Tuesday, July 10, 2012

@21:30, 7/10/12

The euro did not die today.  It probably will not die tomorrow.

I do not expect it to survive the month. This is just one more loss of hope.
The dollar will survive.  The international banks will be deeply troubled.


Germans in court battle to block eurozone bailouts

The German Constitutional Court may take up to three months to rule on an injunction by private citizens and Left-wing lawmakers aimed at blocking the eurozone bailout machinery, leaving markets hanging in suspense as the eurozone debt crisis eats at confidence.
10 Jul 2012
| 82 Comments

Debt crisis: as it happened - July 10, 2012

French president says policy to raise taxes for the highest earners is "not a punishment," as Sir Mervyn King warns of the damaging effect of the euro crisis on Britain and businesses around the world.
10 Jul 2012
| 957 Comments

Spain vows to 'deep clean' financial sector

Under the deal to bailout Spain's stricken banks, the Government must come up with a roadmap of structural reforms by the end of July.
10 Jul 2012
| 93 Comments

Anti-business anger is threat to UK prosperity

Most people have little love for the market economy: they tolerate it when the going is good, and turn against it in bad times.
10 Jul 2012
| 37 Comments

Spanish miners' strike

Coal miners fire handmade rockets during clashes with the Spanish riot civil guard at the Pozo Santiago coal mine in Aller, northern Spain
Striking Spanish miners fire homemade rockets at police.
10 Jul 2012

Portugal's recession expected to ease this year

The Portuguese economy is set to shrink by 3pc this year instead of 3.4pc forecast previously, the national central bank has said.
10 Jul 2012
| 5 Comments

Surprise jump in China trade surplus as imports weaken

China's trade surplus expanded by a larger-than-expected 42.9pc year-on-year in June as demand for imports weakened in the world's second-biggest economy, official data showed Tuesday.
10 Jul 2012
| 3 Comments

Paul Tucker denies role in Libor rate-fixing

The Bank of England's deputy Governor Paul Tucker strongly denies suggestions that government ministers pressured him to encourage banks to manipulate interest rates in a scandal gripping the UK's financial sector.
10 Jul 2012
| Comment

EuroGroup reaches agreement on Spain bailout

Eurozone ministers agree to grant Spain an extra year until 2014 to reach its deficit reduction targets in exchange for further budget savings, and set the parameters of an aid package for Madrid's ailing banks.
10 Jul 2012
| 2 Comments

IMF chief 'alarmed' by rising protectionism

IMF chief Christine Lagarde said signs of increased protectionism amid deteriorating global economic conditions were "alarming", and warned such measures affect everyone.
10 Jul 2012
| 3 Comments

Eurozone offers Spain €30bn urgent funding

Euro area finance ministers have agreed on the terms of a bailout for Spain's troubled banks, saying that €30bn can be ready by end of this month to help save one of the largest countries in the eurozone from needing a full bailout.
10 Jul 2012
| 90 Comments

Debt crisis: ECB pledges action as southern Europe buckles

The European Central Bank has vowed to do whatever it takes to hold the euro together after the North-South gap in borrowing costs reached fresh extremes, pushing the two halves of monetary union closer to breaking point.
09 Jul 2012
| 234 Comments


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/debt-crisis


http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/euro_crisis/

German To Lead Permanent Bailout Fund A Success and a Setback for Berlin in Brussels

SPIEGEL ONLINE - July 10, 2012 Klaus Regling has mostly acted behind the scenes in the euro crisis, but on Tuesday EU finance minister elevated him to one of the most powerful positions in the fight to save the euro. He will now lead the permanent euro bailout fund. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, however, failed to secure support to become Euro Group president. By Maria Marquart more... Forum ]
Bigger Delay to ESM: Court May Take Longer to Rule on Euro Measures

Bigger Delay to ESM Court May Take Longer to Rule on Euro Measures

SPIEGEL ONLINE - July 10, 2012 The German Constitutional Court may take several months, rather than the expected three weeks, to decide on a request that it issue a temporary injunction blocking measures to rescue the euro. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble urged the court to hurry up Tuesday, warning that a delay could lead to a further market turbulence. more...
German Labor Minister on Euro Rescue: 'The Constitution Still Provides Us with Leeway'

German Labor Minister on Euro Rescue 'The Constitution Still Provides Us with Leeway'

SPIEGEL ONLINE - July 10, 2012 Germany's highest court on Tuesday is considering legal challenges to the ratification of the EU's long-term euro bailout fund and fiscal pact. In an interview, German Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen discusses her government's euro rescue policies and why she believes the German constitution still provides plenty of leeway for further European integration. more... Forum ]
Green Light for Bailout: Euro Group Agrees to Lend Spain 30 Billion Euros

