1
Opinion
Eye-for-an-Eye Incivility
When the state kills, how does it not descend toward the depravity of the criminal?This is civilization.
2
U.S.
Town Meetings Can Have Prayer, Justices Decide
In a 5-4 ruling that split the Supreme Court’s liberal and conservative members, the justices said that towns may start their sessions with sectarian prayers.
3
Opinion
A Better Econo.my, Still Far From Good
April was the best month for job growth in quite a while, but recovery is still painfully slow.Three Charts on Secular Stagnation
Apologies for blog silence — stuff happened. Right now I’m in Oxford, preparing for a talk tonight on secular stagnation and all that; and I thought I’d share three charts I find helpful in thinking about where we are.
Secular stagnation is the proposition that
periods like the last five-plus years, when even zero policy interest
rates aren’t enough to restore full employment, are going to be much
more common in the future than in the past — that the liquidity trap is
becoming the new normal. Why might we think that?
One answer is simply that this episode has
gone on for a long time. Even if the Fed raises rates next year, which
is far from certain, at that point we will have spent 7 years — roughly a
quarter of the time since we entered a low-inflation era in the 1980s —
at the zero lower bound. That’s vastly more than the 5 percent or less
probability Fed economists used to consider reasonable for such events.
Beyond that, it does look as if it was
getting steadily harder to get monetary traction even before the 2008
crisis. Here’s the Fed funds rate minus core inflation, averaged over
business cycles (peak to peak; I treat the double-dip recession of the
early 80s as one cycle):
And this was true even though there was clearly unsustainable debt growth, especially during the Bush-era cycle:
The point is that even if deleveraging comes
to an end, even stabilizing household debt relative to GDP would involve
spending almost 4 percent of GDP less than during the 2001-7 business
cycle.
Finally, the growth of potential output is
very likely to be much slower in the future than in the past, if only
because of demography:
Suppose that potential growth is one
percentage point slower, and that the capital-output ratio is 3. In that
case, slowing potential growth would, other things being equal, reduce
investment demand by 3 percent of GDP.
So if you take the end of the credit boom and
the slowing of potential growth together, we have something like a 7
percent of GDP anti-stimulus relative to the 2001-7 business cycle — a
business cycle already characterized by low real rates and a close brush
with the liquidity trap.
Predictions are hard, especially about the
future — but as I see it, these charts offer very good reasons to worry
that secular stagnation is indeed quite likely."
4
Business Day
Changed Life of the Poor: Better Off, but Far Behind
Despite improved living standards, the poor have fallen further behind the middle class and the affluent in both consumption and income, and crucial services remain unattainable.Life expectancy variation over time
The following information is derived from Encyclopædia Britannica, 1961. and other sources, some with a questionable accuracy. Unless otherwise stated, it represents estimates of the life expectancies of the population as a whole. In many instances, life expectancy varied considerably according to class and gender.Life expectancy at birth takes account of infant mortality, but not pre-natal mortality.
| Era | Life Expectancy at Birth (years) |
Life Expectancy at Older Age | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Paleolithic | 33 | Based on the data from recent hunter-gatherer populations, it is estimated that at age 15, life expectancy was an additional 39 years (total age 54).[10] | ||
| Neolithic[11] | 20 | |||
| Bronze Age and Iron Age[12] | 26 | |||
| Classical Greece[13] | 28 | |||
| Classical Rome[14] | 20–30 | At age 10, life expectancy was an additional 35 to 37 years (total age 45 to 47). | ||
| Pre-Columbian North America[15] | 25–30 | |||
| Medieval Islamic Caliphate[16] | 35+ | |||
| Medieval Britain[17][18] | 30 | At age 21, life expectancy was additional 43 years (total age 64).[19] | ||
| Early Modern Britain[12] | 25–40 | |||
| Early 20th Century[20][21] | 31 | |||
| 2010 world average[22] | 67.2 |
5
U.S.
Libertarians Trail Meter Readers, Telling Town: Live Free or Else
Activists in Keene, N.H., are tracking parking officers, feeding expired meters and leaving notes saying “we saved you from the king’s tariff,” all in an effort to combat the “violent monopoly” of government.
6
Opinion
Finally, Some Optim.
ism About Obesity
We moved much more slowly to confront the dangers of smoking.
7
U.S.
For Justices, Free Speech Often Means ‘Speech I Agree With’
A study covering 1953 to 2011 found that “the votes of both liberal and conservative justices tend to reflect their preferences toward the ideological groupings of the speaker.”
8
U.S.
Before Ink Dries on Army Rules, Soldiers Rush to Get Tattoos
The Army is tightening its rules on body art — including restrictions on the size — but it is generally allowing tattoos acquired before the deadline.
9
World
Wounded Mayor Is Both Colorful and Powerful, Loved and Loathed
The shot that almost killed Mayor Gennady A. Kernes may yet prove fatal to Kharkiv as it seeks to maintain a fragile political balance in the weeks ahead without his guiding hand.
10
World
Uproar in Egypt After Judge Sentences More Than 680 to Death
An Egyptian judge sentenced the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood and hundreds of others on charges of inciting or committing acts of violence.
11
U.S.
One Execution Botched, Oklahoma Delays the Next
An inmate’s execution was stayed after another condemned man, Clayton D. Lockett, died in what witnesses said was an agonizing scene: He writhed and said, “Oh, man,” after being declared unconscious.
12
Health
Polio’s Return After Near Eradication Prompts a Global Health Warning
The World Health Organization issued a new alert on the disease, which was once thought to be nearly eradicated, saying three countries had allowed it to spread.
13
U.S.
At Derby Day With Murdoch, Rand Paul Goes Through His Paces
For Rand Paul, the would-be presidential candidate, and Rupert Murdoch, one of the most powerful Republican brokers, Saturday marked a potential turn in the 2016 campaign.
14
Your Money
A Path to Retirement, for Those Far From It
In a no-nonsense manual, an investment adviser has this warning for the young: Save now or pay later.
15
N.Y. / Region
Up in Years and All but Priced Out of New York
Finding adequate housing has become an all-consuming preoccupation for many aging residents, a group whose explosive growth and changing needs pose challenges for the city.
16
Science
Young Blood May Hold Key to Reversing Aging
After scientists found that blood from young mice rejuvenated the muscles and brains of old mice, experts said the research could lead to treatments for illnesses like Alzheimer’s disease.
17
Opinion
Smartphones and the 4th Amendment
The police should need a warrant to search mobile phones, because they contain enormous amounts of personal information.
18
U.S.
Arms Cache Most Likely Kept in Texas by the C.I.A.
An assortment of records compiled by a retired agency analyst points to a camp north of San Antonio as the site of “Midwest Depot,” a classified weapons stockpile.
19
Health
Mortality Drop Seen to Follow ’06 Health Law
The mortality rate in Massachusetts dropped sharply after the state overhauled health care in 2006, a study has found, offering evidence that universal coverage has saved lives, health economists say.
20
U.S.
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