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Ayat Basma
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Does IMF Stand for Impressive Macroeconomic Flexibility?
So the IMF is holding a meeting on rethinking macroeconomic policy (I was invited but couldn’t make the timing work.) And the Fund’s chief economist has already made it clear that he’s open to some serious revision of the prevailing paradigm.
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/04/12/banco-espirito-santo-a-poruguese-bank-on-its-last-legs-and-a-financial-times-living-on-its-laurels-2/
"Banco Espirito Santo: a Portuguese bank on its last legs.
And a Financial Times living on its laurels.
Portugal’s Banco Espirito Santo shares plummeted by 15% after it announced plans to raise €1B in capital through a rights issue.
The offering price is set at a 66% discount to the closing price yesterday [Wednesday].
That is a very desperate bank.
But this is what the FT wrote six days ago:
‘As of Apr 06, 2012, the consensus forecast amongst 14 polled investment analysts covering Banco Espirito Santo SA advises that the company will outperform the market.’
Hmm. Another reason why I won’t be renewing my FT subscription this year. Note the pompous proclamation one gets when quoting from FT ‘analyses’:
‘High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail.’Oooooooh.What a joke."http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/12/more-on-safe-assets/http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/debt_crisis/More On Safe Assets
So Brad and I are having an interesting discussion — not sure if it rises to the level of a debate — about whether we’re really suffering from a shortage of safe assets. Two points.
First, why look at equity valuations? Why not look at risky bonds? What you see there is a definite Bagehot moment in 2008-2009, aka the Oh-God-we’re-all-gonna-die period, but not thereafter:
(I used junk bonds here, but the same pattern shows across the board).
Second, there’s the question of whether a simple expectations-of-low-short-term rates story can explain low long-term rates. Well, here’s an exercise: take the CBO baseline forecast for unemployment and inflation. No claims here that CBO has special wisdom, but it’s an example of what reasonable, middle-of-the-road people might expect. Take a simple estimated Taylor rule, and assume that actual rates are the maximum of the Taylor number and zero. Here’s what you get:
Low rates for a long, long time, and even in the longer run still fairly low.
Now crank up the spreadsheet and ask what 10-year rate would be appropriate in a present value sense, ignoring risk and uncertainty and all that. The answer is .. . 1.79 percent.
This doesn’t show that current rates are right, but it shows that they aren’t unreasonable given the expectation of a weak recovery. You don’t need the safe asset shortage story.
Just to be clear, I’m not ideologically opposed to the safe asset thing. I just wonder whether we aren’t violating Occam’s razor, adding stuff that the story doesn’t need.
PS: I meant to add that Brad’s Bagehot paper (pdf) is fantastic, although I think the Bagehot moment is behind us."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/
IMF: Europe still poses an economic risk
IMF managing director Christine Lagarde says the US may be "turning a corner," but Europe's debt still poses a risk to the global economy.
12 Apr 2012| 1 CommentSpanish bailout 'impossible' for eurozone, says Rajoy
The eurozone is not equipped to bail out Spain, the country's prime minister Mariano Rajoy has admitted, as global traders continued to punish the nation's stocks and bonds.
12 Apr 2012| 92 CommentsCountries face spike in borrowing costs, warns OECD
Governments face a dangerous spike in borrowing costs in the coming years because rates charged are being kept artificially low while crisis measures are in place, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned.
12 Apr 2012| CommentOECD's Padoan warns of 'Spanish contagion' risk for Italy
Italy's borrowing costs could be hit by "Spanish contagion" even though investors know the differences between Italy and Spain, the OECD's chief economist Piercarlo Padoan said in an interview on Thursday.
12 Apr 2012| 2 CommentsOECD: Countries must do more to lower debt
Countries must face the prospect of austerity for decades to come to bring the debt burden down and protect against future shocks, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has warned.
