Wednesday, July 3, 2019

11:50, , 7/2/19

I have to go to cambridge now.


1

Bernie Sanders Raises $18 Million in 3 Months, Trailing Buttigieg

Thomas Kaplan at NYT > Politics - 15 minutes ago
Mr. Sanders’s fund-raising total for the second quarter of 2019 trailed that of Pete Buttigieg, but it is still likely to be among the largest in the field.
Bernie deserves to be at the convention.
2 

Nike Pulls ‘Betsy Ross Flag’ Sneaker After Criticism of Slavery-Era Imagery

Sandra E. Garcia and Niraj Chokshi at NYT > Politics - 15 minutes ago
The decision, which reportedly came after Colin Kaepernick pressed Nike not to release the shoe, ignited a backlash from conservatives.
Nike is excessively tender.

3 

Trump in Asia: ‘We’re the Hottest Show in Town’

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 15 minutes ago
The president at times stretched, ignored or made up facts, but in Japan and North and South Korea, he pursued an agenda of breathtaking ambition.

Hong Kong has my attention

4. 

CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.6% Year-over-year in May

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago
Notes: *This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for May*. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for April. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: U.S. Home Price Insights Through May 2019 with Forecasts from June 2019 Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.6% in May 2019 compared with May 2018 and increased month over month by 0.9% in May 2019 compared with April 2019 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the... more » 

Noise. 

5

Cory Booker Proposes Drastic Changes to Immigration Detention System

Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Mr. Booker’s plan would create new standards for civil detentions and phase out contracts with private prisons through a sweeping executive order.

This is minimal.

Detention should end.

6 

Trump and R.N.C. Raised $105 Million in 2nd Quarter, Outdoing Obama

Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The figure reported by the president’s campaign and the Republican National Committee dwarfed President Barack Obama’s fund-raising during the same period in 2011.

Obama is not running.

7 

To Evade Sanctions on Iran, Ships Vanish in Plain Sight

Michael Forsythe and Ronen Bergman at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
Empty tankers, arriving in the Strait of Hormuz, suddenly stop reporting their whereabouts. When they re-emerge on the grid, their tanks appear full.

After Tom Sawyer"lets not and say we did."

8 

No One Picks Up the Phone, but Are Online Polls the Answer?

Nate Cohn at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
There’s little transparency and not much evidence to demonstrate the effectiveness of their approach.

Only honest numbers need apply.

9 

‘It Feels Like a Jail’: Lawmakers Criticize Migrant Holding Sites on Border

Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 10 hours ago
Members of Congress, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Joseph P. Kennedy III and Veronica Escobar, visited the facilities in Texas.

Concentration camps feel like prison is a tautology.

10 

On Politics: Pete Buttigieg’s Big 2nd Quarter

NYT > Politics - 10 hours ago
He raised $24.8 million over the past 3 months, his campaign said, likely to be among the largest disclosed by any candidate this quarter.

Trump is lying some more.

11 

Man Is Charged in Twitter Threat to Lynch Muslim Lawyer

Jacey Fortin at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
A warrant has been issued for the arrest of Joseph Cecil Vandevere, 52. He is accused of threatening a man who is now running for office in Virginia.

The charge is a freedom of speech violation.
Publishing his name and address is enough.

12 

Trump in Asia: ‘We’re the Hottest Show in Town’

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
The president at times stretched, ignored or made up facts, but in Japan and North and South Korea, he pursued an agenda of breathtaking ambition.

Under trumping again.
He is a distraction.

13 

Mercedes Schlapp Leaving White House Press Office to Join Trump Campaign

Maggie Haberman and Annie Karni at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
Ms. Schlapp’s departure, which was expected as part of a press office shuffle, makes her the latest White House official to find a soft landing in the campaign or an outside group.

Civilians get little respect from the Paparazzi.

14 

Democrats Angered by HUD’s Hiring of Trump Aide Who Quit After Racist Posts

Lola Fadulu and Glenn Thrush at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
Senate Democrats want to know why Eric Blankenstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official, has been hired to an agency that enforces fair housing laws.

Even a puppet HUD should know better.

15 

Trump Officials Are Split Over Approach to North Korea Talks

Edward Wong at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
President Trump faces a choice on whether to grant concessions in return for a freeze on North Korea’s nuclear program or to insist on full denuclearization.

Diplomats should find these 'talks' side splitting.

16 

The 2020 Smear Campaign Is Underway

Lisa Lerer at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
In the On Politics newsletter: The disinformation is being trafficked not just by foreign trolls but also by American activists.

Some American activists.

