1
Fashion & Style
Watchmakers Take a Spin in Detroit's Past
Though Detroit has its struggles, its auto history is being celebrated by watchmakers who are using its designs as inspiration for new time pieces.
2
N.Y. / Region
The Mayoral Candidates on Transportation
The New York Times asked the leading candidates in contested mayoral primaries three questions about transportation. The description of their positions is drawn from their responses and previous statements.
4
N.Y. / Region
Interrupting a Prayer Under a Streetlight
Metropolitan Diary: Some people kneeling on the sidewalk don’t want to be asked if they’re all right.
6
World
Tatyana I. Zaslavskaya, Adviser to Gorbachev, Dies at 86
Ms. Zaslavskaya, a Russian sociologist who founded a center to study public opinion, influenced Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s economic policies.
7
Business Day
Lending Start-Up CommonBond Raises $100 Million, With Pandit as Investor
Vikram S. Pandit, a former chief executive of Citigroup, is betting that a start-up that lends to M.B.A. students and refinances existing debt will be able to compete with the giants of Wall Street.
8
N.Y. / Region
The Mayoral Candidates on the Police
The New York Times asked the leading candidates in contested mayoral primaries three questions about crime. The description of their positions is drawn from their responses and previous statements.
9
Opinion
Reality Intrudes Before the Kickoff
The agreement to pay retired players who claim damage from concussions is an overdue step in the N.F.L.’s evolution.
10
Arts
For a Classic Motown Song About Money, Credit Is What He Wants
The songwriter Barrett Strong has had his name struck from copyright documents for “Money (That’s What I Want),” Motown’s first national hit.
11
N.Y. / Region
After Boy’s Suicide, Questions About Missed Signs
Bart Palosz’s death has a Connecticut community asking whether it did enough to address the bullying or to provide support for Bart, who had posted his suicidal thoughts on social media.
12
Business Day
Second Month of Inflation in Japan, but Consumer Spending Falls
Japan’s economic recovery gained momentum in July as manufacturing accelerated and consumer prices rose for a second straight month, despite weaker household spending and retail sales.Summers the Shiftless
A few months ago Christy Romer gave an excellent talk on the prospects for monetary policy in a liquidity trap, titled It Takes A Regime Shift
(pdf). As many of us have noted, the central bank has very little
direct traction when safe short-term rates are at the zero lower bound;
maybe it can achieve something by buying lots of unconventional assets
(“quantitative easing”), but its main hope of achieving anything is
through “expectations management” — convincing both financial markets
and players in the real economy that it will hold off much longer on
tightening once the economy improves than they currently expect, which
will lead to higher expected inflation and demand, and hence higher
spending now.
However, engineering such a change in expectations — what I long ago dubbed a credible promise to be irresponsible — is hard. How do you convince people that the central bank won’t just revert to type, always eager to snatch away the punchbowl, at the first signs of economic improvement?
Romer’s answer is that it takes a “regime shift” — a set of actions that reflect a clear break with the past. FDR achieved such a regime shift in the 1930s by going off the gold standard, and in general by bringing in a, well, New Deal. Shinzo Abe may (the returns aren’t in yet) be achieving something similar simply by talking and acting in such a seemingly un-Japanese way; I suspect that Abenomics is working better than one might have expected precisely because Abe seemed to be such an ordinary Japanese machine politician, until he started moving on economic policy.
This, I think, is the way to read today’s report by Binyamin Applebaum on how the rising odds of a Summers appointment to the Fed is already having a chilling effect on the economy. A Yellen appointment would clearly have represented something new at the Fed — not just because she is, as Garrison Keillor used to say, a person of gender, but also because she has been a strong and consistent monetary dove, and took that position before it was fashionable.
Summers, on the other hand, while he often expresses unconventional views when not in office, has a strong tendency to revert to conventionality when in office. And leaving Summers the person on one side, just think of the historical connections: can you imagine a stronger signal that the same old regime is staying in place than choosing a Robert Rubin protege at this late date?
So the apparent decision to appoint Summers is a strong anti-regime-shift signal on Obama’s part.
Now, we can hope that if Summers actually does get the job, he’ll realize the problem — and realize that he needs to pull his own version of what Abe has pulled off in Japan, saying and doing things that shock people into realizing that he isn’t going to be the conventional-wisdom guy they expected. And this is, in fact, my advice to Summers if he is the guy: don’t spend your first few months being mild-mannered and winning friends. What this economy needs is a monetary shock — and if you don’t do it right away, you probably won’t get a second chance."
However, engineering such a change in expectations — what I long ago dubbed a credible promise to be irresponsible — is hard. How do you convince people that the central bank won’t just revert to type, always eager to snatch away the punchbowl, at the first signs of economic improvement?