12 Apr 2012| 81 CommentsBlacks drags down JD Sports' profits
Business Bullet: Uk Trade deficit; JD Sports; Aggreko; Italian debt auction
12 Apr 2012| CommentWorld Bank cuts China growth forecast to 8.2pc
The World Bank cut its forecast for growth in China this year to 8.2pc on Thursday from 8.4pc previously, reinforcing the view that the world's second largest economy is set for its slowest annual growth in a decade.
12 Apr 2012| 2 CommentsECB may act to bring down Spanish borrowing costs
The European Central Bank may intervene to pull down Madrid's borrowing costs as prime minister Mariano Rajoy warned that debt had created a "vicious circle that strangles Spain".
11 Apr 2012| 61 CommentsEurope's banks beached as ECB stimulus runs dry
The European Central Bank's €1 trillion (£824bn) lending spree over the winter has stored up a host of fresh problems, leaving parts of the banking system more vulnerable than before as the short-term "sugar rush" nears exhaustion.
11 Apr 2012| 187 CommentsThere seems to be nothing broken. Just a bad scare so far.The New York markets closed happy.
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johntilak
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Osama bin Laden Was the Most Wanted Face of Terrorism
“NYT's obit - http://nyti.ms/iW9IiS”
Calling off the hunt would have been seen as surrender.
Pakistan is possibly facing reality. The trucks are moving again.
Then again it may be just allowing us to gracefully retreat.
We will watch results.
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walidbey
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Flying Blind
“Flying Blind - http://nyti.ms/9URfv0 LORDS OF FINANCE The Bankers Who Broke the World By Liaquat Ahamed Illustrated. 564 pp. The Penguin Press. $32.95 ”This is the story of the Great Depression I learned as a child.It is not the one I have been learning by reading Paul Krugman.It is not the history that the economist students of the period learn.
Try this one:http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/the-bruning-thing/
"The Brüning Thing
Joe Weisenthal tells us about an analyst willing to risk a Godwin’s Law citation; Dylan Grice of SocGen points out that it was the deflationary policies of 1930-32, not the inflation of 1923, that brought you-know-who to power.
Indeed. When we hear assertions that Germans are deeply hostile to loose money because of their historical memories, I always wonder why those memories are so selective. Why is 1923 seared into collective memory, while the Brüning disaster has apparently gone down the memory hole?
This is important — and there’s not much time to get the record straight."
I searched German deflation on Krugman's blog.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Br%C3%BCning,_Heinrich
As I read the Wiki these events did not make the popular press.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynes
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economic_Consequences_of_the_Peace
"The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919) is a book written and published by John Maynard Keynes. Keynes attended the Versailles Conference as a delegate of the British Treasury and argued for a much more generous peace. It was a bestseller throughout the world and was critical in establishing a general opinion that the Versailles Treaty was a "Carthaginian peace". It helped to consolidate American public opinion against the treaty and involvement in the League of Nations. The perception by much of the British public that Germany had been treated unfairly in turn was a crucial factor in public support for appeasement. The success of the book established Keynes' reputation as a leading economist especially on the left. When Keynes was a key player in establishing the Bretton Woods system in 1944, he remembered the lessons from Versailles as well as the Great Depression. The Marshall Plan after Second World War is a similar system to that proposed by Keynes in The Economic Consequences of the Peace."None of this is secret. None of it was discussed in the Soviet Zone.
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Washington Post Wins Four Pulitzers, New York Times Gets Three
“Washington Post Wins Four Pulitzers, New York Times Gets Three - http://nyti.ms/aXWone Bizim pulitzer ödülümüz var mı ?”I am not going to worry about it.
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anissahelou
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Yowie: Will This Start-Up Survive?
“Yowie: Will This Start-Up Survive? - http://nyti.ms/oRKyVG”I doubt that it will.I have gone to several Science Fiction Conventions.Thirty years ago Fan Feedback to the authors was an attempted feature.It did not work well.The writers were much more interested in working out their own ideas. Actors in dramatized stories had little to contribute.Panel discussions work best as set pieces arranged by the panel.The arrangement may be done by mail or email well before the doors open. One on one discussions do happen on an ad hoc basis.
