 Jobs Added, 3.7% Unemployment Rate
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
From the BLS:
*Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 224,000 in June, and the
unemployment rate was little changed at 3.7 percent*, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional
and business services, in health care, and in transportation and
warehousing.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down
from +224,000 to +216,000, and the change for May was revised down from
+75,000 to +72,000. *With these revisions, employment gains in April and
May combined were 11,000 less than previously repo... more »
Flat.
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