17 

Trump Says Tanks Will Be on Display in Washington for July 4 

Michael D. Shear, Thomas Gibbons-Neff and John Ismay at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
The tanks will join a spectacle of the nation’s firepower, including a flyover by Air Force One. Critics say Mr. Trump is hijacking a nonpartisan celebration.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-114_Hellfire

Tanks are targets and quickly destroyed.

18 

Kamala Harris’s Secret Weapon: The Sisterhood of Alpha Kappa Alpha

Stephanie Saul at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
At a gathering of Alpha Kappa Alphas in Nashville, women expressed pride in her rise and others offered caution about what the campaign season might hold.

Everyone should have one.

19 

30 Year Mortgage Rates at 3.875%

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 17 hours ago
 
 
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Begin Risky Week Mortgage rates were slightly higher to start the new week, which is a pretty good outcome considering the underlying events. On Friday, we anticipated a pick-up in volatility as rates were at risk of reacting to any meaningful trade news from the G20 summit or any surprises in economic data. [*30YR FIXED - 3.875%*] emphasis added [image: Mortgage Rates] *Click on graph for larger image.* This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30 year fixed rates from three sources (MND, M... more » 

I want to build for cash.

20

Stephanie Grisham, Trump’s New Press Secretary, Literally Pushes for Press Access

Annie Karni at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
In a video, Ms. Grisham opens a path for American journalists to cover the president’s meeting with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. She has a bruise to show for it.

A new kind of 'running inteference'.


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Tuesday, July 2, 2019

@23:33, , 7/1/19

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1

Man Is Charged in Twitter Threat to Lynch Muslim Lawyer

Jacey Fortin at NYT > Politics - 36 minutes ago
A warrant has been issued for the arrest of Joseph Cecil Vandevere, 52. He is accused of threatening a man who is now running for office in Virginia.
 
True belief is not unique to Virginia.
 
2 

Trump in Asia: ‘We’re the Hottest Show in Town’

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
The president at times stretched, ignored or made up facts, but in Japan and North and South Korea, he pursued an agenda of breathtaking ambition.
 
Trump likes dramatic towers.
 
3 

Mercedes Schlapp Leaving White House Press Office to Join Trump Campaign

Maggie Haberman and Annie Karni at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Ms. Schlapp’s departure, which was expected as part of a press office shuffle, makes her the latest White House official to find a soft landing in the campaign or an outside group
 
Stockholm syndrome does not fit as well as conspiracy.
4

Democrats Angered by HUD’s Hiring of Trump Aide Who Quit After Racist Posts

Lola Fadulu and Glenn Thrush at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Senate Democrats want to know why Eric Blankenstein, a former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau official, has been hired to an agency that enforces fair housing laws.
 
 

Trump Officials Are Split Over Approach to North Korea Talks

Edward Wong at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
President Trump faces a choice on whether to grant concessions in return for a freeze on North Korea’s nuclear program or to insist on full denuclearization.
 
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
 
6 

The 2020 Smear Campaign Is Underway

Lisa Lerer at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
In the On Politics newsletter: The disinformation is being trafficked not just by foreign trolls but also by American activists.
 
I have noticed.
 
7 

Trump Says Tanks Will Be on Display in Washington for July 4

Michael D. Shear, Thomas Gibbons-Neff and John Ismay at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The tanks will join a spectacle of the nation’s firepower, including a flyover by Air Force One. Critics say Mr. Trump is hijacking a nonpartisan celebration.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Stalin
 
He liked military parades.
 
8 

Riding the Post-Debate Buzz With Kamala Harris’s Sorority Sisters

Stephanie Saul at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
At a gathering of Alpha Kappa Alphas in Nashville, women expressed pride in her rise and others offered caution about what the campaign season might hold.
 
Kamala Harris should not be president.
She is more than fond of power.
 
9 

30 Year Mortgage Rates at 3.875%

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 5 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Begin Risky Week Mortgage rates were slightly higher to start the new week, which is a pretty good outcome considering the underlying events. On Friday, we anticipated a pick-up in volatility as rates were at risk of reacting to any meaningful trade news from the G20 summit or any surprises in economic data. [*30YR FIXED - 3.875%*] emphasis added [image: Mortgage Rates] *Click on graph for larger image.* This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30 year fixed rates from three sources (MND, M... more » 
 
Interest is not troubling the housing market.
 
10 

Stephanie Grisham, Trump’s New Press Secretary, Literally Pushes for Press Access

Annie Karni at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
In a video, Ms. Grisham opens a path for American journalists to cover the president’s meeting with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. She has a bruise to show for it.
 
It looks like White Panther 
Or "The Great White Hope"
 
11 

Happy Canada Day

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 8 hours ago
Canada remains a good country to live in. There are a few countries, mostly northern European that have better statistics, but not too many. Outsiders tend to overestimate how good, however, and Americans tend to idealize Canada a bit too much. The key thing to understand about Canadian politics is that they are right wing […]
 
I can't do Canada.
 
