Thursday, February 23, 2023

@21:40, 1/21/23

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1

Ian Welsh3 days ago
The World Europe Made, And Its Death
[image: The World Europe Made, And Its Death] Most people don’t really *get* just how extensive European conquest of the world was. The map’s a bit inaccurate over in Russia: most of Russia is “not Europe” and was conquered — most of it should be green, like North America. Likewise, Japan was conquered by the US, which is a European colony. Leaving aside their brutal war crimes, they were stupid to pick a fight with an industrialized continental power: there was never any chance of winning against the US, as Admiral Yamamoto told them. But the point is fairly simple: Europeans mad... read more
 
I disagree.
 
Mercantilism is unstable. 

2
Ian Welsh4 days ago
China’s Trade Surplus Grows, Including With the US
[image: China’s Trade Surplus Grows, Including With the US] There’s a lot of talk about friend-shoring and bringing industry back to the US and its allies, but the reality is quite different. China's trade surplus reached US$877.6 billion for 2022, an increase of 30% of the already record high year of 2021. This is the biggest trade surplus ever achieved by one country in human history. Trade surplus with the US accounted for almost half at US$ 404 billion. pic.twitter.com/P37rbLGczI — America-China Watcher (@PandemicTruther) January 14, 2023 The bottom line, right now, is that if ... read more
 
Nothing can save China from demographic collapse
 
3.
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Fundraiser Ends Friday
[image: Fundraiser Ends Friday] Thanks to everyone who has given, I appreciate it greatly. We’re about $1,300 short of the final goal. If we hit it I’ll write an article on reasons for hope. Either way, again, I’m very grateful. *SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE TO IAN’S 2022 FUNDRAISER* read more
 
There is less noise from the north.
 
4
Ian Welsh6 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 15, 2023
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 15, 2023] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 15, 2023 by Tony Wikrent [TW: Dear readers: I was on the road much of this past week, so had limited time and access. If this wrap seems a bit short and abbreviated, it’s because it is. Should be back to normal this coming week.] *Life Lessons from 1,000 Years* [Curiosity Chronicle, via The Big Picture 1-13-2023] I asked a number of 90-year-olds a simple question: “If you could speak to your 32-year-old self, what advice would you give?” In total, there was over 1,000 years o... read more
 
Nothing new.
 
5
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Almost Nothing
[image: Almost Nothing] Words are always a problem, and never more so when discussing spirituality/meditation/cultivation. There are many, many different types of meditation, designed to do very different things. There are forms of breath meditation whose primary purpose is to calm the body. When you do so, you may notice certain things about reality/yourself, but knowing “how to meditate” doesn’t mean you have achieved any level of insight or awakening; it’s just a technical skill. But almost all of what I would consider real spirituality is about “knowing thyself.” This is prima... read more
 
I go there often.
 
7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
America Will Lose Its Scientific Ascendance To China & When Disruptive Science Will Recover
[image: America Will Lose Its Scientific Ascendance To China & When Disruptive Science Will Recover] And thinking otherwise is tiresome and delusional. From Nature: Young Chinese scientists who got their PhDs overseas and returned to China as part of a state-run talent drive published more papers after their return than did their peers who stayed abroad. The productivity bump can be explained by returnees’ access to greater funding and an abundant research workforce, according to the authors of an analysis published in *Science*1*. *The findings come as geopolitical competition bet... read more
 
Faith hides science.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Fundraiser Update
[image: Fundraiser Update] We’ve raised approximately $8,400, when including the $2,300 from the emergency fundraiser earlier in 2022. That puts us past $6,500 and a summary article on the world’s position and prospects, and $1,600 from the $11,000 final goal and threshold for an article on reasons for hope. I’ll end the fundraiser sometime next week, whether we’ve achieved the goal or not. Generally speaking, money simply tells me, like everyone, that what I do is valued and I should do more of it. As always, if you are in a position where money is short for essentials like food,... read more
 
Old news.
 
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Why The American Radical Right Is Powerful And The American Left Is Meaningless
[image: Why The American Radical Right Is Powerful And The American Left Is Meaningless] Watching “left wing” reactions to the Speaker’s election in the US House was instructive. Too many people were appalled when I pointed out that the left, the “Squad” specifically, could have done the same thing to get concessions in 2024. If you were appalled at the idea then you are not a member of the left in any useful way. (That statement and this post will occasion another torrent of abuse in the comments for me to throw into spam, and laugh about. If you think that after 30 years online... read more
 
Dreams, wishes, and suspicisions.
 
