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Ian Welsh2 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 18, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 18, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 18, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*Economics as cultural warfare*
*Our Ancestors Thought We’d Build an Economic Paradise. Instead We Got
2022 *
Brad DeLong [Time, via Naked Capitalism 9-11-2022]
Adapted from DeLong’s new book, Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic
History of the Twentieth Century, published by Basic Books….
…the first half of the Big Story of twentieth-century economic history is a
triumphant one. Friedrich von Hayek was a genius. He saw clearly that the
market e... read more
mostly noise.
2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent comments.
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Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Understanding and Surviving the Post-Prosperity Era[image: Understanding and Surviving the Post-Prosperity Era]
I don’t usually write about my personal life much, but today will be an
exception.
The other day I had to go the hospital, to a cancer clinic (nothing to
sweat, I have the type of cancer with a 98% survival rate) and the clinic I
was at had only one doctor. It normally has three or four. I asked the
nurse, and she told me that the others were out with Covid.
Emergency departments across Canada are having shut-downs because they
don’t have enough nurses. Covid, either temporary, or nurses having quit
because they can’t ta... read more
Ian Welsh is sick and depressed.
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Ian Welsh6 days ago
Lazy V.S. Uninterested & Quiet Quitting[image: Lazy V.S. Uninterested & Quiet Quitting]
Being lazy and being uninterested are two different things. When I was a
kid I was usually reluctant to do most farm work, because it was boring,
but would go for 10 miles runs or long runs, or read multiple books in a
day (which many people who love farm work would hate doing.)
Most of what passes for lazy is uninterested in drag.
The old maxim: “work is what you wouldn’t do for free” is part of it, but
there are four types of activities on this spectrum.
1. “I enjoy doing it for itself and would do it even if I wasn’t getting
... read more
A consideration of design failure.
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Ian Welsh1 week ago
Solutions: Cash and Cashlessness[image: Solutions: Cash and Cashlessness]
Recently I saw the observation that you can track gentrification by the
spread of shops that won’t take cash.
This is a problem because a lot of people don’t have credit or debit cards,
even still. It’s easy to wind up “unbanked”. It’s also the case that
cashless societies have walked a fair way down the authoritarian path.
The solution is simple enough:
1. make it illegal for retail stores to refuse cash.
2. Create a national “cash card”, similar to gift cards, and mandate
that it must be accepted by any retailer, offline or onli... read more
Thumb twiddling.
6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
China "To Those Who Have Everything”[image: China]
This is why you don’t give away your manufacturing base. China is “gaining
market share in both low and hi-tech sectors.” It is “now a more important
international supplier than Germany, the U.S. and Japan combined.” China’s
share of manufacturing exports grew from 17% in the 2017 to 21% in 2021.
The US recently put a ban on sending advanced AI chips to China, and the
CHIPS act forbids any company which takes money from setting up new fabs in
China, but it isn’t going to matter. Just as China jumped two chip
generations (from 11 to 7nm) far faster than any western e... read more
Intellectual property is not an effective strategy for maintaining industrial dominance.
7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 11, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 11, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 11, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*Chile rejects new “progressive” constitution*
*Chile votes overwhelmingly to reject new, progressive constitution *
Guardian, via Naked Capitalism 9-6-2022]
*Chilean voters resoundingly reject a new ‘ecological’ constitution *
[Science, via Naked Capitalism 9-8-2022]
*Lambert Strether: Here is the very first sentence from WaPo’s Editorial
Board, urging rejection. “Lithium is a key input in batteries that run
millions of laptops and upon whi... read more
Socialists imagine money as magic.
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Ian Welsh1 week ago
Putin’s Personal Interests and the Interests of Russia Have Diverged & The Divergence Is Running The Ukraine War[image: Putin’s Personal Interests and the Interests of Russia Have
Diverged & The Divergence Is Running The Ukraine War]
So, Ukraine has had its second significant success in the war, launching a
successful counter-offensive which took the important logistical center
Izyum. The counter-offensive worked because the Russians didn’t have enough
troops defending AND didn’t have reserves for a counter-attack (which could
have turned the Ukrainian attack into a fiasco.) The Ukrainian attack was
well-telegraphed in advance, and there are very consistent reports of there
being a LOT of fo... read more
If the analysis is good Putin is in trouble.
The call up is failing and the border-guards are not helping.
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Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
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Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Life & Death Of Queen Elizabeth II[image: The Life & Death Of Queen Elizabeth II]
Queen Elizabeth II in 1959
I was born in 68, and I remember the middle aged Elizabeth and the era
before the Commonwealth became meaningless. There was a post-war world
where people traveled freely & often between the ex-Empire nations and
where economic ties between them and Britain were still primary. It came to
an end when Britain went into a financial crisis so serious it required IMF
intervention, and then joined the EU to get a real bailout. Once Britain
was in the EU, its focus became European, not ex-Imperial.
It was, in a wa... read more
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magna_Carta
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regicide#Britain
Charity comes from the crown.
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Ian Welsh1 week ago
We Could See The First "Flood” In A Few Years[image: We Could See The First]
Oceanographers call them marine inundation events. We’ve been trained, with
climate change predictions, to think that change will be gradual, but
recent events like the drying up of rivers and massive forest fires have
shown us that when certain break points are reached, climate changes
radically.
