There was not a lot of interesting news today.
I am still waiting for the wheels to come off Europe.
The Atlantic hurricane season is benign so far.
The water is rapidly cooling.
There is still plenty of heat there but not much ambition.
There is frost in the Adirondacks and most of Vermont and New Hampshire.
It would be a great week to do the White Mountain Huts.
Italy shares these problems. They are not as sick.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/business/global/economics-of-everyday-greek-life-is-eroding-euro-or-no.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
LEVIDI, Greece — Gregoris Skouros stepped out of the sawed-off cargo container that hard times have forced him to make his home in on an agricultural plain near this tiny village, a two-hour drive south of Athens.
Multimedia
When a visitor raised the issue on everyone’s minds — Greece’s future in
the euro zone — Mr. Skouros pursed his lips for a long moment before
speaking.
“The problem has now gone beyond whether we remain in the euro or not,” said Mr. Skouros, 54. “The issue is, Can Greece be fixed?”
That question has taken on new urgency as Prime Minister Antonis Samaras
makes a renewed effort this week to assemble an austerity budget
package that can persuade Greece’s creditors to release a 31.5 billion
euro ($41.1 billion) loan installment for the country in October. Even
now, auditors from Greece’s troika of international lenders are
examining the books in Athens to determine whether the country is on
track to repair its tattered finances.
But even if Greece receives yet another lifeline from its European
partners, many Greeks have reached their own conclusion: It doesn’t
matter.
While the economics of everyday life continue to erode, the big concern
is that Greece’s leaders are doing almost nothing to root out
deep-seated problems that hobble a return to growth, including
bureaucracy and bribery.
That dark public mood — also evident in widespread work stoppages in
Greece this week and a general strike planned for next week — could make
it all the harder for Mr. Samaras’s government to push through
Parliament his 11.5 billion euro package of austerity measures. A budget
deal could be the country’s last, best hope for getting the next round
of international loans it needs to stay part of the euro union.
Recognizing the domestic political challenges facing Mr. Samaras, whose
shaky three-party coalition came to power in June after two national
elections, European officials seem willing to give him a bit more time.
European finance ministers meeting in the Cypriot capital of Nicosia
last weekend signaled that willingness, and on Monday so did the German
chancellor, Angela Merkel. Given the political alternatives in Greece,
European leaders might see little choice but to continue betting on Mr.
Samaras.
Right now, in fact, it may be the increasingly impatient Greek public
that is the prime minister’s bigger challenge. The popularity of the
neo-fascist Golden Dawn party, which won 18 parliamentary seats in the
last election, has climbed in recent weeks. The main leftist opposition
party, Syriza, is now virtually tied with Mr. Samaras’s New Democracy
party in the polls.
Mr. Skouros, who voted for the socialist Pasok party that was ousted
from power this year, said he was no longer sure for whom he would vote
if elections were held yet again.
“The problems of Greece are so widespread,” he said, shielding his eyes
from a blazing sun as he looked across the stretch of farm country that
he now calls home. “It would take a Marshall Plan with outside
inspectors coming into every government operation and looking over
people’s shoulders to make sure that change really happens.”
The Greek economy, already in the fifth year of recession, has slumped
even further in recent months as a series of earlier state salary and
spending cuts, together with sharp tax increases, take their toll on an
austerity-weary public.
Growth contracted 6.2 percent in the second quarter and is expected to
decline nearly 7 percent this year, far worse than the 4.2 percent
forecast just a few months ago by the so-called troika of international
lenders: the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and
the European Commission. Unemployment rose to 23.6 percent last month.
With the Samaras government’s latest proposals to cut state salaries and
pensions even more, Greeks — including doctors, firefighters and large
swaths of the national police force — have taken to the streets. So far
the demonstrations have been peaceful.
But some people are bracing for the possibility of civil unrest on Sept.
26, when a planned nationwide strike is expected to bring things in
Greece grinding to a halt.