12 

Russia Sanctions Froze His Fortune. Can the 4th Amendment Unlock It?

Ben Protess and William K. Rashbaum at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
A Manhattan investor and Trump donor with business ties to the heirs of Prince can’t get access to his money. A lawsuit says it amounts to an unreasonable seizure of property.
 
It should.
 
13 

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 9 hours ago
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down 35% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through May 31, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures. [image: Lumcber Prices]*Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.* Right now Random Lengths prices are down 35% from a year ago, and CME futures are down 33% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and pea... more » 
 
Yes.
 
14 

Construction Spending Declined in May

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 12 hours ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending declined in May: Construction spending during May 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,293.9 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,304.0 billion. The May figure is 2.3 percent below the May 2018 estimate of $1,324.3 billion. Both private and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $953.2 billion, 0.7 percent below the revised April estimate of $960.3 billion. ... In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted a... more » 
 
15 

ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.7 in June

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 13 hours ago
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI was at 51.7% in June, down from 52.1% in May. The employment index was at 54.5%, up from 53.7% last month, and the new orders index was at 50.0%, down from 52.7%. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June, and the overall economy grew for the 122nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM... more » 
 
16 

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May: Record Low National Delinquency Rate, Early Delinquency Rate Increasing

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 15 hours ago
Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to Black Knight, 3.36% of mortgages were delinquent in May, down from 3.64% in May 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.59% a year ago. This gives a total of 3.85% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: In May, Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Prepayments Highest Since 2007; Prepays on 2018 Vintage Loans Up Three Times Over Past Four Months Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its la... more » 
 
The wealthy are not suffering.
 
17 

Iran Breaches Critical Limit on Nuclear Fuel Set by 2015 Deal

David E. Sanger at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
Tehran also signaled that it now intends to enrich its nuclear fuel stockpile to a purer level, a provocative action that could move the country closer to being able to use the fuel for a weapon.
 
Trump is a bully.
 
18 

Ivanka Trump Tests Her Diplomatic Chops and Riles a Legion of Critics

Katie Rogers at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
President Trump’s elder daughter used a G20 summit and then the Demilitarized Zone to test her role as budding stateswoman for the administration.
 
She should leave it to the professionals. 
 
19 

Big Donors, Small Donors: Pete Buttigieg Has Courted Them All — Successfully

Reid J. Epstein and Thomas Kaplan at NYT > Politics - 17 hours ago
Mr. Buttigieg’s $24.8 million second-quarter total is the latest evidence that he has gone from a long shot to a serious candidate for the nomination in a matter of months.
 
He is not ripe yet. 
 
20 

What Trump’s Huawei Reversal Means for the Future of 5G

Andrew Ross Sorkin at NYT > Politics - 17 hours ago
Huawei is the top threat to American dominance in wireless technology. And the U.S. is woefully, even disgracefully, behind.
 
5G is an "Easter Egg Hunt".
The cyberwariors must proove a negative.
There may be no new "back door" or zero day flaw.
 
Huawei has won the 5G contest.
 
 
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Monday, July 1, 2019

@14:40, , 7/1/19

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1

Russia Sanctions Froze His Fortune. Can the 4th Amendment Unlock It?

Ben Protess and William K. Rashbaum at NYT > Politics - 4 seconds ago
A Manhattan investor and Trump donor with business ties to the heirs of Prince can’t get access to his money. A lawsuit says it amounts to an unreasonable seizure of property.
 
He should have access to his money.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
 
2 

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 24 minutes ago
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down 35% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through May 31, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures. [image: Lumcber Prices]*Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.* Right now Random Lengths prices are down 35% from a year ago, and CME futures are down 33% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and pea... more » 
 
Commercial single family construction is in trouble.
That does not displease me.
 
3 

Construction Spending Declined in May

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending declined in May: Construction spending during May 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,293.9 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,304.0 billion. The May figure is 2.3 percent below the May 2018 estimate of $1,324.3 billion. Both private and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $953.2 billion, 0.7 percent below the revised April estimate of $960.3 billion. ... In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted a... more » 
 
I want to build.   This is good news. 
 
4

ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.7 in June

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 4 hours ago
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI was at 51.7% in June, down from 52.1% in May. The employment index was at 54.5%, up from 53.7% last month, and the new orders index was at 50.0%, down from 52.7%. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June, and the overall economy grew for the 122nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM... more » 
 
Trump may not get another four years.  
 