10 
Ian Welsh1 week ago
no title
[image: no title] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 8, 2023 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *Why Petulant Oligarchs Rule Our World* Paul Krugman [New York Times, via The Big Picture 1-3-2023] …the lesson I took from my moment of pettiness was that privilege corrupts, that it very easily breeds a sense of entitlement. And surely, to paraphrase Lord Acton, enormous privilege corrupts enormously, in part because the very privileged are normally surrounded by people who would never dare tell them that they’re behaving badly. When an immensely rich man, acc... read more
 
The political  machines do not allow a third machine.power
 
11
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
Sooner is better.  As soon as you can is best.

12
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
The Republican House Speaker Votes Show Progressive’s Disbelief In Their Own Legitimacy
[image: The Republican House Speaker Votes Show Progressive’s Disbelief In Their Own Legitimacy] So, 4 days, 13 votes as of this writing. A small band of right wing House members are holding candidates hostage. To win the bloc of rebels thwarting his rise, McCarthy was apparently prepared to agree to conditions that he had not been previously willing to accept. That includes reinstating a rule that would allow a single lawmaker to force a vote to remove the speaker, effectively placing himself at the mercy of his detractors who could trigger a vote at any point. McCarthy and his a... read more
 
The power of a leader depends on the supporting majority'
An executive has no power of its own.

13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Some Good Covid News From France
[image: Some Good Covid News From France] They are going to put CO2 monitors in all classrooms, with a limit of 800ppm. We offer a translation into English of our synoptic on the new French environmental code relating to the measurement of CO2 in schools. A PDF version is available at https://t.co/R2WmMULY69 This is intended for foreigners who have expressed an interest in this new code. https://t.co/vuQ4gJCu9y pic.twitter.com/UioyBUnUWM — NOUS AÉRONS (@nousaerons) January 3, 2023 This sort of thing is what has needed to be done for a long time now. We need to clean up our air th... read more
 
Fresh air aids masks.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Canadian Housing And Immigration Policy
[image: Canadian Housing And Immigration Policy] So, Canada has done two interesting things in the last couple years to deal with the effects of Covid. The first is let in a lot more immigrants: Canada added more than 431,000 new permanent residents last year, the largest annual increase in its history, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seeks to ease the country’s labor shortages. The new admissions met the 2022 target set by Trudeau’s government and exceeded the prior year’s record of about 401,000 newcomers, according to a release from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada ... read more
 
Housing costs and rules have paused Canadian immigration.

15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
As China Rises, Europe Falls
[image: As China Rises, Europe Falls] Some interesting news in the semiconductor wars: BREAKING: Netherlands firm ASML's stocks have been falling since China's Huawei unveiled a new patent in Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography, confirming the worst fears of the firm's executives who have opposed US restrictions (Motley Fool). — SGM World News (@SGMWorldnews) December 31, 2022 Now, ASML had indeed opposed US restrictions. They said explicitly that in the case of sanctions, China would learn how to make the machines themselves. Europe’s technological lead is being destroyed by followi... read more
 
China cannot fight itself.
 
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Obvious Predictions For 2023
[image: Obvious Predictions For 2023] *Covid *will not miraculously end. New variants will continue to be born, and they will generally be optimized for immune escape and damage. Hospitals in most countries will continue to be under high strain, because governments will keep pretending Covid is over when it is not and that it doesn’t ravage people’s immune systems. I find this chart of Canada’s Covid experience applies to most countries in spirit. *This will likely be the warmest year on record*, but the coldest year of the rest of your life and if it isn’t, it’ll be in the top 5 o... read more
 
China is comatose, The Russian Empire will not be borne again.

17
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023 by Tony Wikrent *The dark side* *Dress Rehearsal: Trump’s attempt almost two years ago to undermine the 2020 election reads today like a blueprint drawn for a future autocrat.* Fintan O’Toole, January 19, 2023 issue [The New York Review] To understand the attempted coup that culminated in the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, it is useful to go back to Donald Trump’s immediate response to the election he actually won, in 2016. The head of his transition team, ... read more
 
Old news.
 