While Mr. Samaras has promised that this latest austerity package will
be the last round of cuts on his watch, critics say the bigger issue is
that too little is being done to rehabilitate the competitiveness of the
Greek economy or attract foreign investment. The troika has been
signaling as much by insisting that the government take bolder steps to
slim the bloated state sector; clamp down on waste, inefficiency and
corruption; and reduce the thickets of administrative hurdles that
stifle entrepreneurship in Greece.
Mr. Skouros agrees. Without fundamental changes, he says, Greece may
have little hope of being anything more than a ward of the European
state for years to come.
He speaks from experience, having run the Greek gantlet when he tried to restart his life two years ago.
That was after the elevator parts and service business he had owned and
run in Athens for a decade began slumping along with the economy, after
the extent of Greece’s debt crisis became evident. He and his son,
Tassos, 24, looked for ways to make a fresh start.
After studying a variety of business prospects, Mr. Skouros moved in
2010 to this vast agricultural swath of Arcadia to set up a
snail-farming enterprise. Escargots, it turns out, can be a lucrative
export, snapped up by the truckload as a culinary delicacy by
restaurants and shops in Italy and France.
To save money, he settled into a trailer that he combined with half a
cargo container to make his homestead on a small plot he bought, joining
a rising number of urban Greeks who are returning to the countryside as
jobs and business opportunities dry up in big cities.
But Mr. Skouros faced obstacles from the get-go. Escargots might be a
potentially lucrative cash crop, but banks would not take the risk of
lending to him. And obtaining a business permit turned into its own
18-month odyssey, with numerous visits to government offices and the
occasional request for bribes.
“In Greece, it has always been the case that you pay a bribe — to get
your driver’s license, at the hospital, and even when starting a
business,” he said. “Now things have gotten so bad, the trend has become
even worse.”
He said the corruption and nepotism that the troika had also identified
as hurdles to reviving the economy were all too apparent even here in
rural Greece.
In many agricultural regions, it is not uncommon for people with Civil
Service jobs to grow crops on the side while continuing to collect their
pay from the state. He spoke of one man who often tended to his tomato
crop during the summer instead of going to work in the office where he
was a civil servant.
The tomatoes bring in an estimated 25,000 euros a year, much of it collected in cash to avoid paying full taxes.
The local tax collector was a close friend of the man, “so it’s no
wonder that full taxes are not imposed,” Mr. Skouros said. “In the
meantime, this man is getting a paycheck from the state even while he is
working in the field.”
Mr. Skouros said he was not certain the Samaras government — or any
government, for that matter — would be able to surmount the culture of
corruption that taints even the most basic functions of Greek society.
As it is, he said, the prime minister now seems more focused on an
international audience than on his country’s own voters, trying to forge
the austerity plan that will placate the troika and begin repairing the
international reputation of Greece.
Fingering an escargot shell in his palm, Mr. Skouros said he still hoped
his business would take off. But so far, given all the delays, he said
he had not yet been able to start exporting or generating any revenue.
He cast a long, silent stare across the farmland. Whether or not Greece
stays in the euro, or gets yet another lifeline from the troika in the
coming months, he finally said, corruption, bribery and bureaucracy are
weighing on Greece even more than the debt on which outsiders are so
fixated.
“Are we ever going to be able to change things?” he asked. “Probably not without a revolution.”
The Greeks need their own currency. There will then be no one else to bear responsibility.
19 Sep 2012:
UGT union head João Proença tells Portuguese PM that tax move will fuel type of social strife seen in Greece
There is still no combination of bankrupts that is not bankrupt.
Greece embarks on a firesale
19 Sep 2012:
Islands, palaces royal estates and embassies must go as fears grow that country has entered full-blown depression
The causal relation here is not clear to me.
Greece is of far more value as a going concern than as raw property. A chapter 11 rather than a chapter 9.
Debt crisis: Greece sells London property to raise funds
19 Sep 2012
| 1 Comment
Time for another election in Greece. Philip can buy his boyhood home.
This is polar ice extent yesterday. I have not discovered how to copy the picture here. The polar bears will have to summer further north.
http://nsidc.org/data/masie/index.html
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/png/masie_all_r00_v01_2012262_4km.png
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/nation-of-takers/
Nation of Takers
Do today’s Republicans really believe that 47 percent of Americans are “takers”, living off money confiscated from the “makers”?