Green Light for Bailout Euro Group Agrees to Lend Spain 30 Billion Euros

SPIEGEL ONLINE - July 10, 2012 At their meeting in Brussels on Monday evening, the Euro Group of euro-zone finance ministers agreed to lend 30 billion euros to Spain to help its troubled banks. They could not, however, agree on who should succeed Jean-Claude Juncker as head of the group. He will now stay in his position until the end of the year. By Carsten Volkery more... Forum ]
Veiled Criticism From Joachim Gauck: President Tells Merkel to Explain Her Euro Policies

Veiled Criticism From Joachim Gauck President Tells Merkel to Explain Her Euro Policies

SPIEGEL ONLINE - July 09, 2012 In a swipe at the German chancellor, President Joachim Gauck urged Angela Merkel on Sunday to explain to Germans what her euro policies mean. He said she has a duty to tell the country "in great detail" what she is doing to combat the euro crisis. more...

It is not 30 but 130 billion euro.  The Spanish banks are liquid.
Bankruptcy is unchanged.  The bad debts are not cleared.  The banks are not recapitalized.  No credit has changed hands.  The credit is in the form of debt.  The hole is deeper.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/10/1078701/the-bail-in-spain/?updatedcontent=1

The bail-in Spain

With a big hat-tip to El Pais, the draft memorandum of understanding for Spain’s bailout. We’re still reading through all the conditions imposed on Spanish banks…. Click pic for full doc
Featuring bank bail-ins for subordinated debt, notably:

And also a Nama-style bad bank to begin buying distressed loans in November:

Update – A couple of other sidelights…
This paragraph doesn’t really restore faith in Spanish bank bad loan provisions to date, including Spain’s once-feted dynamic provisioning:
The current framework for loan-loss provisioning will be re-assessed.
On the back of the experiences of the financial crisis, the Spanish authorities will make proposals to revamp the permanent framework for loan loss provisioning, taking into account the temporary measures introduced during the past months, as well as the EU accounting framework. Furthermore, the authorities will explore the possibility to revise the calibration of dynamic provisions on the basis of the experience gathered during the current financial crisis. To this end, the authorities will submit by mid-December 2012, a policy document for consultation to the European Commission, ECB, EBA and IMF on the amendment of the provisioning framework if and once Royal Decree Laws 2/2012 and 18/2012 cease to apply.
While going back to the bail-in point — this bit on retail investors:
Consumer protection and securities legislation, and compliance monitoring by the authorities, should be strengthened, in order to limit the sale by banks of subordinate debt instruments to non-qualified retail clients and to substantially improve the process for the sale of any instruments not covered by the deposit guarantee fund to retail clients. This should include increased transparency on the characteristics of these instruments and the consequent risks in order to guarantee full awareness of the retail clients. The Spanish authorities will propose specific legislation in this respect by end-February 2013.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/overview/

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10 July 2012 Last updated at 20:55 ET

Spain rescue 'a victory for euro'Bankia's headquarters in Madrid (file image)

Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy says a decision by eurozone ministers to help Spain shore up its struggling banks is a "victory for the euro". 271

Chinese woman filling bike with fuelChina in further fuel price cut

China, the second biggest consumer of fuel, has cut retail prices by about 5% starting Wednesday, as oil demand falls.

Bob Diamond leaves after giving evidence to the Treasury Select CommitteeDiamond responds to MPs' claims

Ex-Barclays boss Bob Diamond says he is "dismayed" by MPs' views that he was "less than candid" when he appeared before a parliamentary committee last week.
  • China's trade surplus widens

    China's trade surplus widened in June as import growth weakened, underscoring worries about both the domestic and global economy.
  • San Francisco to stop buying Macs

    San Francisco's Department of Environment plans to ban city agencies from buying Macs after Apple pulls out of an environmental scheme.
  • Google 'to pay' privacy penalty

    The search giant is set to pay a US agency $22.5m (£14.5m) to settle a privacy complaint according to a report.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/07/links-71012.html