18
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
19
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
How To Relax, Change & Be Free
[image: How To Relax, Change & Be Free] Jiddu Krishnamurti was a lecturer and teacher for almost 50 years. He was famous, there are a lot of books transcribing his talks, and he maybe got one person enlightened. Jiddu was the anti-guru, guru. He didn’t want to give concrete instructions, because when people follow concrete instructions they aren’t free: they’ve got a system and they’re just enacting the system. Reading him is frustrating. I’ve read his lectures multiple times over the years, and each time understood a bit more of what he was saying. One main point is that everyone... read more
 
Faith is of the external.  
It is learned by study
 
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs
[image: A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs] Yeah, it is mostly this simple: It really is the imperialist West vs. the entire world This is how they voted on a UN resolution calling for a new international economic order based on equity, sovereign equality, and cooperation, opposing unilateral sanctions and advocating for debt relief for the Global South https://t.co/veNO3uMdC5 pic.twitter.com/wy6amH7TUm — Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) December 15, 2022 This is pretty much the map for UN resolutions aimed at Russia, too. As I’ve noted before the bottom line is that if you... read more
 
Paint is easy.
 
 
 
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Tuesday, January 17, 2023

@10:48, 1/5/23

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1

Ian Welsh1 day ago
Canadian Housing And Immigration Policy
[image: Canadian Housing And Immigration Policy] So, Canada has done two interesting things in the last couple years to deal with the effects of Covid. The first is let in a lot more immigrants: Canada added more than 431,000 new permanent residents last year, the largest annual increase in its history, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seeks to ease the country’s labor shortages. The new admissions met the 2022 target set by Trudeau’s government and exceeded the prior year’s record of about 401,000 newcomers, according to a release from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada ... read more
 
Ian Welsh is not happy.   As usual.
 
2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
As China Rises, Europe Falls
[image: As China Rises, Europe Falls] Some interesting news in the semiconductor wars: BREAKING: Netherlands firm ASML's stocks have been falling since China's Huawei unveiled a new patent in Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography, confirming the worst fears of the firm's executives who have opposed US restrictions (Motley Fool). — SGM World News (@SGMWorldnews) December 31, 2022 Now, ASML had indeed opposed US restrictions. They said explicitly that in the case of sanctions, China would learn how to make the machines themselves. Europe’s technological lead is being destroyed by followi... read more
 
The Republican party  is foolish.
 
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Obvious Predictions For 2023
[image: Obvious Predictions For 2023] *Covid *will not miraculously end. New variants will continue to be born, and they will generally be optimized for immune escape and damage. Hospitals in most countries will continue to be under high strain, because governments will keep pretending Covid is over when it is not and that it doesn’t ravage people’s immune systems. I find this chart of Canada’s Covid experience applies to most countries in spirit. *This will likely be the warmest year on record*, but the coldest year of the rest of your life and if it isn’t, it’ll be in the top 5 o... read more
 
 Ian Welsh is not happy.   As usual.
 
4
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023 by Tony Wikrent *The dark side* *Dress Rehearsal: Trump’s attempt almost two years ago to undermine the 2020 election reads today like a blueprint drawn for a future autocrat.* Fintan O’Toole, January 19, 2023 issue [The New York Review] To understand the attempted coup that culminated in the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, it is useful to go back to Donald Trump’s immediate response to the election he actually won, in 2016. The head of his transition team, ... read more
 
Iritations . . ,
 
5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.     As soon as you can is best.
 
6
Ian Welsh6 days ago
How To Relax, Change & Be Free
[image: How To Relax, Change & Be Free] Jiddu Krishnamurti was a lecturer and teacher for almost 50 years. He was famous, there are a lot of books transcribing his talks, and he maybe got one person enlightened. Jiddu was the anti-guru, guru. He didn’t want to give concrete instructions, because when people follow concrete instructions they aren’t free: they’ve got a system and they’re just enacting the system. Reading him is frustrating. I’ve read his lectures multiple times over the years, and each time understood a bit more of what he was saying. One main point is that everyone... read more
 
Worth a try.
 