5

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May: Record Low National Delinquency Rate, Early Delinquency Rate Increasing

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to Black Knight, 3.36% of mortgages were delinquent in May, down from 3.64% in May 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.59% a year ago. This gives a total of 3.85% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: In May, Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Prepayments Highest Since 2007; Prepays on 2018 Vintage Loans Up Three Times Over Past Four Months Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its la... more » 
 
The wealthy have money.
 
6 

Iran Breaches Critical Limit on Nuclear Fuel Under 2015 Deal

David E. Sanger at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The violation does not by itself give the country the material for a nuclear weapon, but it signals that Tehran may be willing to abandon the pact’s limits.
 
As expected.
 
7 

Ivanka Trump Tests Her Diplomatic Chops and Riles a Legion of Critics

Katie Rogers at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
President Trump’s elder daughter used a G20 summit and then the Demilitarized Zone to test her role as budding stateswoman for the administration.
 
Diplomacy is a real profession.
 
8 

Pete Buttigieg Raised $24.8 Million in Second Quarter, His Campaign Says

Thomas Kaplan at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Mr. Buttigieg’s total is the latest evidence that he has gone from a long shot to a serious candidate for the Democratic nomination in a matter of months.
 
Many gays have disposible income.
 
9 

What Trump’s Huawei Reversal Means for the Future of 5G

Andrew Ross Sorkin at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Huawei is the top threat to American dominance in wireless technology. And the U.S. is woefully, even disgracefully, behind.
 
Huawei is the current winner in the internet competition.
 
 Slash dot search:
 
10 

On Politics: Trump Visits North Korea

NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
Mr. Trump became the first sitting American commander in chief to set foot in the reclusive country.
 
Noise but glad to have it. 
 
11 

Kamala Harris and Classmates Were Bused Across Berkeley. The Experience Changed Them.

Nellie Bowles at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
Fellow Berkeley public school students remember the early days of the integration effort: “We were all just kids trying to figure it out on our own.”
 
It worked more than most.
 
12. 

In New Talks, U.S. May Settle for a Nuclear Freeze by North Korea

Michael Crowley and David E. Sanger at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
The idea taking shape inside the Trump administration would amount to negotiating a nuclear freeze that essentially enshrines the status quo, tacitly accepting the North as a nuclear power.
 
A freeze might be possible. 
 
13 

Ukraine Role Focuses New Attention on Giuliani’s Foreign Work

Kenneth P. Vogel at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
A Ukrainian-Russian developer says he hired the former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani to lobby. Mr. Giuliani says he never lobbied the U.S. government.
 
Giuliani is an evil man.
 
14 

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 18 hours ago
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of June 30, 2019 Monday: • At 10:00 AM: *ISM Manufacturing Index* for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 51.2, down from 52.1 in May. • At 10:00 AM: *Construction Spending* for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 23 and DOW futures are up 206 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $59.74 per barrel and Brent at $66.01 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $77 - so oil prices are down about 20% year-ov... more » 
 
I want to build.
 
15 

U.S. Envoy Swings Sledgehammer in East Jerusalem, and a Metaphor Is Born

David M. Halbfinger at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
The ambassador to Israel, David M. Friedman, opened an archaeological site, calling it “undeniable evidence” of Jewish historical claims to Jerusalem.
 
Archaeology matters only to historians.
The crusaders had Jerusalem once.
 
16 

Trump Restarts China Trade Talks, but the Two Sides Remain Far Apart

Alan Rappeport and Keith Bradsher at NYT > Politics - 21 hours ago
As the U.S. eased restrictions on China, the American president faced questions over whether he was giving up too much in return for vague promises.
 
It is only an armistace.
 
17 

For All the Talk of a Tea Party of the Left, Moderates Emerge as a Democratic Power

Julie Hirschfeld Davis at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
Liberals like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may get the attention, but a group of moderate Democrats in the House are proving more adept at wielding power.
 
"Fake news". 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2019

Tony Wikrent at Ian Welsh - 1 day ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2019 by Tony Wikrent Economics Action Group, North Carolina Democratic Party Progressive Caucus Strategic Political Economy These Three Firms Own Corporate America Jan Fichtner, Eelke Heemskerk, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, May 11, 2017 [The Conversation, via Alternet] Disrupting mainstream economics The new left economics: how a network of thinkers […]
 
Reason to think hard.
The facts may be real. 

For All the Talk of a Tea Party of the Left, Moderates Emerge as a Democratic Power

Julie Hirschfeld Davis at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Liberals like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may get the attention, but a group of moderate Democrats in the House are proving more adept at wielding power.
 
It should be Fake News. 

June 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions, Q2 2019 Transition Matrix

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
Note: Surferdude808 compiles an *unofficial* list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to errors and omissions. This is not intended as investment advice. Please contact CR with any errors. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2019. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdu... more » 
 
Yes.
 
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