No: the evidence suggests that the GOP believes that the fraction of takers/moochers is much higher, in fact at least twice that high.
Ask yourself: when was the last time a Republican leader made a point of praising hard-working, ordinary families — as opposed to “job creators”? Think about what happened on Labor Day: on a day dedicated to celebrating workers, House majority leader Eric Cantor sent out a tweet praising … business owners:
In a way, people like Romney agree with Occupy: it’s them against the 99 percent, except that they consider the 1 percent to be the people being exploited."
No: the evidence suggests that the GOP believes that the fraction of takers/moochers is much higher, in fact at least twice that high.
Ask yourself: when was the last time a Republican leader made a point of praising hard-working, ordinary families — as opposed to “job creators”? Think about what happened on Labor Day: on a day dedicated to celebrating workers, House majority leader Eric Cantor sent out a tweet praising … business owners:
Today, we celebrate those who have taken a risk, worked hard, built a business and earned their own success.This all makes sense in the Ayn Rand intellectual universe, where a handful of heroically greedy entrepreneurs are responsible for all that is good. And if you live in that universe, your dividing line between makers and takers isn’t drawn at the point where people make enough to pay income taxes; everyone who isn’t John Galt should be grateful for what the Galts do, and we’re all takers by asking those heroes to pay any taxes at all.
In a way, people like Romney agree with Occupy: it’s them against the 99 percent, except that they consider the 1 percent to be the people being exploited."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/misinformed-monetary-mitt/
Misinformed Monetary Mitt
Leave
aside what the now-famous video tells us about Mitt Romney’s character;
in a way the shocking thing is how uninformed he seems to be. The 47
percent number was the kind of thing you hear in yahoo forums like talk
radio and the Wall Street Journal editorial page; and then there’s what
he said about US debt.
Kevin Drum makes the catch:
So
there was a period when the Fed was buying a large fraction of federal
debt issue — but it didn’t last long. Many people did believe that
terrible things would happen when the Fed stopped — among them Bill
Gross. And you know what? They lost a lot of money, because the Fed bond
purchases came to an end but interest rates kept going down:
And yes, I called this one right.
But that’s not crucial here. What is crucial is that a sort of urban
legend developed that the only thing keeping rates low was the Fed; this
legend was proved wrong by events; but Mitt Romney still believes it.
And why does he believe it? Because he talked to some guy.
Look, Romney is a presidential candidate. He has a staff, and some prominent economists allegedly advising him. Yet he draws his stories about the economy from what he heard somewhere, apparently believing that if the right sort of person says something there’s no need to check it out.
Awesome."
Kevin Drum makes the catch:
[A]s soon as the Fed stops buying all the debt that we’re issuing—which they’ve been doing, the Fed’s buying like three-quarters of the debt that America issues. He said, once that’s over, he said we’re going to have a failed Treasury auction, interest rates are going to have to go up. We’re living in this borrowed fantasy world, where the government keeps on borrowing money.Has the Fed been buying anything like three-quarters of the debt that we’re issuing? Here’s a comparison between two numbers: the increase in the value of federal debt held by the public (which in this case includes the Fed), and the increase in Fed holdings of federal debt, in each case measured over the previous year:
And why does he believe it? Because he talked to some guy.
Look, Romney is a presidential candidate. He has a staff, and some prominent economists allegedly advising him. Yet he draws his stories about the economy from what he heard somewhere, apparently believing that if the right sort of person says something there’s no need to check it out.
Awesome."
http://soberlook.com/2012/09/western-expats-saying-goodbye-to-china.html
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Western expats saying goodbye to China does not bode well for economic growth
Anecdotal evidence suggests that increasing numbers of western expats are beginning to leave China. A recent article that has gone viral in the expat community in China called "Why I’m leaving the country I loved" describes some of the reasons. Mark Kitto provides a blistering critique of the Chinese Communist Party and China's treatment of foreigners.