7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs
[image: A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs] Yeah, it is mostly this simple: It really is the imperialist West vs. the entire world This is how they voted on a UN resolution calling for a new international economic order based on equity, sovereign equality, and cooperation, opposing unilateral sanctions and advocating for debt relief for the Global South https://t.co/veNO3uMdC5 pic.twitter.com/wy6amH7TUm — Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) December 15, 2022 This is pretty much the map for UN resolutions aimed at Russia, too. As I’ve noted before the bottom line is that if you... read more
 
The governments of the world are not wise.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
A New Age Of Vertical Integration
[image: A New Age Of Vertical Integration] There was a time when companies preferred vertical integration: they wanted to own their supply chain. Then, for a long time, the mantra was to concentrate on one’s core business and let other specialists take care of all the non-core parts of your business. Well… The reason vertical farming failed is that if you want to do it you also need to control your power source. In a world where civilization is slowly collapsing, you need vertical integration.https://t.co/jXtY1GOKg5 — Ian Welsh (@iwelsh) December 25, 2022 This is no longer viable... read more
 
Supply chains are disturbed.
 
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022 by Tony Wikrent [Twitter, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-23-2022] Justin Welby, as Archbishop of Canterbury, was pontificating on Twitter yesterday. I noted he said he said ‘The Magnificat turns the world upside down’. I agree, it does. So trust me, this is all about economics, and why the Church is failing on this key issue. A thread…. — Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) December 23, 2022 The Magnificat turns the world upside down. A young girl in an unknown ... read more
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nullius_in_verba
 
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Merry Christmas
[image: Merry Christmas] I hope you’re having a good one, and if you aren’t, consider my thoughts with you, for they are. read more
 
I had a good solstace.
Happy new year.
 
11
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Rather delayed today. Used to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
12
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)
[image: The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)] Back in August of this year Cheryl Sandberg stepped down as Chief Operating Officer of Meta, . I’d been keeping a lazy eye of Facebook and Meta for a while: the organization felt sick to me, not in terms of ethics, but in terms of health. Sandberg jumping was a sign: the most important insider other than the founder and CEO leaving. Then, this week: Industry icon John Carmack has announced that he's leaving META. "We have a ridiculous amount of people and resources, but we constantly self-sabotage and squander effort." https://t.co/xl1FQkFYu... read more
 
Facebook is fine.
 
13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope
[image: Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope] Last of three parts. Here's the final episode of my interview with @iwelsh. In it, we discuss the mess that Twitter has become, and Ian shares what gives him hope. Ian Welsh on Twitter Madness (Part 3 of 3), by @costrike https://t.co/drcygtQ3VC — costrike (@costrike) December 21, 2022 *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* read more
 
I did listen to them agree with themselves.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse
[image: It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse] Earthworm Edition: …they estimated a decline in earthworm abundance of between 33% and 41% in the last quarter of a century, the period for which the best data was available… Dr Matt Shardlow, of the charity Buglife, said earthworms were essential to healthy soils and productive ecosystems and the decline in UK earthworm populations – at a rate of about 15% per decade since 1960 – was “deeply alarming”. “Devastated earthworm populations in arable soils are to be expected due to the widespread use of toxic... read more
 
Many things are temperature dependent.
Many others depend on things that are dependent on temperature.
 
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China
[image: Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China] Back in November I wrote that China’s Zero Covid policy was the right thing done the wrong way. Briefly after, consequent to some protests against Zero-Covid, China basically abandoned the policy. The main problem is the same that exists in almost every country: even the most competent elites in the world today are, when not graded on a scale, incompetent buffoons incapable of running anything properly. Zero-Covid should have been about making necessary infrastructure changes to clean air so that over time restrictions could b... read more
 
Big numbers beget big numbers.
 
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Life In The Absence of Coercion
[image: Life In The Absence of Coercion] On Friday I wrote an article which asked two questions: one about what you’d do if you couldn’t be easily coerced with violence: Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. The second was: What if you didn’t need to eat or drink and you cold and heat didn’t bother you or harm you and you didn’t get sick? You might still want shelter or a home or objects like books or computers, and objects like cosmetics would ... read more
 
Coertion has been less effective recently on me.
 
17
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *We need the return of the state * [Tax Research UK, via Naked Capitalism 12-14-2022] Neoliberalism is built on lies. For decades the deceit at its core has been ignored because it appeared to deliver prosperity. It does not any more. That is why everything is unravelling. The biggest lie that neoliberalism promotes is that all value is created by private sector business, which claim is contrasted with a claim that gov... read more
 
Alternative news.  
It may increase one's understanding though it is only distantly related to events.
 
18
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to the week’s posts. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating. )* read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.  As soon as you can is best.
 
