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Opinion
Jeb Bush’s Florida Record
Dr. David S. Seres of Columbia University writes that the former Florida governor’s own record “should be of far greater concern, particularly where the right to self-determination and medical decision-making are concerned.”Travel
Walkabout: Record Summer Travel; Free Wi-Fi in Spain
A weekly capsule of travel news curated by our writers and editors.World
Axact, Fake Diploma Company, Threatens Pakistani Bloggers Who Laugh at Its Expense
The Pakistani company Axact threatened to sue a local blog, Pak Tea House, merely for rounding up Twitter reaction to an exposé.Opinion
Best Practices at Well Sites
Christine Todd Whitman, the former New Jersey governor and E.P.A. administrator, responds to a news article.U.S.
Amtrak Crash Illuminates Obstacles to Plan for Controlling Train Speeds
As most railroads expect to miss a congressional deadline for upgrades, lawmakers in Washington are now fighting — not over whether to extend the deadline, but for how long.Sports
Union and Tom Brady’s Lawyers Threaten to Challenge Suspension in Court
The players’ union said in a letter that N.F.L. Commissioner Roger Goodell cannot hear Brady’s appeal because he will be called as a witness.U.S.
Objects Hit Trains So Often There’s Term for It: Getting Rocked
Though being struck by flying objects is typically not a serious safety concern, it is a common occurrence for train crews.World
Opposition Activists in Burundi Fear Crackdown After President’s Return
Amid a failed coup attempt and armed attacks on independent radio stations, protesters fear free expression could be curtailed sharply in Burundi.Sports
Plan for Chargers’ Home
An advisory group presented a plan to finance a new $1.1 billion multipurpose stadium on the site of the team’s current home, Qualcomm Stadium.U.S.
Massachusetts Justices Clear Way for New Trials in Cases Chemist May Have Tainted
The ruling is part of an effort to untangle the mess left after the conviction of a state chemist, Annie Dookhan, whose mishandling of evidence affected as many as 40,000 cases.U.S.
Bullet Did Not Strike Windshield of Amtrak Train, Investigators Say
Federal officials said they found no evidence to confirm that a projectile broke through the window and hit the conductor of the Amtrak train that derailed in Philadelphia last week.Business Day
Regulators to Hold Hearing on Fiat Chrysler Safety Response
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is investigating 20 recalls covering more than 10 million vehicles.World
Italy Drops Some Charges in Migrant Shipwreck Case
Prosecutors dropped illegal detention charges against two men described as the navigator and an accomplice, but said they face other charges.Health
A Way to Brew Morphine Raises Concerns Over Regulation
A fermentation process that produces heroin’s raw ingredient has stirred debate over whether the drug trafficking trade could benefit more than the pharmaceutical industry.Sports
Two Share Lead at Wells Fargo
Webb Simpson chipped in twice for birdies and shot a five-under-par 67 for a share of the second-round lead with Robert Streb at the Wells Fargo Championship in Charlotte, N.C.
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W: W. Miley (3-4) L: Y. Gallardo (3-6) S: K. Uehara (10) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tex HR: L. Martin (2) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bos HR: D. Ortiz (6) M. Napoli (4) |
Technology
Google to Test Bubble-Shaped Self-Driving Cars in Silicon Valley
Tests of the cars, which look like golf carts with doors, are expected to place the search giant closer to its goal of hands-free, foot-free driving.N.Y. / Region
De Blasio Public Housing Plan to Seek City Aid and More Money From Tenants
Bill de Blasio will call for significant new financial help from the city and for squeezing more revenue out of the housing projects and their residents.Business Day
E.C.B. Said to Be Unlikely to Cut Greece Loose
Members of the central bank’s Governing Council are due to meet in Frankfurt to discuss the life support they are providing to Greek banks.Stupid Austerity Tricks
"Against willful stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain. So it’s no surprise that Simon Wren-Lewis
is having a hard time of it. Still, it’s amazing just how dependent the
pro-austerity camp has become on one dumb trick — misunderstanding, or
pretending to misunderstand, the difference between levels and rates of
change.
Take basic national income accounting (and ignore the foreign sector, for simplicity): the basic GDP identity is
GDP = C + I + G
or, if you want to look at changes,
Change in GDP = Change in C + Change in I + Change in G
If you’re trying to
understand how fiscal policies — which affect both government purchases G
and, via taxes and transfers, consumption C — move the economy, you can
tell a story either in terms of levels or in terms of changes; in the
end, it shouldn’t matter, because these stories should be consistent.
Now, the story Simon has been telling all along, and which I essentially picked up in my Guardian piece,
is that the Cameron government did a lot of fiscal tightening in its
first two years, but not much thereafter (illustrated in this case by
cyclically adjusted balances):
Furthermore, almost everyone concedes that this is in fact what happened.
And what you’d expect from this time path of policy is that the current level of GDP would still be below what it would have been otherwise, but that the negative impact on the rate of growth
of GDP would have occurred only in the first couple of years, not
thereafter; hence the pickup in growth since 2013 isn’t inconsistent
with the view that austerity is a drag on the economy. I don’t think
this is a hard point; surely it’s not a point anyone who writes
regularly on economics should have trouble getting straight.
Yet what we get over
and over are pieces that get this simple point wrong. Austerity critics
say that the pace of fiscal tightening slowed after 2012 — aha, you’re
claiming that austerity was reversed, which it wasn’t! You said that
cutting spending depresses the economy relative to where it would have
been otherwise — aha, you’re all wrong, because the economy started
growing again in 2013!
This is, not to put
too fine a point on it, stupid — and it has to be willfully stupid,
because the people writing such stuff have to know better.
I’m actually used to
such things; people are constantly pulling phrases out of stuff I’ve
written, claiming that I was saying something I wasn’t. The way to
assess such claims is to look at the overall shape of the argument I was
making. If, for example, I was writing many pieces about the dangers of
a slow, jobless recovery, then no, I wasn’t endorsing the Obama
administration’s forecast of a V-shaped recovery, even if you can find a
pull-quote that, taken out of context, might be read to say that; and
so on.
Anyway, what you
really learn from this “debate” is how weak one side really is. If you
can’t make your argument without messing up levels versus changes and
deliberately misreading simple statements, you must not have much of a
case."
If everyone stays calm there will be a deal.
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