Romer’s answer is that it takes a “regime shift” — a set of actions that reflect a clear break with the past. FDR achieved such a regime shift in the 1930s by going off the gold standard, and in general by bringing in a, well, New Deal. Shinzo Abe may (the returns aren’t in yet) be achieving something similar simply by talking and acting in such a seemingly un-Japanese way; I suspect that Abenomics is working better than one might have expected precisely because Abe seemed to be such an ordinary Japanese machine politician, until he started moving on economic policy.
This, I think, is the way to read today’s report by Binyamin Applebaum on how the rising odds of a Summers appointment to the Fed is already having a chilling effect on the economy. A Yellen appointment would clearly have represented something new at the Fed — not just because she is, as Garrison Keillor used to say, a person of gender, but also because she has been a strong and consistent monetary dove, and took that position before it was fashionable.
Summers, on the other hand, while he often expresses unconventional views when not in office, has a strong tendency to revert to conventionality when in office. And leaving Summers the person on one side, just think of the historical connections: can you imagine a stronger signal that the same old regime is staying in place than choosing a Robert Rubin protege at this late date?
So the apparent decision to appoint Summers is a strong anti-regime-shift signal on Obama’s part.
Now, we can hope that if Summers actually does get the job, he’ll realize the problem — and realize that he needs to pull his own version of what Abe has pulled off in Japan, saying and doing things that shock people into realizing that he isn’t going to be the conventional-wisdom guy they expected. And this is, in fact, my advice to Summers if he is the guy: don’t spend your first few months being mild-mannered and winning friends. What this economy needs is a monetary shock — and if you don’t do it right away, you probably won’t get a second chance."
13
Fashion & Style
Watch Brands Look to the Ocean
A few watch brands have aligned themselves with nonprofit causes dedicated to the sea. Their most visible contributions, however, are ocean-theme timepieces.
14
Opinion
From Lynas to Pollan, Agreement that Golden Rice Trials Should Proceed
Two recent reports by journalists strip away distortions and myths surrounding the controversy over genetically engineered Golden Rice.
15
16
Crosswords/Games
Joe Fendel's Long Walk Home
You promise to come right home after school to do chores, but you didn’t promise to come straight home. How long can your trip be?
17
U.S.
Man Who Held Ohio Women Captive Is Found Dead
Ariel Castro, who was sentenced to life in prison for holding three women captive in his Cleveland home for a decade, was found hanging in his prison cell, officials said.
18
World
Assad Wages War Shielded With a Smile
President Bashar al-Assad’s public activities mask increasing aggression in battle and belie fears among many supporters of an American attack.
19
World
Rodman Returns to North Korea to See Kim
Mr. Rodman, the former basketball star who says he is a friend of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, played down speculation that he hoped to secure the release of a detained American.
20
World
Drawing a Line on Syria, U.S. Keeps Eye on Iran Policy
Two recent diplomatic ventures have raised hopes that the United States will be able to strike Syria without compromising efforts toward easing tensions with Iran.
1
U.S.
Judge Is Asked by Creditors of Archdiocese to Leave Case
Where one side in a Milwaukee Archdiocese bankruptcy case sees a conflict of interest, the other sees an effort at judge shopping.
2
3
Business Day
Auto Sales Are Soaring, Propelled by Leases
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all had strong months as lower lease payments helped dealers move the inventory of new cars and trucks.
4
Your Money
Deciding When to Enter a Palliative Care Unit
Patients with fatal conditions who aren’t ready for hospice care may opt for a plan that focuses on treating symptoms and offering emotional support.
5
Technology
Planting Your Flag on a Patch of the Web
New options will make buying an Internet domain easier, but the process can still be fraught with problems.
6
7
N.Y. / Region
In Hynes Ad, Praise for the Boss
8
Business Day
Nevada's Jobless Feel the Sequester
Through the end of the month, benefits to the long-term unemployed will be cut by 59 percent because the state delayed carrying out cutbacks in federally funded programs until the fiscal year’s final weeks.
10
Home & Garden
What’s Best, LED or Incandescent Lights?
Advice on lighting that will appeal to home buyers.
11
Business Day
In Fed Succession, Obama’s Favorite Faces Opposition
Decision time is here, and while President Obama has not settled on who should take over the Federal Reserve, he still favors Lawrence Summers.Bankers, Workers, Obama and Summers
Brad DeLong
has an excellent piece distinguishing between two views of central
banking. There’s the “banking camp,” which sees the central bank’s job
as being to secure the stability of the financial system – full stop.