19
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible
[image: Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible] There are two main types of coercion in the world. *The first is violence.* If you don’t do what someone else wants, they will do something physical to you. So, imagine if that was impossible. Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. What would change about society if this were true? What would change about how individuals act? *The second is need.* What if you didn’t need to eat or drin... read more
 
Such a world is unstable.
Force appears to work.  
Its application pleases a few twisted individuals.
When there are methods to untwist those individuals the world will be better.

20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China
[image: Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China] I did an interview few weeks ago with Chris Oestereich, which he’s putting up in three parts. I listened to part three today and, while I rarely say this, I thought it was quite good and if you’re interested in any of these topics, probably worth your while. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* *Listen to the podcast here.* read more
 
Theodore Roosevelt as a boy was advised to speak softly and carry a big stick.
Governments including the U.S. fail to comprehend the U.S. stick.
 
 
 
||

 

Sunday, January 1, 2023

@22:10, 12/30/22

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1

Ian Welsh13 hours ago
How To Relax, Change & Be Free
[image: How To Relax, Change & Be Free] Jiddu Krishnamurti was a lecturer and teacher for almost 50 years. He was famous, there are a lot of books transcribing his talks, and he maybe got one person enlightened. Jiddu was the anti-guru, guru. He didn’t want to give concrete instructions, because when people follow concrete instructions they aren’t free: they’ve got a system and they’re just enacting the system. Reading him is frustrating. I’ve read his lectures multiple times over the years, and each time understood a bit more of what he was saying. One main point is that everyone... read more
 
 People pair.

2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs
[image: A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs] Yeah, it is mostly this simple: It really is the imperialist West vs. the entire world This is how they voted on a UN resolution calling for a new international economic order based on equity, sovereign equality, and cooperation, opposing unilateral sanctions and advocating for debt relief for the Global South https://t.co/veNO3uMdC5 pic.twitter.com/wy6amH7TUm — Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) December 15, 2022 This is pretty much the map for UN resolutions aimed at Russia, too. As I’ve noted before the bottom line is that if you... read more
 
Only one world.
Many religions.
 
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
A New Age Of Vertical Integration
[image: A New Age Of Vertical Integration] There was a time when companies preferred vertical integration: they wanted to own their supply chain. Then, for a long time, the mantra was to concentrate on one’s core business and let other specialists take care of all the non-core parts of your business. Well… The reason vertical farming failed is that if you want to do it you also need to control your power source. In a world where civilization is slowly collapsing, you need vertical integration.https://t.co/jXtY1GOKg5 — Ian Welsh (@iwelsh) December 25, 2022 This is no longer viable... read more
 
Vertical farming depends on technical civilization.
 
4
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022 by Tony Wikrent [Twitter, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-23-2022] Justin Welby, as Archbishop of Canterbury, was pontificating on Twitter yesterday. I noted he said he said ‘The Magnificat turns the world upside down’. I agree, it does. So trust me, this is all about economics, and why the Church is failing on this key issue. A thread…. — Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) December 23, 2022 The Magnificat turns the world upside down. A young girl in an unknown ... read more
 
Trump is a piker.
 
5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Merry Christmas
[image: Merry Christmas] I hope you’re having a good one, and if you aren’t, consider my thoughts with you, for they are. read more
 
Happy new year.
 
6
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Rather delayed today. Used to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)
[image: The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)] Back in August of this year Cheryl Sandberg stepped down as Chief Operating Officer of Meta, . I’d been keeping a lazy eye of Facebook and Meta for a while: the organization felt sick to me, not in terms of ethics, but in terms of health. Sandberg jumping was a sign: the most important insider other than the founder and CEO leaving. Then, this week: Industry icon John Carmack has announced that he's leaving META. "We have a ridiculous amount of people and resources, but we constantly self-sabotage and squander effort." https://t.co/xl1FQkFYu... read more
 
Facebook was never stable.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope
[image: Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope] Last of three parts. Here's the final episode of my interview with @iwelsh. In it, we discuss the mess that Twitter has become, and Ian shares what gives him hope. Ian Welsh on Twitter Madness (Part 3 of 3), by @costrike https://t.co/drcygtQ3VC — costrike (@costrike) December 21, 2022 *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* read more
 
They mumble and skip their assumptions.
 
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse
[image: It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse] Earthworm Edition: …they estimated a decline in earthworm abundance of between 33% and 41% in the last quarter of a century, the period for which the best data was available… Dr Matt Shardlow, of the charity Buglife, said earthworms were essential to healthy soils and productive ecosystems and the decline in UK earthworm populations – at a rate of about 15% per decade since 1960 – was “deeply alarming”. “Devastated earthworm populations in arable soils are to be expected due to the widespread use of toxic... read more
 
Optimized systems are delicate.
 
