@16:35
The trip is delayed.
1
Opinion
A Legal Victory for Monetary Policy in Europe
The European Central Bank should move to buy bonds to stimulate lending.
This is the week we’re supposed to hear the ECB’s plan for monetary expansion; the German media are already howling,
with Bild warning that Draghi’s expected actions will reduce the
pressure for reform in “crisis-hit countries such as Spain, Greece,
Italy, or France.” Above are European long-term interest rates as of
close of business yesterday.
So, first of all, look
at “crisis-hit” France; investors are so worried about France that they
won’t hold its bonds unless offered, um, 0.64 percent, the lowest rate
in history. But never mind — everyone knows that the French must be in
crisis, because they still believe in social insurance, and besides,
they’re French.
Notice also that
crisis-hit Spain is now paying a lower interest rate than Britain. It’s
surely a higher interest rate in real terms, because Spain faces the
prospect of years of deflation. But this should — but won’t — put an end
to all the talk about how low British rates are the reward for
austerity, and so on.
More generally, those
very low rates reflect market expectations that (a) the European economy
will remain very weak and (b) that the ECB will continue to fall far
short of its inflation target. German 5-year bonds are yielding minus
0.05 percent; index bonds of the same maturity are yielding -0.44
percent. So the market is saying both that there are very few good
investment opportunities out there — few enough that paying the German
government to protect the real value of your wealth is a good move — and
that inflation over the next five years will be around 0.4 percent, not
the target of 2 percent.
Will the QE policy
turn this around? Unless it’s shockingly larger and more aggressive than
expected, it’s hard to see how. Unconventional monetary policy works,
if it does, largely by changing expectations; but the markets know this
is coming, and are notably unimpressed.
Oh, and the markets don’t believe that the US is immune to these ills. Market expectations of inflation, as embodied in the 5-year break-even,
have fallen off a cliff — it’s a bigger decline than the one that
preceded the beginning of QE2 in 2010. Fed officials seem weirdly
complacent about this, and about the risk that we, too, could find
ourselves in a low-inflation trap.
Worrying times."
Business Day
Greece’s Tourism Industry Unsettled by Talk in Election Campaign
Hoteliers and others are worried by proposals that include a possible increase in the value-added tax and a plan to curb all-inclusive resort deals.N.Y. / Region
2 Jets Searched at J.F.K. After Report of Bomb Threat
Two Delta Air Lines jets were searched at Kennedy International Airport after a report of a bomb threat Monday, officials said.Opinion
A Perilous Year for Abortion Rights
State battles continue over aggressive limitations, and bills with bad old ideas are introduced in the new Republican-controlled Congress.
"It
remains to seen whether the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell,
will be able to muster the 60 votes needed to pass the bill in his
chamber, but he has vowed to try, notwithstanding President Obama’s past
veto threat.
Food
U.S. Research Lab Lets Livestock Suffer in Quest for Profit
In the past 50 years, meat has gotten less fatty and easier to chew — thanks in part to the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center. But the achievement has come at a steep cost to the lab’s animals.Opinion
Nativist Lawsuit on the Texas Border
Here are the things to know about a meritless and flimsy legal screed that could be ruled on as early as next month.false
How Your Facebook Likes Could Cost You a Job
Researchers say a computer model can predict your personality based on your Facebook Likes, and such predictions could one day be used in hiring, banking and more. But should they?World
Tipping the Balance of Israeli Politics Through Math
Arab-Israelis are aiming to maximize their leverage in Israeli elections.N.Y. / Region
Data Show New York Police Are Resuming Their Work
Arrests and tickets have yet to reach the same levels as in past years, but the rebound further indicates that a slowdown is over.
Opinion
A Modest Move on Methane
The first federal effort to regulate the gas directly will put a dent in harmful emissions. But only a dent.U.S.
Montana: Water Warning Is Issued After Oil Spill
Drinking water was being shipped to the eastern Montana city of Glendive on Monday after traces of a major oil spill along the Yellowstone River were detected in public water supplies.World
Palestinian Authority Gives Partial Salaries to Employees
The authority said it had taken out loans to cover a shortfall caused by Israel’s withholding tax revenue it collects on the Palestinians’ behalf.Opinion
A Detainee’s Diary
One prisoner has written a memoir of life at Guantánamo that every American should read.N.Y. / Region
Appearing Together, de Blasio and Sharpton Urge Civility
Mayor Bill de Blasio and the Rev. Al Sharpton took the stage together on Monday at an event commemorating Martin Luther King’s Birthday.World
AirAsia Jet’s Climb Before Crash Was Unusually Fast, Investigators Say
The passenger jet, which normally ascends at 1,000 to 2,000 feet per minute, was climbing at about 6,000 feet per minute, Indonesian investigators said.N.Y. / Region
Cuomo’s Education Agenda Sets Battle Lines With Teachers’ Unions
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo is expected to seek changes to teacher evaluations and charter school limits, reforms that, uncharacteristically for a Democrat, will put him in conflict with the unions.N.Y. / Region
Cuomo Proposes Train Link to La Guardia Airport
The train, which would connect with the No. 7 subway line and the Long Island Rail Road, would be the first mass transit link to the Queens airport.Automobiles
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