This is also going to be true for floods or marine inundation events, and
like rivers drying up, they’re going to start sooner than most people
believe.
This makes the ice shelves on Thwaites and Pine Island more sensitive to
extreme climate change in the... read more
The flooding will probably be slow.
12
Ian Welsh1 week ago
When Is the Next Oil Driven Inflation Spike In the US? December to March.[image: When Is the Next Oil Driven Inflation Spike In the US? December to
March.]
Recently read a smart lad who noted a few simple things:
1. Biden’s been releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
2. The SPR has basically two types of oil: sour and sweet.
3. Biden has been releasing almost all sour since that’s what most US
refineries need.
4. At the current rate of release, the SPR runs out of sour crude to
release around March.
A Bloomberg article from June noted the same issue (just prior to Joe’s
begging visit to Saudi Arabia.)
OilX, a con... read more
Oil s in surplus. The retail price will be arbitrary.
It will be regulated by photovoltaic power.
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Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
The Egalitarian Rift Which Doomed The New Chilean Constitution[image: The Egalitarian Rift Which Doomed The New Chilean Constitution]
So, Chile wound up rejecting a new left wing constitution, and by a
significant margin: about 2:1. This is interesting, because Chileans also
wanted the old constitution replaced at about the same ratio.
Apparently a big issue was that indigenous people were given rights and
status and that struck many as wrong.
It’s easy to see this as simple racism and colonialism, and no doubt that
motivated many, but there’s something important here that should be teased
apart because it’s important far beyond Chile.
Egali... read more
The Chilean elite is aristocratic.
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
The Delusional Dishonesty of the G7 Russian Oil Price Cap[image: The Delusional Dishonesty of the G7 Russian Oil Price Cap]
So…
Members of the G7 have agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil in a bid
to hit Moscow’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine.
Finance ministers said the cap on crude oil and petroleum products would
also help reduce global energy prices. The cap will be set at a level based
on a range of technical inputs.
“We will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes,” the G7
said.
Russia said it would stop selling oil to countries that imposed price caps.
Well, so the price cap is effectively a “we won’... read more
Russia need not sell fossil carbon.
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Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 4, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 4, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 4, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*Strategic Political Economy*
*US Life Expectancy Continues To Plunge Below China’s*
[ZeroHedge, 9-1-2022]
Life expectancy in the US has fallen for the second consecutive year as
Covid-19 and overdoses increased mortality rates. An empire’s death may
start with its people, and as the world shifts, China, an emerging power,
has a life expectancy that is above the US and widening.
According to new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Preventi... read more
Distractions.
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn
read more
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
17
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Mini Electronic Vacations[image: Mini Electronic Vacations]
All right, this off-topic and not the sort of thing I usually write, but
may be of use to some people.
Oddly despite being “very online” I’m sort of a luddite about certain
things. I didn’t have a smart phone till 2015 (and at the time had no cell
phone). A friend gave me my first one, and my second is a very nice hand-me
down Pixel 4 from another friend.
As a rule I don’t take my phone with me when I go out. I get buy on cards.
Of course, sometimes I need it, especially when traveling, but otherwise,
it’s not on me.
I do this because I want per... read more
A good idea.
18
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Ontario’s Mass Murdering "Top Doctor”[image: Ontario’s Mass Murdering]
I don’t consider this hyperbole:
Ontario's top doctor says people who test positive for COVID-19 no longer
have to isolate for five days but should stay home until their fever clears
and their symptoms have improved for at least 24 hours.
https://t.co/QntmqPjHcb
— Toronto Star (@TorontoStar) August 31, 2022
Remember that ever since school openings, school infection rates have
spiked before general community rates. Schools, as anyone who is a parent
or was a child should know, are cesspools of infection even in good times.
Kids get sick, pass it a... read more
Get the current booster.
19
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Sweden’s Relative Performance In Covid[image: Sweden’s Relative Performance In Covid]
Sweden famously chose a herd immunity policy during Covid and deliberately
withheld life-saving support from seniors, giving them morphine instead of
oxygen when they had plenty of oxygen. It wasn’t triage, it was murder.
There are many claims that they did well due to their policy. Did they?
Let’s take per-capita deaths as our proxy. Sweden(196.15) did do better
than the US (316.83) and the UK ( 302.59) in deaths per 100,000 population.
However, they did worse than all their sister-Scandinavian states: Norway (
72.92) Denmark (118.93)... read more
Sweden guessed wrong on Covid-19.
Covid can reinfect victims rendering heard immunity null.
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Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Destruction of the Humanities & Social Sciences and Societal Mis-allocation of Resources[image: Destruction of the Humanities & Social Sciences and Societal
Mis-allocation of Resources]
Over the last couple decades there has been the rise of STEM () and the
decline of the humanities and social sciences. Students want to study
engineering, programming, science and so on because that’s where the good
jobs are, student debt levels are obscene and there has been a social
movement towards the glorification of the sciences.
From the Atlantic
All the good, right? Science and engineering have given us TVs, running
water, power and miniature pocket computers which can make ph... read more
Political questions are not sufficiently debated.
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