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China
[image: Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China] Back in November I wrote that China’s Zero Covid policy was the right thing done the wrong way. Briefly after, consequent to some protests against Zero-Covid, China basically abandoned the policy. The main problem is the same that exists in almost every country: even the most competent elites in the world today are, when not graded on a scale, incompetent buffoons incapable of running anything properly. Zero-Covid should have been about making necessary infrastructure changes to clean air so that over time restrictions could b... read more
 
Optimized systems are delicate.
 
11 
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Life In The Absence of Coercion
[image: Life In The Absence of Coercion] On Friday I wrote an article which asked two questions: one about what you’d do if you couldn’t be easily coerced with violence: Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. The second was: What if you didn’t need to eat or drink and you cold and heat didn’t bother you or harm you and you didn’t get sick? You might still want shelter or a home or objects like books or computers, and objects like cosmetics would ... read more
 
 
Life is not optimized and so is not delicate.
Be pragmatic.
 
12
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *We need the return of the state * [Tax Research UK, via Naked Capitalism 12-14-2022] Neoliberalism is built on lies. For decades the deceit at its core has been ignored because it appeared to deliver prosperity. It does not any more. That is why everything is unravelling. The biggest lie that neoliberalism promotes is that all value is created by private sector business, which claim is contrasted with a claim that gov... read more
 
Government should be pragmatic.
There is no ideal toward which to strive beyond equality.
 
13
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to the week’s posts. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating. )* read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible
[image: Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible] There are two main types of coercion in the world. *The first is violence.* If you don’t do what someone else wants, they will do something physical to you. So, imagine if that was impossible. Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. What would change about society if this were true? What would change about how individuals act? *The second is need.* What if you didn’t need to eat or drin... read more
 
I have tried the experiment.
I am neither a beast or a god.
I am one among others.
 
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China
[image: Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China] I did an interview few weeks ago with Chris Oestereich, which he’s putting up in three parts. I listened to part three today and, while I rarely say this, I thought it was quite good and if you’re interested in any of these topics, probably worth your while. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* *Listen to the podcast here.* read more
 
Billions will die.
I will do what I can.
Vote.
 
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce
[image: Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce] An estimate, but… 2 million to 4 million full-time workers are out of the labor force due to long Covid. (To be counted in the labor force, an individual must have a job or be actively looking for work.) The midpoint of her estimate — 3 million workers — accounts for 1.8% of the entire U.S. civilian labor force. The figure may “sound unbelievably high” but is consistent with the impact in other major economies like the United Kingdom, Bach wrote in an August report. The figures are also likely conservative, since... read more
 
Get vaccinated.
Wearing a mask is a good idea.

17
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
2022 Fundraiser
[image: 2022 Fundraiser] It’s been a tough year for the world and a tough year at Chez Ian (cancer, housing issues, blah.) Personally, I’m just beginning to recover from cancer treatment, though some of it will be ongoing, and sucking, for another six to twelve months. China, deciding to the right thing (Zero Covid) stupid, is now releasing some restrictions and that’s going to go badly. Russia invaded Ukraine, ground forward and will likely wind up with less than it’d like and more than the West wanted. Europe has been the big loser in the Ukraine war, which many of us predicted, ... read more
 
Charity is a private act.
 
18
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *“The People Cheering For Humanity’s End”* [The Atlantic, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-8-2022] “From Silicon Valley boardrooms to rural communes to academic philosophy departments, a seemingly inconceivable idea is being seriously discussed: that the end of humanity’s reign on Earth is imminent, and that we should welcome it. The revolt against humanity is still new enough to appear outlandish, but it has already spread beyond the fringes ... read more
 
The Republican party is politically wrong.
 
19
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to this week’s posts. read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
Happy new year.
 
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage
[image: Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage] There are two types of advantages. A comparative advantage is when you have or can produce more of something than someone else. (Person, country, whatever.) An absolute advantage is when you have or can do or produce something others can’t. This can be threshold matter: in World War II the Allies had more than enough oil and the Axis didn’t have enough to run their war machine. While in numbers terms it looked like a comparative advantage, it was actually an absolute advantage: it strangled Axis production and their ability... read more

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond#Popular_science_works
A place to start.
https://zeihan.com/
https://zeihan.com/newsletter/
Another view.  A patriotic view.
He has a narrow and short sighted view because of his audience.