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Anthony De Rosa
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Some Start-Ups Pique Interest by Invitation Only
These days it can be hard for a new Web site to attract attention. So many companies have tried creating a sense of exclusivity.
"“Invites were on and off at various times,” Mr. Horowitz said. “We were letting people trickle in and throttled the limit based on capacity.”
At this point the service is far from an exclusive club. Larry Page, chief executive of Google, said on Thursday that more than 10 million people had joined and were sharing a billion items a day.
Mr. Horowitz acknowledged that early traction did not guarantee long-term success. What matters, he said, “is to transcend that early adopter crowd and learn how the late adopters will use your system.”"
Let us establish eMail contact.
Google plus does not make me happy.
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skaramist
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Arabs Will Be Free
“inchallah -- Arabs Will Be Free - http://nyti.ms/g9z9Pk”This is a prayer and not an analysis.Islam is a static religion.There is no path to civil legitimacy but the imprimatur of the religious authority.We have observed that this form is a disaster.
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The Cartoonist’s Goal
By this,
it is to get the words and the pictures to interact to form a designed experience.
The silent film and the painting are also designed experiences but intended to be wordless as is most architecture.
TimesPeople recommended a video:
Apr 11, 2012
James Nares at Work
More silent image.
Text is about as close as we get to just words.
Performance adds a voice to the words.
It can add some of image. Costume and makeup are powerful in comparison to set.
Film with spoken words empowers both the words and the image.
The graphic novel is image with text.
It loses the performance of the words.
The music in the words.
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Avital
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Japanese Nationalists Aim to Block Screenings of ‘The Cove’
“Japanese Nationalists Aim to Block Screenings of ‘The Cove’ - http://nyti.ms/aCcVNc”This reporter may not remember.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimata_Disease"
Minamata disease (水俣病 Minamata-byō), sometimes referred to as Chisso-Minamata disease (チッソ水俣病 Chisso-Minamata-byō), is a neurological syndrome caused by severe mercury poisoning. Symptoms include ataxia, numbness in the hands and feet, general muscle weakness, narrowing of the field of vision and damage to hearing and speech. In extreme cases, insanity, paralysis, coma, and death follow within weeks of the onset of symptoms. A congenital form of the disease can also affect foetuses in the womb.Minamata disease Classification and external resources
The crippled hand of a Minamata disease victimICD-10 T56.1 ICD-9 985.0 MedlinePlus 001651
Minamata disease was first discovered in Minamata city in Kumamoto prefecture, Japan, in 1956. It was caused by the release of methylmercury in the industrial wastewater from the Chisso Corporation's chemical factory, which continued from 1932 to 1968. This highly toxic chemical bioaccumulated in shellfish and fish in Minamata Bay and the Shiranui Sea, which when eaten by the local populace resulted in mercury poisoning. While cat, dog, pig, and human deaths continued over more than 30 years, the government and company did little to prevent the pollution.
As of March 2001, 2,265 victims had been officially recognised (1,784 of whom had died)[1] and over 10,000 had received financial compensation from Chisso.[2] By 2004, Chisso Corporation had paid $86 million in compensation, and in the same year was ordered to clean up its contamination.[3] On March 29, 2010, a settlement was reached to compensate as-yet uncertified victims.[4]
A second outbreak of Minamata disease occurred in Niigata Prefecture in 1965. Both the original Minamata disease and Niigata Minamata disease are considered two of the Four Big Pollution Diseases of Japan."
The film would seem to be a natural at Netflix.
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My (Legal) Editor's Dream
“incredible!! great reminder of what good journalism can do. vargas story is debate changing for immigration http://nyti.ms/jGxQux”
Jose Antonio Vargas has not been deported.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jose_Antonio_Vargas
30 day times search:How an Egyptian Revolution Began on Facebook
How an Egyptian Google executive’s Facebook page helped spark a movement.February 19, 2012The man is working.
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