OK, maybe also price stability. And then there’s the “macroeconomics
camp,” which sees the central bank’s job as being to achieve full
employment; banking stability and even price stability are basically
means towards that end.
Brad complains that the Fed has ended up being much more in the banking camp than many macroeconomists would have wanted. See, for example, the harsh criticisms leveled at the Bank of Japan by one Ben Bernanke in 2000, criticisms that apply almost perfectly to the Bernanke Fed of today.
But I think Brad casts his net too narrowly: it’s not just central bankers who fall into these two camps. And one important consequence of this division is an utterly different read on recent history.
Ask yourself: How well did we respond to the crisis of 2008?
If you’re in the banking camp, here’s what you see:
The financial system was in great danger – but catastrophe was averted. We’re heroes!
On the other hand, if you’re in the macroeconomics camp, here’s what you see:
A catastrophic collapse in employment, with only a modest recovery
even after all these years. (It looks a bit better if you adjust for an
aging population, but not much). We blew it!
Which brings us to what looks more and more like Obama’s decision to choose Larry Summers as Fed chair, passing over Janet Yellen.
As of right now, Summers is clearly not in the banking camp; the stuff he has been writing about fiscal policy makes it clear that he very much believes that the job of economic recovery is not done. On that basis, you would expect him to prod the Fed into doing much more than it is. On the other hand, given Bernanke’s pre-Fed record you would have expected the same thing — maybe even more so, because Bernanke had strongly emphasized the central bank’s responsibility for economic growth. Once at the Fed, however, Bernanke appears to have been assimilated by the Borg, moving much closer to the banking camp.
Would the same thing happen to Summers? I worry. And one of the strong (though probably futile at this point) arguments for Yellen is that she spent years at the Fed without being assimilated, never losing sight of the crucial importance of employment.
While Summers isn’t in the banking camp, however, Obama is. As Ezra Klein explains, his choice of Summers clearly reflects his view that policy in 2009-2010 was a great success, not a big disappointment, and he wants to keep the winning team together.
Of course, it’s a lot easier for Obama to consider his policies a success given that he was reelected.
Obviously I’m in the macroeconomics camp, not the banking camp, so this is all depressing, in several senses. It means, among other things, that even if Summers is the right choice — which we’ll never really know — it’s a choice that Obama is making for all the wrong reasons."
Brad complains that the Fed has ended up being much more in the banking camp than many macroeconomists would have wanted. See, for example, the harsh criticisms leveled at the Bank of Japan by one Ben Bernanke in 2000, criticisms that apply almost perfectly to the Bernanke Fed of today.
But I think Brad casts his net too narrowly: it’s not just central bankers who fall into these two camps. And one important consequence of this division is an utterly different read on recent history.
Ask yourself: How well did we respond to the crisis of 2008?
If you’re in the banking camp, here’s what you see:
On the other hand, if you’re in the macroeconomics camp, here’s what you see:
Which brings us to what looks more and more like Obama’s decision to choose Larry Summers as Fed chair, passing over Janet Yellen.
As of right now, Summers is clearly not in the banking camp; the stuff he has been writing about fiscal policy makes it clear that he very much believes that the job of economic recovery is not done. On that basis, you would expect him to prod the Fed into doing much more than it is. On the other hand, given Bernanke’s pre-Fed record you would have expected the same thing — maybe even more so, because Bernanke had strongly emphasized the central bank’s responsibility for economic growth. Once at the Fed, however, Bernanke appears to have been assimilated by the Borg, moving much closer to the banking camp.
Would the same thing happen to Summers? I worry. And one of the strong (though probably futile at this point) arguments for Yellen is that she spent years at the Fed without being assimilated, never losing sight of the crucial importance of employment.
While Summers isn’t in the banking camp, however, Obama is. As Ezra Klein explains, his choice of Summers clearly reflects his view that policy in 2009-2010 was a great success, not a big disappointment, and he wants to keep the winning team together.
Of course, it’s a lot easier for Obama to consider his policies a success given that he was reelected.
Obviously I’m in the macroeconomics camp, not the banking camp, so this is all depressing, in several senses. It means, among other things, that even if Summers is the right choice — which we’ll never really know — it’s a choice that Obama is making for all the wrong reasons."
13
14
17
Dining & Wine
Leaving a Tip: A Custom in Need of Changing?
Americans have stuck with the practice because all parties thought it worked in their favor, but a re-evaluation is now in order.
19
U.S.
Bar Mitzvahs Get New Look to Build Faith
American Jews often view the coming-of-age ceremony not as an entry to Jewish life, but as a graduation ceremony. A new initiative by the Reform movement is out to change that.
20
No comments:
Post a Comment