I wish you joy.


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Saturday, December 24, 2022

@22:51, 12/12/22

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1

Ian Welsh13 hours ago
Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce
[image: Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce] An estimate, but… 2 million to 4 million full-time workers are out of the labor force due to long Covid. (To be counted in the labor force, an individual must have a job or be actively looking for work.) The midpoint of her estimate — 3 million workers — accounts for 1.8% of the entire U.S. civilian labor force. The figure may “sound unbelievably high” but is consistent with the impact in other major economies like the United Kingdom, Bach wrote in an August report. The figures are also likely conservative, since... read more
 
I need some proof.
I don't see any.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_COVID
A single definition is a place to start.
 
2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
2022 Fundraiser
[image: 2022 Fundraiser] It’s been a tough year for the world and a tough year at Chez Ian (cancer, housing issues, blah.) Personally, I’m just beginning to recover from cancer treatment, though some of it will be ongoing, and sucking, for another six to twelve months. China, deciding to the right thing (Zero Covid) stupid, is now releasing some restrictions and that’s going to go badly. Russia invaded Ukraine, ground forward and will likely wind up with less than it’d like and more than the West wanted. Europe has been the big loser in the Ukraine war, which many of us predicted, ... read more
 
Ian Welsh is the center of his world.
 
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *“The People Cheering For Humanity’s End”* [The Atlantic, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-8-2022] “From Silicon Valley boardrooms to rural communes to academic philosophy departments, a seemingly inconceivable idea is being seriously discussed: that the end of humanity’s reign on Earth is imminent, and that we should welcome it. The revolt against humanity is still new enough to appear outlandish, but it has already spread beyond the fringes ... read more
 
Capitalism is ugly to those who are not capitalists.
 
4
Ian Welsh4 days ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to this week’s posts. read more
 
Merry Christmass
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage
[image: Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage] There are two types of advantages. A comparative advantage is when you have or can produce more of something than someone else. (Person, country, whatever.) An absolute advantage is when you have or can do or produce something others can’t. This can be threshold matter: in World War II the Allies had more than enough oil and the Axis didn’t have enough to run their war machine. While in numbers terms it looked like a comparative advantage, it was actually an absolute advantage: it strangled Axis production and their ability... read more
 
It is ultimately a matter of law.
 
6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Podcast Interview On US Politics and the Midterms
[image: Podcast Interview On US Politics and the Midterms] I sat down with Chris Oestereich for a fairly long interview. He’s split it into three parts and the first is primarily about American politics. You can listen here. *DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE* read more
 
Not in public.  
.The Republican party is insane.

7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Decline Of the European Gardner
[image: The Decline Of the European Gardner] A while back EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said “Europe is a garden.” He was fairly widely attacked, but I agree. Some parts are much less of a garden, but Europe is a garden. However, Europe’s status as a garden is based on factors which are no longer true: 1) Vast military superiority. 2) Vast productive superiority 3) Vast technological superiority at producing and fighting. This needs some unpacking. Prosperity is just how much goods and services you have. If a society has relatively low inequality, and enough goods and se... read more
 
It is just frosty weather in the European Garden.
To continue the metaphore the weeding season will come again.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Professional Management Class war on workers* *Railroading workers* [Popular Information, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 11-29-2022] “The dispute boils down to one issue: paid sick leave. … Railroad companies have adamantly refused to include any short-term paid leave. That means rail workers must report to work, even when they are sick, or forfeit their pay. “It’s an insane and cruel system, and these guys are fed up with it,” Peter Kennedy, c... read more
 
Old news.
The strike was arbitrated.  
The Tories will not kill the National Health System.
It will not kill the Tories to pay the nurses.

9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
 Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.

10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Is It Dangerous To Hit Targets Inside Russia?
[image: Is It Dangerous To Hit Targets Inside Russia?] Now, to be clear, a few targets have been hit in fairly minor ways, but let’s assume a real strike with Western provided weapons. The opinion below has been stated often. Latvian FM: NATO ‘Should Not Fear’ Moscow’s Response to Strikes Inside Russia by Kyle Anzalone@KyleAnzalone_ https://t.co/IHRPgrH6lh pic.twitter.com/0llLUUkggI — Antiwar.com (@Antiwarcom) December 1, 2022 So, thought exercise. During the Iraq war another country gives Iraq missiles capable of striking within the continental USA and Iraq launches them and doe... read more
 
The U.S. response was to stomp Iraq flat and to follow up with a futile religeous war in Afghanistan. 

