1
The Big Money Challenge Awaiting Joe Biden in 2020
Mr. Biden, ahead in the polls but behind financially, is seeking out top
money bundlers, but that risks a backlash among grass-roots Democrats.
Bipartisanism does not exist in this congress.
2
Trump’s State Visit to Britain, Long Delayed, Now Has a Date
Queen Elizabeth II formally invited the American leader to a three-day
visit in June, when events for the 75th anniversary of D-Day will be held.
I regret the necessity.
3
Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in March
From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Prepayments Surge on Lower
Interest Rates; Seasonal Delinquency Rate Improvement Remains Muted
• Prepayment activity increased by 28% month-over-month, the largest
single-month increase in more than 2.5 years, in response to declining
interest rates and the start of the homebuying season
• The national delinquency rate fell by 5.3% for the month, the smallest
improvement for any March in six years in what is typically the
strongest-performing month of the year
• March 2019 ended on a Sunday, which has historically led to an increase
in ... more »
Lenders have been cautious.
4
Political Memo: Joe Biden Looms, but Bernie Sanders Is Running His Own Race
The Vermont senator has been the front-runner in early campaigning, but Mr.
Biden’s expected entry could change that. Mr. Sanders is not likely to care.
Both these candidates should be also rans.
The contest is existential.
5
Supreme Court to Hear Arguments on Census Citizenship Question
Adding the question, government experts said, could depress participation
in the census and affect how congressional seats are allocated.
I cannot predict the Supreme Court.
The citozenship question on the census should be struck.
6
On Politics: Pelosi Cautions on Impeachment
NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago
Speaker Nancy Pelosi said to colleagues that it was clear President Trump
had engaged in behavior “which does not bring honor to the office he holds.”
Investigate Trump to destruction.
8
Highlights From 5 Candidates at CNN Town Halls
Bernie Sanders backed voting rights for people now in jail, including the
Boston Marathon bomber, while Pete Buttigieg disagreed and Kamala Harris
said, “I think we should have that conversation.”
The threat of impeachmnt must be real.
Elizabeth Warren Stands out from the pack.
9
Kamala Harris Proposes Executive Orders on Gun Control
Ms. Harris pledged to implement measures that have long failed to pass in
Congress, including mandatory background checks and regulations on
manufacturers.
Effective gun control will require a constitutional amendment.
10
As McGahn Emerges as Chief Witness in the Mueller Report, Trump and Allies Ramp Up Attacks
The president’s lawyers have attacked the former White House counsel since
Robert Mueller released his report on whether the president obstructed
justice.
"The only way to be not guilty is to not have done the actions"
11
Highlights from 5 Candidates at CNN Town Halls
Elizabeth Warren stands alone.
12
Tuesday: New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher
to Start The Week
Mortgage rates were higher again on Monday, but just barely. The average
lender was still in worse shape on Tuesday or Wednesday of last week when
rates were the highest they'd been in about a month. [*30YR FIXED - 4.25%*]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM: *FHFA House Price Index* for February 2019. This was
originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
• At 10:00 AM: *New Home Sales* for March from the Census Bureau. The
consensus is for 645 thousand SAAR,... more »
no news.
13
At a White House Tradition, Politics Color Everything but the Easter Eggs
The Easter Egg Roll bore the hallmarks of holidays under President Trump,
including not just the usual festivities but also exchanges about
decapitation, impeachment and the wall.
Trump believes in the "bully pulpit".
14
Trump Speaks About Sri Lanka and Impeachment at Easter Egg Roll
NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
President Trump spoke to reporters about the Sri Lanka attacks and the
possibility of impeachment, while hundreds of children celebrated the
holiday at the White House Easter Egg Roll.
Investigate.
15
On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Who’s the Jeb of the 2020 Race?
In the On Politics newsletter: Democrats hoping to avoid Jeb Bush’s 2016
fate are finding themselves in familiar political minefields.
Red herrings are not appropriate.
16
Housing Inventory Tracking
Update: Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an
example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for
housing.
And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the
bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here.
And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending,
and that boosted price increases.
I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the
housing market.
Inventory, on a national basis, was up 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) in March,
this was t... more »
There is no hope here. Sales are also down.
17
Pelosi Urges Caution on Impeachment as Some Democrats Push to Begin
A letter and a conference call by Speaker Nancy Pelosi appeared intended to
shore up support for the investigations already begun rather than
impeachment proceedings.
Push the investigations.
Pelosi is correct.
18
Democrats Seek Young Voters, and the Memes That Move Them
Democratic 2020 hopefuls have taken note of the potential power of
millennial and Generation Z voters. But effectively reaching them is the
hard part.
"Find the crowd and get in front of it."
19
Social Security and Medicare Funds Face Insolvency, Report Finds
The social safety net programs are fraying as baby boomers age, the
trustees of Social Security and Medicare said, but a political fix seems
far away.
Trivial.
Issue bonds.
People die.
20
Global Wealth Gap Would Be Smaller Today Without Climate Change, Study Finds
Most of the world’s poor countries are poorer than they would have been had greenhouse gas emissions not altered the climate. In some rich countries, it's the opposite.Climate change is a fact.
The wealth gap is another.
We cannot change the past.
Only the future can change from the prediction.
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