Prospect: - ... Nor is the Chinese Communist Party entirely averse to condoning slavery. It has encouraged its own people to work like slaves to produce goods for western companies, to earn the foreign currency that has fed its economic boom. (How ironic that the Party manifesto promised to kick the slave-driving foreigners out of China.) And the Party wouldn’t know a legal system if you swung the scales of justice under its metaphorical nose. (I was once a plaintiff in the Beijing High Court. I was told, off the record, that I had won my case. While my lawyer was on his way to collect the decision the judge received a telephone call. The decision was reversed.)Besides some of the reasons specific to China, expats leaving a nation can be a leading indicator of weaker economic growth. For example the number of expats in Japan apparently also declined in the 90s, although exact numbers are difficult to pinpoint. What is clear however is that a bubble economy often creates unrealistic expectations about future growth, attracting capital and talent. And when the bubble bursts, years of sub-par growth ensue.
Prospect: - When the bubble pops, or in the remote chance that it deflates gradually, the wealth the [China's Communist] Party gave the people will deflate too. The promise will have been broken. And there’ll still be the medical bills, pensions and school fees. The people will want their money back, or a say in their future, which amounts to a political voice. If they are denied, they will cease to be harmonious.If Japan is any indication of such an adjustment, the correction could be severe indeed. After the peak in the 90s and the subsequent decline, the nation's GDP growth has never recovered.
 |
| Japan GDP as % of global GDP (source: MBH). |
Perhaps the most striking comparison between the 90s Japan and the current day China is the stock market, which - just as the expat numbers - tends to be a leading indicator for the GDP. The comparison between the two stock markets is shown below.
Clearly, the differences between these two nations' economic paths are great. But just as the decline in the stock market, this expat exodus from China - if it is indeed occurring - should be taken seriously.
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Links 9/19/12
[Readers, sorry for the delay. A technical kerfuffle prevented Links from being posted in a timely fashion. --lambert]
Reindeer at risk from snow sport BBC
A Faded Piece of Papyrus Refers to Jesus’ Wife New York Times
Flesh-Eating Bacteria: Researchers Challenge Doctors To Diagnosis Necrotizing Fasciitis Early Huffington Post (Carol B). Eeew!
Microsoft pushes home users toward Office subscriptions—whether they like it or not ars technica
Money still leaving China MacroBusiness
Asia’s millionaires outgrow those in N America Financial Times
Jawboning Spain MacroBusiness
Faust and the German aversion to debt FTAlphaville
Afghan ‘insider’ attacks alter exit strategy Los Angeles Times
Romney’s Breakfast of Billionaires Greg Palast
Romney under fire from all sides Financial Times
Where Do Romney’s ‘Moochers’ Live? Bill Browning (furzy mouse)
Women’s Group Plans “WTF Awards” to “Honor” Akin, Brewer, Limbaugh for Worst Misogyny Alternet (furzy mouse)
Map Shows What Happens To New York Airspace When Air Force One Comes To Town Clusterstock. I’d love a map of what it does to street traffic. I’ve seen a (presumably divorced) father unable to get his under 10 year old daughter back home to her mother due to an Obama fundraiser. No one was being allowed to leave their buildings or enter the block for a two plus hour period, meaning that not only could the father (or even the daughter alone) get home, the mother could not come to the police barricade to escort her daughter either. Similarly, during an earlier fundraiser, it was pretty much impossible to get out of midtown any other way than on foot (avenues were hopelessly backed up, so busses and taxis were out, and the subways were jam packed and pretty much unworkable. As a result, I walked 30+ blocks home. Thank God I was on the correct side of the avenue when I started my hike. Police weren’t letting people cross Park Avenue over a huge cordoned area. Even showing an ID with an address cut no ice with the cops (I saw people pleading and getting nowhere).
American Real Estate Investors Seek Opportunities in European Debt Crisis New York Times
Mitt Romney Tax Clarifications Lee Shepard, Forbes. From last week but still important.
