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World
Iran Extends Imprisonment of Washington Post Reporter
Jason Rezaian, The Post’s Tehran correspondent who was detained in July without explanation, now faces at least two more months in prison, his brother said.Automobiles
Wheelies: The Plug-in Diesel Audi Edition
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While debates around home cooking often center on health, are they about morality as well?U.S.
Senate Panel Faces New Obstacle to Release of Torture Report
Secretary of State John Kerry warned Senator Dianne Feinstein that the release of the long-delayed review could ignite unrest in the Middle East and endanger hostages.Automobiles
Weekend Auto Calendar: Auctions Feature Gleaming Classics and Future Rat Rods
Mecum Auctions to sell 750 cars in Kansas City; Virginia auction features rough classics; Road Atlanta hosts amateur racing.N.Y. / Region
New York City Council Explores the Woes of Hailing a Taxi
Council members discussed a range of complaints prompted by smartphone-based car-hire services such as Uber and Lyft as well as yellow cabs.World
Vatican Finds Stash of Money ‘Tucked Away’
The Vatican’s chief financial official said Thursday that the money had been left out of the church’s main balance sheets.Health
Deadlier Flu Season Is Possible, C.D.C. Says
The flu vaccine is a relatively poor match to a new virus that is currently circulating, health officials said.The Upshot
Falling Oil Prices Create a Central Banking Conundrum
One result is to drive down inflation worldwide, at a time when inflation is already lower than central bankers consider ideal.A Note on Oil Prices and the Economy
I
may be doing some media where people will ask me about what the oil
plunge means for the US economy, so I thought I’d spend a bit of time
figuring out what if anything I might say that’s interesting. And it
does seem to me that there’s a bit more to the story than a casual pass
might suggest.
The big news prior to
the plunge was, of course, fracking and all that, which has abruptly
reversed the long slide in domestic production:
You might think that
this surge in production, by reducing imports, has left the US
relatively insulated from oil shocks. But we do need to remember that on
the eve of the latest plunge real oil prices were very high by
historical standards, so that oil imports as a share of GDP remained
quite high — in fact, early OPEC high:
So the economic impact
might be bigger than you think. But shale has in some important ways
arguably changed the nature of that impact.
Because we once again
have a significant sized domestic oil industry, falling prices now
create losers as well as winners within the US. The gains from falling
prices exceed the losses, and if the marginal propensity to spend is
similar that should tell the tale for aggregate demand. In fact, in the
old days when domestic oil largely meant Texas billionaires and all
that, it was reasonable to argue that the internal redistribution
further increased demand when oil fell.
But fracking (which I
really wish WordPress would stop correcting to “tracking”) means that
some of the producers are very different; and among other things,
they’re engaged in a lot of investment spending. So you could make the
case that falling oil is less expansionary than it used to be, and even,
possibly, that it’s contractionary.
This is just a, um, crude first pass. But there may be more here than the pure terms of trade effect."
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