SPACE WORMS LIVE LONG AND PROSPER Discovery
‘New McCarthyism’ Described by Climate Scientist Michael Mann ABC. I get so annoyed when readers insist that there is a conspiracy promoting concerns about human-induced climate change. Follow the money. Hint: it ain’t scientists who are pushing PR, and the big money isn’t behind green tech or taxes on carbon. Or go read the book Agnotology.
Great white shark sightings up on East and West Coasts: What are they after? Christian Science Monitor. Do the math. You are way way more at risk from drunk drivers than sharks.
UCLA develops world’s fastest camera to hunt down cancer in real time ExtremeTech (Chuck L). Sounds a little like Carcinoma Angels.
Clinton takes jab at China by linking political openness, prosperity in Mongolia CBS
China rebalancing, my butt MacroBusiness
Economic Slump Weakens China’s Trade Growth Associated Press
China heads for a deflationary shock Ambrose Evansp-Pritchard, Telegraph
Eurozone talks stuck on detail of bank rescue fund plan Guardian. This looks consistent with the Wolfgang Munchau piece we posted on yesterday, that there really was no deal on bank rescues (as in the vague commitment did a crappy job of papering over fundamental disagreements). But this FT story suggests not: Eurozone draws up Spanish aid blueprint. This tries to square the circle: European technocrats squabble over the spoils MacroBusiness
Liborfest!
Former Barclays boss regrets not sacking Bob Diamond 15 years ago Guardian
The BBC as Apologist for Lying about Libor William Black. It was Peston who also whipped up the furor about the call between Paul Tucker and Bob Diamond, which now looks like a very convenient red herring for Barclays
We’re powerless to get truth about bankers, says key MP Independent
Libor Scandal Threatening To Turn Companies Off Syndicated Loans Bloomberg
Rules of American justice Glenn Greenwald
Obama’s Administration Killed a 16-Year-Old American and Didn’t Say Anything About It. This Is Justice? Tom Junod, Esquire
Obama Has a Serious Tax Credibility Problem Jon Walker, Firedoglake
Maddow befuddled by snooty Romney donors: These must be leftist protesters Raw Story
Higher Political Spending by Unions Wall Street Journal. This means they are really bad at it.
Wall Street’s Captive Arbitrators Strike Again William Cohan, Bloomberg (K. Ackermann)
Major Rent Strike Against Millionaire Slumlord Catches Fire in Brooklyn Alternet (Carol B)
Tarnished CEO Dimon faces the grinder New York Post
Indentured Students Rise As Loans Corrode College Ticket Bloomberg
Consumers Credit Jumps… a Good Thing? EconomPic Data
Big Dealers Sweat as Swaps Face Reckoning Wall Street Journal
Robert Samuelson Blames the 60s Again Dean Baker
The curse of advanced economies in resolving banking crises VoxEU
* * *
Lambert here:
D – 60 and counting*
If by a “Liberal” they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people — their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, and their civil liberties — someone who believes we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our policies abroad, if that is what they mean by a “Liberal,” then I’m proud to say I’m a “Liberal.” — JFK, on accepting the New York Liberal Party nomination
Occupy. #NATGAT: “Multiple organizers told [City Paper weekly] that one member – known as “Sage” – had been accused by six different women of sexual harassment over the course of National Gathering. They said he had also been making racist, sexist comments to multiple members of the movement. He was asked to leave and at one point, Occupiers formed a barricade to keep him from entering the camp.”
AZ. ObamaCare: “If the feds can’t force Arizona to move forward with the massive Medicaid expansion, it’s a near certainty the Republican-led Legislature won’t do it for them.”
FL. Public records: “A reader did a Miami Dade County Public Records request. He had 6 queries. [The charge:] $888.00.” In what sense are these records public, then?
IA. Code enforcement: “Supporters of urban chickens say it’s time the Iowa City council allow residents to raise chickens in their backyards.”
LA. Letter to the Newhouse family: “[I]t is nearly impossible to find a kind word in these parts about your family or your plan to take away our daily newspaper” Check the signatures. … Water: “But after three decades of extensive efforts to clean it up, nitrate along the rivers is getting worse. In Hermann [Mo, in the center of the Missouri River basin], the levels have increased 75 percent since 1980, according to USGS research published last year…. And no one – at least yet – has figured out exactly why. … The pollution that creates a [6,800 square mile] dead zone [in the Gulf] 1,247 miles downstream.”
ME. ObamaCare: “ME Gov. Paul LePage has refused to give in to demands that he apologize for comparing the Internal Revenue Service to the Gestapo, but he said he never intended to insult anyone or ‘minimize’ the misdeeds carried out by Nazi Germany’s secret police force.” A non-apology apology.
MN. “A provisional ballot ain’t a vote… If you ballot was rejected for bull**** reasons, how could you appeal?”
NY. Tinpot tyrants: “The NYPD has created a “wanted” poster for a Harlem couple who film cops conducting stop-and-frisks and post the videos on YouTube — branding them “professional agitators” who portray cops in a bad light and listing their home address.” (MR) … Fracking: “In reassuring the public that shale gas development is safe and beneficial, officials within the DEC’s Mineral Resources Division have publicly denied that hydraulic fracturing uses dangerous chemicals.”
OH. Fracking: ‘[Concerned Citizens of OH:]” I don’t think people are adequately educated about the impact of this industrial process, or (know) that local zoning was totally removed from the hands of local government. I think most people are not aware of that.” (danps)