11
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
US House Passes Bill Forcing Railway Workers To Not Strike
[image: US House Passes Bill Forcing Railway Workers To Not Strike] The bill makes them take a deal they had rejected before. Of particular note is that the bill gives them one sick day a year. Democrats voting against were: Chu-CA, DeSaulnier-CA, Golden-ME, Norcross-NJ, Peltola-AK, Pocan-WI, Tlaib-MI & Torres-CA. I note that AOC did not vote against. I was initially hopeful, but I think it’s now undeniable that she’s performatively left-wing only, she cannot be counted on. The House then passed a separate bill which would give the railway workers 7 sick days and defenders of Dem... read more
 
There will be no new civil war yet.
 
12
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
China’s Zero-Covid Is The Right Policy Done Stupid (or How China/The West Could Kill Covid)
[image: China’s Zero-Covid Is The Right Policy Done Stupid (or How China/The West Could Kill Covid)] Imagine policy on two axis. Good vs. Bad policy, and done well vs. done badly. Invading Iraq was bad policy, and it was done badly beyond the initial conquest. Quantitative easing was bad policy (unless you were very rich, it was good for the rich and bad for everyone else) and it was done well: it saved the rich then made them much richer. (They aren’t concerned about long term downsides.) Social Security or Medicare or Canada’s Universal Health care system (when first created a... read more
 
Quaranteen did not work against the black death.
It will not work against Covid-19.
 
13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
The Decline & Fall Of The Soviet Union
[image: The Decline & Fall Of The Soviet Union] Our society seems fascinated by the fall of empires and nations. You rarely see a book on the “birth” of Rome, say, it’s the collapse we care about. In this I’m a bit odd, I prefer the creation period, the early years when everything goes right, to the fall, but it’s important to see that death precedes birth. The Czars fall, the Soviets rise… The Soviets fall, and after some birth pangs, Russia rises. But when considering the fall, one should also remember the rise. We act as if the late period, which is almost inevitably full of cor... read more
 
Pragmatism is the only way that works so far.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *8 billion and counting* [ABC, via The Big Picture 11-22-2022] This week, the world’s population ticks over a historic milestone. But in the next century, society will be reshaped dramatically — and soon we’ll hit a decline we’ll never reverse *The incredible shrinking future of college* [Vox, via The Big Picture 11-23-2022] The population of college-age Americans is about to crash. It will change higher educati... read more
 
Demography is real.
 
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you canis best.
 
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Happy Thanksgiving
[image: Happy Thanksgiving] To American friends. I hope you have a good one. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
It can always be better.   I will try again.
 
17
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Why Twitter Has Been Marvelous
[image: Why Twitter Has Been Marvelous] I try not to write about topics where a lot of other people have said what I’d say, or, indeed, written better than I would. The takeover by Musk of Twitter is one of those topics. There have been plenty of excellent articles on what it means and on how Musk could really screw up Twitter by destroying the feeling of safety which advertisers require and by misunderstanding that the users are the product, not the customers. I’ve been on Twitter since August of 2008 (@iwelsh). I visit almost every day and for many years I spent a lot of time the... read more
 
Twitter has been agressively social.  The agression must stop.
 
18
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Politics Series: Foreign Affairs
[image: Politics Series: Foreign Affairs] (Previous: Government) (Introduction and Table of Contents) Clausewitz wrote “war is a continuation of policy by other means.” Foreign affairs are government by other means. They are attempts to control what people do in other countries: what their policies are, how they govern themselves, and often enough, who is in charge. In foreign affairs, the government trying to control the actions of another government doesn’t have full direct control, though it can have some control. Take “free trade” and International Monetary Fund (IMF) “struc... read more
 
"Form a commitee and see what can be done by talking"
 
19
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Here’s WHY your inbox is a dumpster fire of fundraising spam, and what we can do about it.* Will Easton, November 18, 2022 [DailyKos] Over the past couple cycles here, certain Democratic consulting firms, candidates & organizations have simply decided that it’s in their best interests to sell, rent, swap & trade your email address around the ecosystem, without bothering to ask you first. So if you’ve contributed to one campaign … you’re going t... read more
 
Things change.
 
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
Merry Christmass.
 
 
 
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