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World
Ebola Reaches Capital of Guinea, Stirring Fears
With 13 Ebola cases in Conakry, Guinea’s densely populated capital, residents are on edge, with some carrying bottles of bleach and pharmacies selling out of hand sanitizer.
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N.Y. / Region
Rivals for New York Casino Licenses Must Pay Millions to Play
It will take a fortune just to open the doors of a full-scale casino resort in New York, starting with a $1 million nonrefundable application fee.
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World
Religious Tensions Cloud Myanmar Census
The nationwide count has been criticized because the government has denied members of a long-persecuted Muslim minority the right to identify themselves as Rohingya.
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Automobiles
A Few Auto Industry April Fools’ Day Pranks
Every April 1, automakers and automotive publications crank out a few silly jokes and pranks in celebration of the world’s strangest celebration.
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Opinion
Antibiotic Use, and Abuse, on the Farms
The F.D.A.’s efforts to curb the overuse of antibiotics in animal feed is off to a good start.
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Dining & Wine
Tavern on the Green Accepting Reservations
After two years of renovations, Tavern on the Green in Central Park will open for dinner on April 24.
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Business Day
European Finance Ministers Approve New Loans for Greece
Pointing to signs that Greece is emerging from its economic crisis, euro zone finance ministers approved the release of 8.3 billion euros in rescue loans.Lowflation and the Two Zeroes
Via the always invaluable Mark Thoma, the IMF blog — yes, the IMF has in effect become an econblogger — has a terrific piece on the problem with low inflation in Europe.
It’s the perfect antidote to the do-nothing voices insisting that
there’s no problem, because we don’t see actual deflation yet.
Part of the IMF analysis concerns debt
dynamics. They don’t put it quite this way, but I’d say that to have
debt deflation — in which falling prices due to a weak economy increase
the real burden of debt, which depresses the economy further, and so on —
you don’t need to have literal deflation. The process begins as soon as
you have lower inflation than expected when interest rates were set.
It’s also noteworthy that inflation rates in the highly indebted
countries are all well below the eurozone average (pdf), with actual deflation in Greece and near-deflation in the rest. So the debt deflation spiral is in fact well underway.
Beyond that, the trouble with low inflation is that it exacerbates the problem posed by the two zeroes — the impossibility of cutting interest rates below zero and the great difficulty of cutting nominal wages.
Is ECB policy constrained by the zero lower
bound? You could argue that it isn’t, since it could cut a bit further
than it has but hasn’t. I’d argue, however, that if nominal interest
rates were much higher — say, 4 percent — but the overall euro macro
situation were what it is, with inflation clearly below target and
unemployment very high, the ECB wouldn’t (and certainly shouldn’t)
hesitate at all about cutting rates substantially. It’s only the fact
that zero is already so close that makes cutting rates seem like a big
deal, an admission that things are looking dangerous (which they are).
Meanwhile, the zero on wages is hugely
important now. The fundamental issue here is that Spain (and other
debtors) needs to reduce its wages relative to Germany, reversing the
runup in relative wages during the bubble years. The argument some of us have been making
for a long time is that it’s vastly easier if this adjustment takes
place via rising German wages rather than falling Spanish wages — partly
because of the debt dynamics, but also and crucially because it’s very
hard to cut nominal wages.
What would you look for if downward nominal
wage rigidity were a seriously binding constraint? A spike in the
distribution of actual wage changes at zero. And sure enough:
International Monetary Fund
To be technical about it: Yowza. This is prima facie evidence that excessively low European inflation is already a huge problem.
The point is that there is no red line at
zero inflation; excessively low inflation is still a very severe
problem, especially given the European situation, even if the number is
positive.
So when people warn about Europe’s potential Japanification,
they’re way behind the curve. Europe is already experiencing all the
woes one associates with deflation, even though it’s only low inflation
so far; and the human and social costs are, of course, far worse than
Japan ever experienced.
This need not lead to a breakup of the euro:
Pessimists on that front, me very much included, misjudged the strength
of European elites’ commitment to the project. But the euro might yet
survive — and be a continuing disaster."
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Opinion
Families and College Costs
Catharine B. Hill, the president of Vassar College, responds to an Op-Ed article.