Chicago Teachers Union Votes to Suspend Strike David Dayen, Firedoglake
Treasury International Capital Hit the Record High Since January BondSquawk
Arbitration Agreements Adam Levitin, Credit Slips
CHART OF THE DAY: Morgan Stanley Expects A Horrible Finish For The Market This Year Clusterstock
Rising Tower Emerges as a Billionaires’ Haven New York Times
A Rare Look at Why The Government Won’t Fight Wall Street Matt Taibbi
Police and Occupy: An Abusive Relationship Kit OConnell, Firedoglake
The importance of Occupy Felix Salmon
* * *
Reindeer at risk from snow sport BBC
A Faded Piece of Papyrus Refers to Jesus’ Wife New York Times
Flesh-Eating Bacteria: Researchers Challenge Doctors To Diagnosis Necrotizing Fasciitis Early Huffington Post (Carol B). Eeew!
Microsoft pushes home users toward Office subscriptions—whether they like it or not ars technica
Money still leaving China MacroBusiness
Asia’s millionaires outgrow those in N America Financial Times
Jawboning Spain MacroBusiness
Faust and the German aversion to debt FTAlphaville
Afghan ‘insider’ attacks alter exit strategy Los Angeles Times
Romney’s Breakfast of Billionaires Greg Palast
Romney under fire from all sides Financial Times
Where Do Romney’s ‘Moochers’ Live? Bill Browning (furzy mouse)
Women’s Group Plans “WTF Awards” to “Honor” Akin, Brewer, Limbaugh for Worst Misogyny Alternet (furzy mouse)
Map Shows What Happens To New York Airspace When Air Force One Comes To Town Clusterstock. I’d love a map of what it does to street traffic. I’ve seen a (presumably divorced) father unable to get his under 10 year old daughter back home to her mother due to an Obama fundraiser. No one was being allowed to leave their buildings or enter the block for a two plus hour period, meaning that not only could the father (or even the daughter alone) get home, the mother could not come to the police barricade to escort her daughter either. Similarly, during an earlier fundraiser, it was pretty much impossible to get out of midtown any other way than on foot (avenues were hopelessly backed up, so busses and taxis were out, and the subways were jam packed and pretty much unworkable. As a result, I walked 30+ blocks home. Thank God I was on the correct side of the avenue when I started my hike. Police weren’t letting people cross Park Avenue over a huge cordoned area. Even showing an ID with an address cut no ice with the cops (I saw people pleading and getting nowhere).
American Real Estate Investors Seek Opportunities in European Debt Crisis New York Times
Mitt Romney Tax Clarifications Lee Shepard, Forbes. From last week but still important.
Chicago Teachers Union Votes to Suspend Strike David Dayen, Firedoglake
Treasury International Capital Hit the Record High Since January BondSquawk
Arbitration Agreements Adam Levitin, Credit Slips
CHART OF THE DAY: Morgan Stanley Expects A Horrible Finish For The Market This Year Clusterstock
Rising Tower Emerges as a Billionaires’ Haven New York Times
A Rare Look at Why The Government Won’t Fight Wall Street Matt Taibbi
Police and Occupy: An Abusive Relationship Kit OConnell, Firedoglake
The importance of Occupy Felix Salmon
* * *
I really do not have much interest in your police record.
I have thought about it. I just don't care.
Vermont is dairy. A dairy farm is just hard work.
Rates are on debt. I have no payments because I have no monetary debt.
Be very careful if you contact this operation. Fraud is dominant in such .
Vocabulary is only the beginning of language.
I doubt there is a royal road to mastery.
A home warranty is insurance with a low deductible.
As such it will cost significantly more than accepting more risk and paying
in cash and kind. The result will please you more than the low bid operator.
I have noticed that a new printer has been cheaper than a few new ink cartridges.
I have been very disappointed with H.P. printers.
The choice for ink-jet printers is Epsom.
The ink is archival. The paper is good.
Jewelry is very personal.
Quality of manufacture is the game. The object should please the owner. The price, within the means of the buyer, is immaterial.
I am not unwilling to save money.
I want the piece to be properly symbolic.
I also want it to be durable.
I do broadcast here. Dish has more but does not do up link. Their interactive is by wire.
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