PA. Fracking: Rural counties roar ahead, suburban counties to be studied. Alrighty then. … Money: “According to new filings, Obama has collected $2.8 million from donors in Philadelphia zip codes. That’s far less than the $4 million he collected from the same area at a similar point during the 2008 campaign.”
TN. Meme watch: “He’d not heard of the Teavangelical label [coined by CBN news reader in new book] before but said that it fits. His faith shapes many of his political views.”
TX. ObamaCare: “In a move that surprised exactly no one, Rick Perry announced Monday that TX will not create a health insurance exchange nor expand Medicaid.” “[PERRY in letter to Sibelius:] I look forward to implementing health care solutions that are right for the people of TX. I urge you to support me in that effort. In the meantime, [health reform's] unsound encroachments will find no foothold here.” Nullification?! … Voting: “In TX, for example, concealed handgun licenses are an acceptable form of [voter] ID under a new law that’s yet to take effect, but student ID cards are not.”
VA. Privatization: “One of our state’s most prized assets [the Port of Virginia] is about to be sold (ok, leased for a really, really long time) to a private operator. … without any input from the public. We’ve seen this play before, most recently with the implementation of tolls on the tunnels in our area. We also are seeing it locally, as both Norfolk and Virginia Beach take on new zoning plans.” …. Privatization: “After the [single] July 17 meeting [on the Port of Virginia], panel members will be required to sign nondisclosure agreements giving them access to sensitive financial details of any proposed deals, but leaving them extremely limited as to what they could share with the public.” … Snark watch: “Rosalynn Carter:  OMG! You mean this was a political party convention here in the United States of America, in the state of Virginia? Is it really possible that a major American political party could hold contested elections in the 21st century and make this much of a mess of it? ” Super article on state party shenanigans with reform proposals.
The empire. Cartagena redux? “In pre-dawn darkness, a ­Toyota Land Cruiser skidded off a bridge in [Mali] in the spring, plunging into the Niger River. When rescuers arrived, they found the bodies of three U.S. Army commandos — alongside three dead women.”  … Charles Pierce reacts: “There is democratic logic and there is imperial logic, and they are mutually and forever exclusive. Making secret war makes war a secret only to the people footing the bills.” So, you’re voting for the emperor, then?
ObamaCare. A sober look, LA Times: “Millions of Californians will still lack insurance even after a massive coverage expansion. Medical costs and premiums are expected to keep rising, at least in the short run. And many of those who do gain coverage could have a tough time finding a doctor to treat them.” … Taxing power: ObamaCare’s mandate is neither a tax nor a penalty. It’s a “mixed exaction” (A theory of the tax power that justifies – and may have informed –Roberts’s analysis.) … The mandate: “[In MA,] some 97 percent of the taxpayers are complying with new health reform filing requirements.”
Jobs. Nate Silver: “Is this the new normal?” Simple answers to simple questions: Yes.
The trail. Money: “Ominously for the Obama re-election campaign, Romney is beginning to bring in money from small donors in substantial numbers as well as wealthy donors. His campaign said about 20% came from small donors.” Money: “The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee today asked the Federal Election Commission to investigate [Crossroads GPS, Americans for Prosperity, and 60-Plus Association,] Republican-leaning nonprofits who are spending millions on the 2012 campaigns. DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil: ‘These organizations are actually claiming that they are no more political than a church, a synagogue, or even the American Cancer Society. It is patently absurd’” (SW). The FEC is comprised of three Ds and three Rs. … Razor thin margin: “Why isn’t President Obama doing worse? The answer favored by political professionals is that Obama is playing a mediocre hand well, while his GOP rival Mitt Romney is failing to leverage his strong hand — particularly on the economy.” … Streamers: “House Ds are taking it to another level. They’re now recording video of the homes of GOP congressmen and candidates and posting the raw footage on the Internet for all to see.” How do we know it’s raw?
Robama vs. Obomney watch. Failure to communicate: “It took several weeks for Burton and Sweeney to come up with a name for [Priorities USA]. To their irritation, every slogan they considered had already been trademarked by Republicans.” “Jail the banksters!” has been trademarked by the Rs? That’s remarkable.
Romney. “The real question is when will we see Romney start to define himself on his terms? Where is the People Magazine profile? Or the Good Housekeeping interview?”
Obama. Middle class tax cuts: “The move underscored Obama’s support for raising taxes on higher incomes and his effort to cast himself as a populist.” Banksters in orange jump suits doing the perp walk; that would be populist. … Middle class tax cuts, White House communications director tweet: “[PFEIFFER]: Will the GOP join him to provide certainty for 98% of Americans?” Bizarrely out of touch. “Certainty,” sibling to the Confidence Fairy, is a corporate frame. 99% of Americans are concerned about the certainty of paying the bills this week, not something far off next April. A job helps. …. Bain flap: Press plays stenographer, gives misleading Obama claims a free pass.
* 61 days ’til the Democratic National Convention ends with som tam on the floor of the Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. JFK was elected in 1960.
* * *



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