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World
Journalists Held by Militants in Syria Reunite With Family
Javier Espinosa and Ricardo García Vilanova arrived in Madrid a day after Mr. Espinosa called his newspaper to say they had been handed over to Turkish soldiers.Turkey Downs Warplane From Syria After Warning
ANKARA, Turkey — Turkish fighter jets shot down a Syrian warplane on Sunday after it violated Turkish airspace, Turkey's prime minister said, ...March 23, 2014 - - World - article - Print Headline: "Turkey Downs Warplane From Syria After Warning"
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Business Day
Fake Meats, Finally, Taste Like Chicken
Demand is growing from younger consumers seeking a more healthful or more ethical diet, but innovation is pushed by investors who see a potential solution to big problems.
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U.S.
Chicago Mayor Seeks Alterations to Repair Badly Underfunded Pension Plan
Rahm Emanuel wants to raise property taxes and require some city workers and retirees to contribute more for their retirement benefits to repair a pension system at risk of insolvency.
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N.Y. / Region
Bratton and Sharpton Discuss Profiling Issue
Police Commissioner William J. Bratton met with the Rev. Al Sharpton to talk about profiling by police in retail stores, which has resulted in several lawsuits by black shoppers.
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U.S.
Letter Tells of U.S. Searches for Emails and Calls
The letter, from the director of national intelligence to a senator, underscored that such activity was not just theoretical.
14
Technology
Apple and Samsung Reprise Patent Fight (With Google a Shadow Presence)
The lawsuit is Apple’s second big patent action against Samsung Electronics, and the proceedings took on an air of something of a reunion bringing together a vastly dysfunctional family.
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U.S.
Bishops Follow Pope’s Example: Opulence Is Out
Backlash to a plan by Archbishop Wilton D. Gregory of Atlanta to build a large mansion is the latest in a series of lay uprisings since Pope Francis chose to live in a modest residence.
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U.S.
Airline Blames Bad Software in San Francisco Crash
The Korean carrier Asiana told the National Transportation Safety Board that inconsistencies with the aircraft’s automation logic were also to blame for the crash.
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N.Y. / Region
Holder, in New York City, Calls Terror Trials Safe
Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. said that last week’s conviction of Sulaiman Abu Ghaith had “proven beyond any doubt” that terrorism trials can “safely occur” in New York City.
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Opinion
Measuring the Success of Health Reform
The effects won’t be known for years, but Democrats will need to remind voters that many millions are already benefiting from the Affordable Care Act.More Good Obamacare News
Until just the other day, Obamacare was a
total disaster; no way would it meet its first-year enrollment targets,
or come anywhere close.
Now the opponents have retreated to their
next line of defense: OK, people are signing up, but only because their
existing policies were cancelled, so the program isn’t actually reducing
the number of uninsured.
Oops:
Furthermore:
These early estimates understate the full effects of the Affordable Care Act on the uninsured for two major reasons. First, the survey does not capture the enrollment surge that occurred at the end of the open enrollment period, because 80 percent of the responses to the March 2014 HRMS were provided by March 6, 2014. Second, these estimates do not reflect the effects of some important ACA provisions (such as the ability to keep dependents on health plans until age 26 and early state Medicaid expansions) that were implemented before 2013.
Remember, this is just the first year. It has
been assumed all along that it would take several years for the word to
spread, and the law to have its full effect."
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Job Market
For a Cattle Rancher, a Legacy on the Range
Ranching isn’t about living for the present, says Manny Encinias of Clayton, N.M. Rather, “our decisions are based on leaving a legacy for our kids and our grandkids.”
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World
Israel: Airstrikes in Gaza Follow Militants’ Rocket Attacks
Israeli military aircraft carried out multiple airstrikes in the Gaza Strip early Friday, the Israeli military and Palestinian officials said, after militants fired four rockets into southern Israel late Thursday.
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Opinion
Trade Controls on Ivory
The Fish and Wildlife Service takes issue with an Op-Ed article, “The Wrong Way to Protect Elephants.”
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In Our Pages: March 31
Highlights from the International Herald Tribune archives: A steamer cut in two after a collision at sea in 1889, and an associate of the heavyweight boxer Sonny Liston denies fronting for criminals in 1964.
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Opinion
A Christie Life Primer
Let’s discuss the lessons learned from the latest on the bridge-traffic-jam episode.
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U.S.
Texas: Posthumous Pardon Is Denied for Man Executed in 3 Deaths
The Board of Pardons and Paroles denied the request for Cameron Todd Willingham, who was executed in 2004 after being convicted of setting his house on fire and killing his three daughters.
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N.Y. / Region
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