1
Automobiles
Hamilton Wins in Singapore and Logano in New Hampshire
Lewis Hamilton took over the points lead with his win, while Joey Logano advanced in Nascar’s Chase for the Championship.Technology
Ex-Employees Say Home Depot Left Data Vulnerable
Before a major data breach, Home Depot was slow to raise its defenses against hackers despite alarms from security experts as far back as 2008.Business Day
Draghi Pessimism on European Recovery Stirs Expectations of Stimulus
The European Central Bank president’s remarks at a news conference gave rise to speculation that quantitative easing may be in store.Draghi at Deflation Gulch
Full
disclosure: I know Mario Draghi, a bit, since we overlapped in grad
school, and I both like and admire him; he did a fantastic job of
containing the euro crisis of 2012. And I like to imagine that he knows
and understands more than he can say in his position. Still, I don’t
think I’m projecting too much in reading his Jackson Hole speech
as the words of a man who knows perfectly well how dire the situation
is, and is sailing as close to the wind as he can, but is all too aware
of how inadequate that’s likely to be.
Although he gives a nod to structural factors, he effectively declared that people in Europe are exaggerating the problem:
Research by the European Commission suggests that estimates of the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU) in the current situation are likely to overstate the magnitude of unemployment linked to structural factors, notably in the countries most severely hit by the crisis
and he basically says that the problem with the euro is inadequate demand:
The most recent GDP data confirm that the recovery in the euro area remains uniformly weak, with subdued wage growth even in non-stressed countries suggesting lacklustre demand. In these circumstances, it seems likely that uncertainty over the strength of the recovery is weighing on business investment and slowing the rate at which workers are being rehired.
So he’s effectively saying the same thing as Janet Yellen: if unemployment is structural, where are the wage gains?
Also, the confidence
fairy has vanished from official ECB rhetoric. So has the ECB’s
trigger-happiness when it comes to any hint of inflation:
The risks of “doing too little” – i.e. that cyclical unemployment becomes structural – outweigh those of “doing too much” – that is, excessive upward wage and price pressures.
The trouble is, what
can he do about it? He appeals for a consideration of euro-wide measures
of fiscal stance, which is basically urging Germany to run bigger
deficits, but the Germans aren’t interested. He says that the ECB will
do more, but doesn’t promise massive QE, probably because he knows he
can’t.
The point is that even
if Draghi is, as I believe he is, a good man and a good economist who
gets the situation, the combination of the euro’s structure and the
intransigence of the austerians means that the situation remains very
grim.
Automobiles
And Then My Car Chimed In, After It Nudged Me in the Rear
Today’s automobiles are beeping and chirping at us, raising lights like stage curtains, playing little movies on our screens and serenading us with theme melodies.World
U.N. Food Program Warns of Coming Cuts to Aid
The World Food Program says that because of reduced resources, rations for refugees from Syria and elsewhere will be reduced.
The gold standard was never a good thing.
7
No comments:
Post a Comment